LeftieBiker
Posts: 6300
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:19 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
Nubo wrote:It's 12:01.
Really?

In reality, you cannot name a single global, climate-related effect which is moving in a negative direction.

No one is interested in listening to this Chicken Little nonsense any longer.


No one in your circles, perhaps. I suggest you clap your hands over your ears, close your eyes, and...SING!
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:33 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
Nubo wrote:It's 12:01.
Really?

In reality, you cannot name a single global, climate-related effect which is moving in a negative direction.

No one is interested in listening to this Chicken Little nonsense any longer.


No one in your circles, perhaps. I suggest you clap your hands over your ears, close your eyes, and...SING!
Nope. When I hear the claims, I look at the measured data. And I have posted it for all here to see for many years. See immediately above how I provided detailed data above how India and China are massively polluting our world and the Paris agreement was just a crooked means for US to fund that nonsense. As everyone can clearly see, you are not describing me. Your ad hominem attack is just that: a logical fallacy with no merit in this discussion.

Fortunately, virtually every single one of the scare stories which has been bandied about has proven OPPOSITE of what the actual measurements show. It's amazing what people will believe. If you believe otherwise, you will need more than fallacies to support your assertions.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 1703
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:22 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Fortunately, virtually every single one of the scare stories which has been bandied about has proven OPPOSITE of what the actual measurements show. It's amazing what people will believe. If you believe otherwise, you will need more than fallacies to support your assertions.


Amusing.

The ocean is rising.

Ice doesn't care. Gets above 0C, it melts.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:46 pm

WetEV wrote:The ocean is rising.
Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years. Before that, the sea level rose at a MUCH higher rate. And sea level is NOT rising at nearly half of the tidal gauges around the world. At many of them, it is dropping. Is there something about the ocean rising slowly that alarms you?
WetEV wrote:Ice doesn't care. Gets above 0C, it melts.
So what? You make this nonsense statement repeatedly. But there is nothing scary about that.

BTW, WetEV, just like California, you just experienced the wettest winter ever out there. Nothing like the "permanent drought" which had just been declared months before by, guess who?: The New York Times.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
Posts: 6829
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:57 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:On a more positive note, via the NYT:
There is NOTHING positive about the world's two largest populations and polluters rapidly increasing their pollution. By quoting fake news and praising China and India's practices, you are showing your extreme hypocrisy.

Reg. please, stop hyperventilating.

RegGuheert wrote:Let's look at the actual facts:

- India's "pledge" to the Paris Agreement was to triple their emissions by 2030 and get paid $166B EACH YEAR by foolish nations to do that.
- India's goal is to double emissions by 2020:
India Times wrote:The country is the world's third-largest coal producer and the third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter. It depends on coal for about three-fifths of its energy needs and aims to double its output to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2020.
- Promising to reduce "emissions intensity" is simply a con. It is nothing like *actually* reducing emissions.

I quite agree that promising to reduce emissions is nothing like actually reducing them. That's one reason I find it hard to get too excited about the Paris agreement, or our pulling out of it. AFAIC, voluntary agreements aren't worth the paper they're written on. What would matter would be mandatory agreements with an enforcement mechanism and the willingness to use it, and Paris lacks all of that. We've already seen just how many countries failed to meet their goals under Kyoto, most embarrassingly including the host, Japan: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2012/nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions

No, the main value of Paris, IMO, was that for the first time we were able to get China and India to agree to set any goals for themselves, and to slow the growth of fossil-fueled plants. Both countries are running as fast as they can just trying to stay in place, as electricity demand has risen rapidly (slowing in China though).


Your info re China is out of date:
In August 2013 the State Council said that China should reduce its carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels, and would aim to boost renewable energy to 15% of its total primary energy consumption by 2020. In 2012 China was the world’s largest source of carbon emissions – 2626 MtC (9.64 Gt CO2), and its increment that year comprised about 70% of world total increase. In March 2014 the Premier said that the government was declaring “war on pollution” and would accelerate closing coal-fired power stations.In November 2014 the Premier announced that China intended about 20% of its primary energy consumption to be from non-fossil fuels by 2030, at which time it intended its peak of CO2 emissions to occur. This 20% target is part of the 13th Five-Year Plan and was reiterated by the president at the Paris climate change conference in December 2015, along with reducing CO2 emissions by 60 to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. . . .

In the 13th Five-Year Plan for power production announced by the NEA in November 2016, by 2020 coal capacity will be limited to 1100 GWe by cancelling and postponing about 150 GWe of projects. Gas in 2020 is projected at 110 GWe, hydro 340 GWe, wind 210 GWe, and solar 110 GWe of which distributed PV is to be 60 GWe. Nuclear 58 GWe was reiterated for 2020. Non-fossil 770 GWe will then produce 15% of electricity.


Which was followed by:
The report said the amount of new capacity starting construction was down 62% in 2016 on the year before, and work was frozen at more than a hundred sites in China and India. In January, China’s energy regulator halted work on a further 100 new coal-fired projects, suggesting the trend was not going away.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... hina-india


RegGuheert wrote:- India and China together hold OVER 60% of the world's coal reserves. Paying for them to build coal-fired plants would ensure that coal gets burned quickly.

Again, your info re India is out of date:
Just a few years ago, the world watched nervously as India went on a building spree of coal-fired power plants, more than doubling its capacity and claiming that more were needed. Coal output, officials said, would almost triple, to 1.5 billion tons, by 2020.

India’s plans were cited by American critics of the Paris climate accord as proof of the futility of advanced nations trying to limit their carbon output. But now, even as President Trump pulls the United States out of the pact, India has undergone an astonishing turnaround, driven in great part by a steep fall in the cost of solar power.

Experts now say that India not only has no need of any new coal-fired plants for at least a decade, given that existing plants are running below 60 percent of capacity, but that after that it could rely on renewable sources for all its additional power needs.*

Rather than building coal-fired plants, it is now canceling many in the early planning stages. And last month, the government lowered its annual production target for coal to 600 million tons from 660 million.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/worl ... imate.html

* Highly questionable absent cheap storage. See below re Chinese curtailment of PV/Wind.

Now, would I prefer that China and India give up coal-fired plants entirely? Sure. Is that realistic? Not now, barring a complete shift to nukes (which they're also building in large numbers) for baseload. At least the coal plants they are building, especially in the case of China, are much more efficient and less polluting than the ones they are replacing, as both countries' politicians are increasingly being driven by public pressure over air pollution:
China is well advanced in developing and deploying supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal plants, as well as moving quickly to design and deploy technologies for integrated (coal) gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants. Nevertheless it consumed about 4.3 billion tonnes of coal in 2013, more than half the world total, and coal peaked at more than 70% of China’s primary energy then, dropping to 64% in 2015 as fossil fuel generation declined. By 2020 it is expected to use some 3.5 billion tonnes of coal annually, and for coal to comprise only 55% of primary energy consumption. However, after authority for approving new coal-fired plants was given to provincial governments late in 2014, in 2015 state-owned companies received preliminary or full approval to build 165 GWe of new coal-fired capacity, some of which would be offset by retirement of older plants. But total coal consumption dropped by 3.7% in that year, and in October 2016 coal-fired plants had an average load factor of only 46%. In March 2016, the NEA ordered 13 provinces to suspend approvals of new projects until 2017, and another 15 to delay construction of new projects that had already been approved. Taken together, this required about 110 GWe of suspensions.

Wind and solar generating capacity has been expanding rapidly, much of it with private investment encouraged by government policies, such as CNY 0.54 per kWh feed-in tariff (FIT). In 2016, 17.3 GWe of new wind capacity and 34.8 GWe of solar PV was installed, but the capacity factors decreased. There is a high level of curtailment on wind generation, because of inadequate grid connections. In 2016 some 50 TWh of potential wind output – about 20% on average and up to 50% in some provinces – was curtailed, according to the National Energy Administration, and several provinces* have been ordered to stop approving wind projects until they improve transmission infrastructure. In 2016 the curtailment was mainly in Gansu (43% of production), Xinjiang (38%), Jilin (30%), Inner Mongolia (21%), and Heilongjiang (19%).

There is a similar situation for grid-connected solar, with 7 TWh being curtailed – about 20% in the main five provinces, and the capacity factor is about 17%. In 2016 NDRC reduced wind FITs by 5% to 13% and solar utility FITs by 24% to 31%. The 13th Five-Year Plan has about 16 GWe/yr of wind addition, and aims to reduce grid curtailment from wind to 5%. However, having made huge investments, many wind and solar power producers have been affected by grid curtailment rates in the 30% range for the past few years.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/informatio ... power.aspx


RegGuheert wrote:- Last winter, some cities in Europe reached pllution levels equivalent to seven cigarettes per day while some cities in China and India reached the equivalent of a pack a day.
- The US is building ZERO coal-fired power plants and currently has no plans to build any. The air quality in the U.S. is not nearly as bad as that in some cities in Europe and China.

I'm sorry, GRA, but it is extremely unwise for the U.S. to tax our citizens to PAY India and China to build coal-fired power plants as quickly as they can. If you think that is a good idea, then shame on you. That's the asinine agreement for which Obama signed up and from which President Trump just extricated us.

Which assumes that such money transfers would ever have taken place, and that's as likely as NATO countries meeting their agreed financial commitments, or charity donor countries meeting theirs. Again, it's all voluntary, and not worth the paper it's written on. What does matter is that politicians have to think about it, and then convince their own public why it's not a good idea to take steps that reduce air pollution, regardless of whether or not they believe in AGCC.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 6829
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:05 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:The ocean is rising.
Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years. Before that, the sea level rose at a MUCH higher rate. And sea level is NOT rising at nearly half of the tidal gauges around the world. At many of them, it is dropping. Is there something about the ocean rising slowly that alarms you?
WetEV wrote:Ice doesn't care. Gets above 0C, it melts.
So what? You make this nonsense statement repeatedly. But there is nothing scary about that.

BTW, WetEV, just like California, you just experienced the wettest winter ever out there. Nothing like the "permanent drought" which had just been declared months before by, guess who?: The New York Times.

Actually, the article said unending drought (to that point), not that it was permanent. California has always had cycles of drought; the concern is that they're getting longer, and that more of the precip in wet years is likely to fall as rain instead of snow (which thankfully didn't happen too much this year, or we might have seen the Oroville dam collapse, instead of just the spillway fail). The state depends on snowpack for about 30% of its annual water supply, and lacks storage if more falls as rain (or warm rain causes rapid melting, as happened a couple of times this past season, leading to major flooding). I know that you don't believe in AGCC, but for those of us who are worried about it it's a major concern. Besides the steps that need to be taken to reduce air pollution are much the same as those for reducing GHGs, so why take the chance of guessing wrong about AGCC if we want to do those things anyway?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
Nubo
Posts: 4249
Joined: Fri May 28, 2010 11:01 am
Delivery Date: 31 Oct 2014
Location: Vallejo, CA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:38 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
Nubo wrote:It's 12:01.
Really?

In reality, you cannot name a single global, climate-related effect which is moving in a negative direction.

No one is interested in listening to this Chicken Little nonsense any longer.


Yeah, well it was a joke. The "minutes to midnight" trope is doomed to fizzle. I mean you can only get so close. Zeno's paradox doesn't play well with the visceral impact. "It's .0000000001 seconds to midnight"... it just doesn't play. So I went to 12:01 to get it over with. The anticipation was killing me.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:26 am

GRA wrote:

I quite agree that promising to reduce emissions is nothing like actually reducing them.
You need to reread what I wrote along with the link. India NEVER agreed to reduce their emissions in the short term. What they agreed to reduce was "emissions intensity". Again, they have pledged to INCREASE emissions by a factor of three by 2030. Sorry, but your belief that they agreed to reduce them is incorrect.
GRA wrote:No, the main value of Paris, IMO, was that for the first time we were able to get China and India to agree to set any goals for themselves, and to slow the growth of fossil-fueled plants. Both countries are running as fast as they can just trying to stay in place, as electricity demand has risen rapidly (slowing in China though).
You'll have to provide some evidence that the proposals from China and India were actually to slow emissions growth in the short term. In the case of India, they were demanding funds so that they could HASTEN their growth.
GRA wrote:

Your info re China is out of date:
In August 2013 the State Council said that China should reduce its carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels, and would aim to boost renewable energy to 15% of its total primary energy consumption by 2020. In 2012 China was the world’s largest source of carbon emissions – 2626 MtC (9.64 Gt CO2), and its increment that year comprised about 70% of world total increase. In March 2014 the Premier said that the government was declaring “war on pollution” and would accelerate closing coal-fired power stations.In November 2014 the Premier announced that China intended about 20% of its primary energy consumption to be from non-fossil fuels by 2030, at which time it intended its peak of CO2 emissions to occur. This 20% target is part of the 13th Five-Year Plan and was reiterated by the president at the Paris climate change conference in December 2015, along with reducing CO2 emissions by 60 to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. . . .
My information is newer than everything in the above paragraph. I quoted ACTUAL coal power plant construction data from a report dated October 2016. Do you have something that says that China is NOT constructing 205 new coal-fired electricity plants or that India is not building 65? No, you don't. So, tell me, how many coal-fired plants are they currently building?
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:- India and China together hold OVER 60% of the world's coal reserves. Paying for them to build coal-fired plants would ensure that coal gets burned quickly.
Again, your info re India is out of date:
No, it's not. Check it again: The article is dated May 15, 2017. India may be telling others one thing, but it is clear that they CURRENTLY plan to massively grow coal generation.
India Times wrote:The country is the world's third-largest coal producer and the third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter. It depends on coal for about three-fifths of its energy needs and aims to double its output to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2020.
India Times wrote:NITI Aayog estimates renewables will account for 10-17 percent of India's energy demand in 2047, up from about 4 percent now, while the share of natural gas could be limited to 8-10 percent.
GRA wrote:What does matter is that politicians have to think about it, and then convince their own public why it's not a good idea to take steps that reduce air pollution, regardless of whether or not they believe in AGCC.
Do you know of ANY politician who is trying to convince the public that it is not a good idea to take steps that reduce air pollution?

Here is what President Trump promised in his speech last Wednesday:
President Donald J. Trump wrote:The United States, under the Trump administration, will continue to be the cleanest and most environmentally friendly country on Earth. We'll be the cleanest. We're going to have the cleanest air. We're going to have the cleanest water.
Most coal-fired plants in the U.S. are rather clean in terms of emissions. My gripe with the use of coal and other fossil fuels in our country has always been the environmental damage done to access those resources. In China and India, OTOH, it is clear that air pollution is also a massive problem.

Frankly, it is ridiculous for people like Angela Merkel to criticize the US for our policies when she has spent massive amounts of money and done massive environmental damage over the past 10 years without succeeding in reducing emissions in her own country. But when China criticizes us in this area, it is complete and utter nonsense.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:43 am

Nubo wrote:Yeah, well it was a joke. The "minutes to midnight" trope is doomed to fizzle. I mean you can only get so close. Zeno's paradox doesn't play well with the visceral impact. "It's .0000000001 seconds to midnight"... it just doesn't play. So I went to 12:01 to get it over with. The anticipation was killing me.
Ha! Got it! Thanks for explaining it to me in small words!
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 1703
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:44 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:The ocean is rising.
Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.


Image

Looks to me rather like the rate is increasing.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn ... vel-fears/

Oh, and not for thousands of years.


RegGuheert wrote:Before that, the sea level rose at a MUCH higher rate.


Yes, While the climate was warming about 4C over roughly 10,000 years, the sea level rose. At the peak, as much as two feet per decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meltwater_pulse_1A

Image

4C... before 2100?

Ice doesn't care. Gets above 0C, it melts.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

Return to “Environmental Issues”