Western USA drought worst in modern era

[DaveinOlyWA]

A bit of rain yesterday, last night and this morning will not likely be enough to be of much help. the West side of the Cascades generally gets double the volume of the East side and we did not get much. Hoping the Northern end of the front was much wetter than what passed thru Oly

[WetEV]

Will the smoke particles provide more condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, leading to a wetter winter?

I doubt it. I believe you need BOTH higher humidity AND condensation nuclei to get more rain and/or snow. If the air is very dry, then there will not be more rain.

I doubt it for a different reason. Smoke particles have a limited lifetime in the atmosphere. By winter, the fires should be out, and the atmosphere should mostly be clear of smoke particles.

[NeilBlanchard]

The wildfire soot is darkening the snow and ice, lowering its albedo; causing it to melt faster.

[RegGuheert]

Will the smoke particles provide more condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, leading to a wetter winter?

I doubt it. I believe you need BOTH higher humidity AND condensation nuclei to get more rain and/or snow. If the air is very dry, then there will not be more rain.

I doubt it for a different reason. Smoke particles have a limited lifetime in the atmosphere. By winter, the fires should be out, and the atmosphere should mostly be clear of smoke particles.

I guess what I am saying is that without the jetstream moving back to where it used to be, there will not be a significant amount of rainfall in your part of the world.

[AndyH]

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/09/16/california-governor-warns-of-coming-climate-refugee-crisis/

California Governor Warns of Coming Climate Refugee Crisis

[edatoakrun]

Entering the fifth year, a mixed message in this Winter's latest drought forecast from NOAA.

Best summary and graphics, IMO, at the site below.

A strong El Niño is predicted to help ease drought conditions in some, but not all of California.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 15, by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a strong El Niño improving drought conditions across central and southern California by the end of January...

"For the Southwest, El Niño associated climate anomalies favor an enhancement of the early wet season," the CPC says. "Therefore, drought improvement is favored across central and southern California."

But the drought is forecast to persist or intensify across northern California, northern Nevada and all of Oregon and Washington...

Despite the outlook for improvement, the drought in California isn't going away. Halpert says "a wetter-than-average winter is unlikely to erase four years of drought."..

The next seasonal outlook will be issued November 19.

http://www.capradio.org/articles/2015/1 ... a-drought/

[palmermd]

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti ... o-10711388

Lots of dead trees. Sad to see.

[GRA]

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/A-hair-raising-flight-over-California-s-dying-9127084.php#photo-10711388

Lots of dead trees. Sad to see.

Driving back from Yosemite this past January, it was really shocking to see the massive amount of dead pines every direction I looked, as far as the eye could see. I'd estimate that there were at least 20% dead no matter which direction I was looking, and some stands appeared to be up to 80% dead.

Early last month, when I went up to my old Scout camp at 5,500 ft. on the Stanislaus river for a visit, I was amazed at the number of dead and down trees that turned what were formerly easy off-trail walks into slow obstacle courses. Beetle tracks were very noticeable where trunks were missing their bark. It will take at least a few decades for natural decay to open things up again, always assuming a fire doesn't clear things out, destroying what's left in the process. Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.

[WetEV]

Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.

The average is changing. What will the forests look like with the new average? And the average after that?

[GRA]

Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.

The average is changing. What will the forests look like with the new average? And the average after that?

A lot less tree cover in the lower montane forest belt, that's for sure, and probably we'll see the foothill woodlands/chaparral move well upwards as snowfall decreases.