WetEV
Posts: 1682
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:05 am

AndyH wrote: crisis or not?


Understand, Andy, I'm not saying it is a problem. I'm not saying it isn't serious.

A crisis is an infection. Ebola. Flu. You get sick fast, you either get over it and get well, and you go back normal. Or die.

A long term problem is Diabetes. At first, you don't notice anything, only a careful measurement of blood sugar shows that there is a problem. Eventually after years to decades, it can kill you, if you don't take measures to lower blood sugar. Even if you do, you need to maintain and perhaps increase those measures for the rest of your life. You never get back to "normal".

Climate change is a long term problem, not a crisis.

If you don't understand the difference, don't bother trying to make climate change into a crisis. It isn't one. I'm not saying it is a problem. I'm not saying it isn't serious.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

AndyH
Posts: 6325
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:33 pm

WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote: crisis or not?


Understand, Andy, I'm not saying it is a problem. I'm not saying it isn't serious.

A crisis is an infection. Ebola. Flu. You get sick fast, you either get over it and get well, and you go back normal. Or die.

A long term problem is Diabetes. At first, you don't notice anything, only a careful measurement of blood sugar shows that there is a problem. Eventually after years to decades, it can kill you, if you don't take measures to lower blood sugar. Even if you do, you need to maintain and perhaps increase those measures for the rest of your life. You never get back to "normal".

Climate change is a long term problem, not a crisis.

If you don't understand the difference, don't bother trying to make climate change into a crisis. It isn't one. I'm not saying it is a problem. I'm not saying it isn't serious.

Yes, Wet, thank you for your repeated attempts to educate us all on the definition of 'crisis' from your point of view. I get it. I suspect that most of the rest of the group understands as well.

Here's your problem - and the only part of your point of view that from my experience is very wrong: "Climate change is a long term problem, not a crisis."

Climate change IS absolutely a 'long term problem' - agreed.
Climate change is ALSO a crisis because it IS affecting people all over this planet in immediate and existential ways.

Look at the picture of the houses from Alaska again. Put yourself inside one - where you're looking out the window while waiting for the morning coffee to brew. For months or years the ground under your house has been softening and the building's shifts have been tiny. "long term" Then one afternoon, while you walk to the kitchen from your office to start a new pot of coffee, the house tips on its side. At that point it's gets really, really "crisis-ey" really quickly.

One can suggest that the road to insolvency is a "long term problem" right up until the day they can no longer pay their mortgage - then things get exciting fast. For more and more people on this planet, things have been getting much more exciting than they'd prefer...

Climate change is both - and until we understand exactly where all the possible tipping points are hiding, I think it's in our best interest to stick closer to 'crisis' than 'ho-hum'.
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison

2015 smart Electric Drive "The Bumblebee"
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

WetEV
Posts: 1682
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:25 pm

AndyH wrote:I get it.


Well, ok. But the rest of your post shows you don't. Let us agree to disagree.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

AndyH
Posts: 6325
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:04 pm

WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:I get it.


Well, ok. But the rest of your post shows you don't. Let us agree to disagree.

Can you see yourself in the house in Alaska, Wet? Do you understand not only the definition but also the effect of a tipping point? Do you know where all the tipping points are in the climate system?

Do you somehow think that climate change is not a current crisis for American citizens today? If not, why not?
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison

2015 smart Electric Drive "The Bumblebee"
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

WetEV
Posts: 1682
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:45 pm

AndyH wrote:
WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:I get it.


Well, ok. But the rest of your post shows you don't. Let us agree to disagree.

Do you know where all the tipping points are in the climate system?


Of course not. I do know that the climate system is slow. It takes decades to centuries for most things to happen. Why? We have probably hit some of the tipping points I do know a bit about

Greenland, for example, is unstable. If there was no ice sheet, the surface of Greenland would much lower altitude, which would make the surface too warm to regrow an ice sheet. Because the ice sheet raises the altitude, the surface is colder, and the ice sheet remains. Warm the climate enough, and we are probably close to that, and the Greenland ice sheet starts to collapse. Slowly the surface of the ice declines, first at cm per century, later at cm decade, finally at a few cm per year. Fast, on a geologic scale of time, mostly melted in something like 3000 to 10,000 years.

AndyH wrote:Do you somehow think that climate change is not a current crisis for American citizens today? If not, why not?


Crisis or problem? To use the analogy I gave before, Diabetes (untreated) is more lethal than Ebola... But Diabetes will take years, not days or hours, before your symptoms get severe. Diabetes isn't a crisis, at least until you are almost dead, after you are already blind, your feet have long been amputated due to loss of circulation and infection, etc.

Saying climate change isn't a crisis does not mean it isn't a serous problem.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

smkettner
Posts: 6977
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:54 pm

Global warming has been a crisis since the last ice age.... or has it?
How do we determine the optimal place to stop the warming?
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

AndyH
Posts: 6325
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:06 pm

WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:Do you somehow think that climate change is not a current crisis for American citizens today? If not, why not?


Crisis or problem? To use the analogy I gave before, Diabetes (untreated) is more lethal than Ebola... But Diabetes will take years, not days or hours, before your symptoms get severe. Diabetes isn't a crisis, at least until you are almost dead, after you are already blind, your feet have long been amputated due to loss of circulation and infection, etc.

Saying climate change isn't a crisis does not mean it isn't a serous problem.

I gave you a distinct and real-world example - why do you ignore it and roll-back to diabetes? Did I fail to communicate or are you dodging and weaving?
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison

2015 smart Electric Drive "The Bumblebee"
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

WetEV
Posts: 1682
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:04 am

AndyH wrote:
WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:Do you somehow think that climate change is not a current crisis for American citizens today? If not, why not?


Crisis or problem? To use the analogy I gave before, Diabetes (untreated) is more lethal than Ebola... But Diabetes will take years, not days or hours, before your symptoms get severe. Diabetes isn't a crisis, at least until you are almost dead, after you are already blind, your feet have long been amputated due to loss of circulation and infection, etc.

Saying climate change isn't a crisis does not mean it isn't a serous problem.

I gave you a distinct and real-world example - why do you ignore it and roll-back to diabetes? Did I fail to communicate or are you dodging and weaving?


If the USA was living on permafrost near a usually frozen ocean, climate change might well be a crisis. However, that is not the case. So why discuss that example?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

edatoakrun
Posts: 4232
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:02 pm

WetEV wrote:...If the USA was living on permafrost near a usually frozen ocean, climate change might well be a crisis...

Or, to use another example, if the USA had major cities with tens of millions of residents at risk of rising sea levels?

A few years back, scientists figured Antarctica as a whole was in balance, neither gaining nor losing ice. Experts worried more about Greenland; it was easier to get to and more noticeable, but once they got a better look at the bottom of the world, the focus of their fears shifted. Now scientists in two different studies use the words "irreversible" and "unstoppable" to talk about the melting in West Antarctica. Ice is gaining in East Antarctica, where the air and water are cooler, but not nearly as much as it is melting to the west.

"Before Antarctica was much of a wild card," said University of Washington ice scientist Ian Joughin. "Now I would say it's less of a wild card and more scary than we thought before."

Over at NASA, ice scientist Eric Rignot said the melting "is going way faster than anyone had thought. It's kind of a red flag."...

The world's fate hangs on the question of how fast the ice melts.

At its current rate, the rise of the world's oceans from Antarctica's ice melt would be barely noticeable, about one-third of a millimeter a year. The oceans are that vast.

But if all the West Antarctic ice sheet that's connected to water melts unstoppably, as several experts predict, there will not be time to prepare. Scientists estimate it will take anywhere from 200 to 1,000 years to melt enough ice to raise seas by 10 feet, maybe only 100 years in a worst case scenario. If that plays out, developed coastal cities such as New York and Guangzhou could face up to $1 trillion a year in flood damage within a few decades and countless other population centers will be vulnerable.

"Changing the climate of the Earth or thinning glaciers is fine as long as you don't do it too fast. And right now we are doing it as fast as we can. It's not good," said Rignot, of NASA...


http://www.redding.com/news/wire-news/t ... hape-earth

Back to the OP, I really don't care if you want to call it a "crises", or use the even more alarming terms the BOAS did:

edatoakrun wrote:The Doomsday clock has been moved forward to its most advanced level in ~three decades, and climate change is now plsced first among the risks.


IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

2015: Unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.” Despite some modestly positive developments in the climate change arena, current efforts are entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have embarked on massive programs to modernize their nuclear triads—thereby undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties. "The clock ticks now at just three minutes to midnight because international leaders are failing to perform their most important duty—ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization.

http://thebulletin.org/timeline
no condition is permanent

mbender
Posts: 824
Joined: Sun Apr 21, 2013 8:11 am
Delivery Date: 31 Aug 2014
Leaf Number: 309606
Location: The Great California Delta, and environs

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:00 am

WetEV wrote:If the USA was living on permafrost near a usually frozen ocean, climate change might well be a crisis. However, that is not the case. So why discuss that example?

So if I read this properly, what you're saying Wet is that a global phenomenon that is a crisis for someone else, another "tribe" say, is not a crisis for you or "your tribe"? If you take this argument ad absurdum -- i.e., why stop there, at the national level? -- if you, individually, are living well inland, 100 feet above sea level and are more or less self sufficient, does it ever amount to a crisis? If half of Florida begins to submerge, it's not a crisis for you because you live a continent away?

I'm not criticizing you or this interpretation of crisis, but just trying to clarify your argument. I understand your analogy, but if diabetes is "merely" beginning to affect the circulation in someone's right foot, is it a crisis to that person or not? They're years from dying, after all, and it's in a 'distant' part of the body (compared to where a lot of "more important" action takes place).

My vote would be to do something about it ASAP, even if I were just that person's left ear. i.e., if my physician told me not to worry because it is a problem but not a crisis, it just wouldn't sound right.
I think I just felt my paradigm shift.

2012 SL (One of the colors): 2-year lease, 2012+,
2015 S w/QC (A different color): 3-year lease, 2014+,
2017 SV (Same color as 2015 S): 3-year lease, 2017+, lower monthly than either above(!)

Return to “Environmental Issues”