Weatherman
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Sun Jul 19, 2015 6:00 pm

Weatherman wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Weatherman wrote:If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air. Mountain and desert areas of California will likely get more rainfall this summer than they would in a normal year. More rain and more cloud cover would mean less hot daytime highs, although nighttime lows would be warmer with the higher humidity.


It might be interesting to check your predictions at the end of summer... Want to provide a short list of locations to check?


Coastal areas? San Diego and Los Angeles

Mountains? Big Bear, Mammoth Lakes, South Lake Tahoe

If you want to pick a location out in the desert: Palmdale, Needles, Bishop


No further comment needed...

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... ne-dolores
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NeilBlanchard
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:54 am


DanCar
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:26 am

NeilBlanchard wrote:
Thanks, that was interesting! :)

WetEV
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:48 am

Weatherman wrote:If anything, warmer water temperatures would enhance the summer monsoon by providing higher humidity and more moisture to the air.


Weatherman wrote:No further comment needed...

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... ne-dolores


Monsoon NEQ hurricane.

But yes, warmer water enhances hurricanes as well, so I'll agree you were correct, but not for the reasoning given.
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:50 am

Anyone who lives in north California should know how potentially hazardous the current fire situation is.

The one part of the story that hasn't been emphasized enough, is that the large fires burning in Trinity and Lake counties have occurred with low winds conditions, not what would normally be considered fire weather.

The very low moisture levels of both forest and Chaparral due to the drought mean that the current fires are behaving in an unprecedented fashion, for fires not fed by high winds.

Which suggests some pretty unpleasant possibilities for what could happen if the late-season winds arrive, as expected.

Full audio interview at the link.

Cal Fire Chief’s Nightmare Scenario


It comes down to this: the next couple of months.

Lately Northern California has captured national headlines with fast-moving blazes such the Rocky and Jerusalem Fires in the coast ranges about 100 miles north of San Francisco.

Unlike many epic fires in the California record, which were largely driven by wind, in the fires burning north of the Bay Area, “There really is no signifcant wind,” says Cal Fire Director Ken Pimlott. “It’s all being driven by the condition of the vegetation.”

Which is to say, not merely dry, but four-year-drought dry. Pimlott says Cal Fire measures the potential burn intensity of vegetation throughout the state, and is currently seeing “record levels” of that metric, known as the Energy Release Component.

“It’s just creating explosive growth rates,” he says.

The Jerusalem Fire went from 100 to 5,000 acres almost overnight. But the worst may be yet to come.

As summer gives way to fall, the winds typically shift and dry winds from the east sweep across California, turning an already sizzling fire season into a potential blast furnace...

In this interview with KQED, Pimlott talks about fire behavior, busting budgets, boots on the ground, and his confidence in the state’s ability to confront an ever-expanding fire season.

We start with what crews on the fire lines are saying about these aggressive, fast-moving fires in the north state:

http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/08/11/ ... -scenario/

More links, Wildfire blog, incident map, Fed and State incident directories:

http://wildfiretoday.com/

http://www.geomac.gov/viewer/viewer.shtml

http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/unit/3/

http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_current
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GRA
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:12 pm

Fingers crossed for El Nino moisture to arrive early. I got an up close look (lived just outside the evacuation zone, and drove up into it that night) at the Oakland Hills fire storm in '91, and really don't want to see something similar in the Bay Area (or elsewhere ftm) come September or October. The mushroom cloud of smoke I saw as I drove north from the Watsonville Air Show that afternoon was pretty scary, as my girlfriend was at home.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:04 pm

http://wildfiretoday.com/2015/08/12/nat ... two-years/

National wildfire preparedness level raised to highest level in two years

Posted on August 12, 2015 by Bill Gabbert

The National Multi-Agency Coordinating Group (NMAC) at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise will increase the National Fire Preparedness Level (PL) to its highest point, PL-5, at 5:30 a.m. MDT on Thursday, August 13th. The PL ranges from one, indicating minimal activity, to five, which signals very high activity.

The raised preparedness level reflects a high degree of wildfire activity, a major commitment of fire resources, and the probability that severe conditions will continue for at least a few days.

“A significant amount of initial and extended attack and large fire activity has occurred over the past several days as a result of lightning storms that have intensified local and geographic response,” said Aitor Bidaburu, Chair of NMAC. “Given the continuing hot and dry weather and the increase in fire activity in the western U.S...

Wildfire activity has escalated in recent days after thunderstorms, many with little or no moisture, moved across parts of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana, sparking hundreds of new fires...

The last time that the National Preparedness Level was raised to 5 was on August 20, 2013. The National Preparedness Level remained at 5 for 7 days until it was dropped to 4 on August 26, 2013. This is the fifth time that PL-5 has been reached in the last ten years.

During PL-5, further assistance from the military, beyond what is already in use, and international resources may be considered and requested, but no decisions have been made concerning those steps.

The weather forecast for the next few months, according to a news release today from NICC, predicts that most of the West will have above normal temperatures, below normal precipitation, and continuing drought in many areas into the fall.
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drees
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Thu Aug 13, 2015 12:08 am

A big contributed to forest fires in the west right now is the huge number of dead pine trees thanks to a combination of drought, warm winters and bark beetles.

I was in the Yosemite foothills earlier this summer and the number of dead pines compared to last year is drastically obvious.
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DanCar
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:16 am

drees wrote:... the number of dead pines compared to last year is drastically obvious
Someone grab a pic next time.

NeilBlanchard
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Re: Western USA drought worst in modern era

Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:29 am


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