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RegGuheert
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:05 am

WetEV wrote:Show me where the wind blew the ice. I don't see where it went.
You pretend that the Antarctic Sea Ice has melted between last decade and this decade. In fact, that is farthest from the truth. In fact, in September, 2014, Antarctic Sea Ice set the ALL TIME RECORD in the satellite record at over 20 MILLION SQUARE KILOMETERS:
The single-day maximum extent this year was reached on Sept. 20, according to NSIDC data, when the sea ice covered 7.78 million square miles (20.14 million square kilometers). This year's five-day average maximum was reached on Sept. 22, when sea ice covered 7.76 million square miles (20.11 million square kilometers), according to NSIDC.
Again, here is what happened last September, according to the National Sea Ice Data Center:
NSIDC wrote:The early maximum appears to be the result of an intense wind pattern in September, spanning nearly half of the continent from the Wilkes Land area to the Weddell Sea, and centered on the Amundsen Sea. Stronger than average low pressure in this area, coupled with high pressure near the Falkland Islands, and near the southern tip of New Zealand in the Pacific Ocean, created two regions of persistent northwesterly winds. Sea ice extent decreased in the areas where the northwesterly winds reached the ice front.
What happens with sea ice is that it gets blown by the wind. When the wind blows strongly against the ice front, it compresses the ice into a smaller extent.

They continued their narrative in their December, 2016, report:
NSIDC wrote:When the westerly wind pattern broke down in November, winds in several areas of Antarctica started to blow from the north. Over a broad area near Wilkes Land, the ice edge was pushed toward the continent.
Bolding mine.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:13 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:Show me where the wind blew the ice. I don't see where it went.
You pretend that the Antarctic Sea Ice has melted between last decade and this decade.


I make no such pretense. Stop avoiding my question. Record low Antarctic sea ice. Where did all the Antarctic sea ice go?


RegGuheert wrote:In fact, that is farthest from the truth.


That isn't what I said. Stop avoiding my question. Where did all the Antarctic sea ice go?


RegGuheert wrote:September, 2014, Antarctic Sea Ice set the ALL TIME RECORD in the satellite record at over 20 MILLION SQUARE KILOMETERS


Yes. Record high, then a record low. A rising trend? A falling trend? I'd say no to both. Something different. Maybe you should try to understand rather than try to spin. Stop avoiding my question. Where did all the Antarctic sea ice go?


RegGuheert wrote:What happens with sea ice is that it gets blown by the wind. When the wind blows strongly against the ice front, it compresses the ice into a smaller extent.


I don't disagree that happens. I do not see that as an explanation for a record low Antarctic Sea. Here is a visual aid for anyone with an interest:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor

Select Antarctic, and for product select "Seaice Drift Vector"
Set the time to say January 1, 2017, and click the play button.

Watch the ice move, and tell me where the ice went.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:17 pm

RegGuheert wrote:There's nothing fake about the news that the Great Barrier Reef is healthy and just experiencing a normal response to a large El Nino:


breitbart is another fake news site.

Want to convince? Wrong source.

[edit: fixed quoting]
Last edited by WetEV on Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:04 am

BTW: thanks for pointing out this link:



While this is a model result focused on sea ice near Greenland, they run it over the whole Arctic Ocean. While all models are wrong, good models are informative. So comparing this with other results may be interesting, especially near Greenland.


NSIDC wrote:Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 7. This is the lowest maximum in the 38-year satellite record.
NSIDC wrote:It was a very warm autumn and winter. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) over the five months spanning October 2016 through February 2017 were more than 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over the entire Arctic Ocean, and greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over large parts of the northern Chukchi and Barents Seas. These overall warm conditions were punctuated by a series of extreme heat waves over the Arctic Ocean.

Data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 satellite indicate that this winter’s ice cover is slightly thinner compared to the past four years. An ice-ocean model at the University of Washington that incorporates observed weather conditions suggests the volume of ice in the Arctic is unusually low for this time of year.


Record low area and extent, and thinner. Summer might be a little interesting in the Arctic.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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NeilBlanchard
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:44 am

Arctic ice area is at a record low:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Image

Antarctic ice area is at a record low:

Image

Another site showing graphs of daily data changes is here:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

kidjan
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:45 pm

I can't believe people are still debating this.

I play cards with a climate scientist; he recently co-authored an editorial in the local paper: http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/5066614-1 ... ge-is-real - scientific consensus at this time among climate scientists is yes, it's real, and yes, it's anthropogenic.

Regarding sea ice extent, I think the mistake being made is looking at a single year, seeing a "record", and thinking that's meaningful. The long-term trend is what's meaningful. Example: I could look at earlier this year and say we had record low sea ice--same general fallacy. Here's a post from NASA that clarifies the long-term trends: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2569/sea- ... oth-poles/

The overall trend, globally, from 1980 to now is roughly a loss of ~1.5M square kilometers of sea ice extent, with most of it being lost in the Arctic, and a small/negligible increase in the Antarctic.

bongo2
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Re: Is the science settled over global warming? If so when?

Sun Mar 26, 2017 3:48 pm

Didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if someone else already answered the "when" question. It was 1988:

http://bfy.tw/AroL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... to_present
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