edatoakrun
Posts: 4745
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:59 pm

In case you missed them some recent articles on-topic.

The story below has been widely attacked as being alarmist.

The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.


...It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough.

Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... umans.html

The relatively easy measures required to prevent disaster, had we acted ~30 years ago, now require much more immediate and drastic action:

These experts say we have three years to get climate change under control. And they’re the optimists.

A group of prominent scientists, policymakers, and corporate leaders released a statement Wednesday warning that if the world doesn’t set greenhouse gas emissions on a downward path by 2020, it could become impossible to contain climate change within safe limits.

The group, led by Christiana Figueres, who oversaw the United Nations negotiations that produced the Paris climate agreement, base their case on simple math. The world, they calculate, probably has a maximum of 600 billion remaining tons of carbon dioxide that can be emitted if we want a good chance of holding the rise in planetary temperatures within the Paris limit of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

With 41 billion tons emitted every year from energy consumption and other sources, such as deforestation, there are only about 15 years before that budget is exhausted.

Emissions can’t suddenly go to zero after 15 years — the world economy would grind to a halt if they did. Therefore, they must be put on a downward path almost immediately...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... r-1&wpmm=1

Some tools for planning your future as a North American Climate refugee:

As Climate Changes, Southern
States Will Suffer More Than Others


As the United States confronts global warming in the decades ahead, not all states will suffer equally. Maine may benefit from milder winters. Florida, by contrast, could face major losses, as deadly heat waves flare up in the summer and rising sea levels eat away at valuable coastal properties.

In a new study in the journal Science, researchers analyzed the economic harm that climate change could inflict on the United States in the coming century. They found that the impacts could prove highly unequal: states in the Northeast and West would fare relatively well, while parts of the Midwest and Southeast would be especially hard hit.

In all, the researchers estimate that the nation could face damages worth 0.7 percent of gross domestic product per year by the 2080s for every 1 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature. But that overall number obscures wide variations: The worst-hit counties — mainly in states that already have warm climates, like Arizona or Texas — could see losses worth 10 to 20 percent of G.D.P. or more if emissions continue to rise unchecked...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... =RecEngine


SIX WAYS TO SEE YOUR CLIMATE FUTURE USING NOAA’S CLIMATE EXPLORER

From the mean daily temperature to the number of days with precipitation over 1”, the NOAA Climate Explorer has a scientific way to see how climate change will affect where you live.
What is the Climate Explorer? In short, it’s a crystal ball created by our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to show what the future may be like for the United States, depending on whether we act on climate or continue emitting greenhouse gases.
The Climate Explorer accomplishes this by instantly displaying interactive maps and graphs that visualize recorded and projected climate change impacts across the United States.
Climate Explorer’s graphs and maps show projected conditions for two possible futures: one in which humans make a moderate attempt to reduce global emissions of heat-trapping gases, and one in which we go on conducting business as usual. NOAA makes these predictions based on global climate models developed for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...

https://www.climaterealityproject.org/b ... e-explorer
no condition is permanent

eatsleafsandshoots
Posts: 71
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:23 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Oct 2013
Location: Denver, CO

Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:54 am

edatoakrun wrote:In case you missed them some recent articles on-topic.

The story below has been widely attacked as being alarmist.

The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.


...It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough.

Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... umans.html


Everybody needs to read that article and understand that the criticisms of it are 99% due to tone, not content or inaccurate representation of scientific data - including Manning's criticism. We can't for sure, but there's a good chance we might actually be totally fucked right now regardless of what we do. We even stand to see serious climate impacts in our lifetimes, at this point - not cities permanently under water, but people whose homes flood during every thunderstorm moving away from the coasts jobless, homeless, and desperate.

I may be a leftie, but I think it's a universal sentiment among thinking people that society has a very thin veneer, one that can be pierced surprisingly easily by hard times.

Return to “Environmental Issues”