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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:54 am

edatoakrun wrote:Or, to use another example, if the USA had major cities with tens of millions of residents at risk of rising sea levels?


The climate change that doomed West Antarctica's ice was caused CO2 released decades ago. It's melting, Jim.

edatoakrun wrote:Back to the OP, I really don't care if you want to call it a "crises", or use the even more alarming terms the BOAS did:

edatoakrun wrote:climate change ... pose(s) extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity


I agree with the BOAS.

Notice by reading carefully that I'm mostly talking about proper use of the English language: a fire in your house is a crisis, dry rot or termites are not. All of these can leave your house as a pile of rubble. Proper and careful use of language matters when talking to "skeptics".
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:53 am

mbender wrote:So if I read this properly,


No, I don't think you are getting my intent. More details. Diabetes is currently defined as "fasting blood sugar" over 125 mg/dl, and there are no other symptoms if you are just barely diabetic, serious symptoms start at much higher blood sugar levels. Only if you ignore diabetes can the blood sugar rise to levels where other symptoms happen, and you can get to a crisis, and then the diabetes itself isn't the crisis, the symptoms such as loss of circulation are.

I think diabetes is a useful analogy to climate change, as there are few serious symptoms to the level of climate change we see today. The analogy isn't exact, of course.

A personal note.

My grandmother was just "pre-diabetic" (fasting blood sugar over 100 mg/dl) or just barely diabetic for over 30 years. Diabetes can be managed, but you don't need to start ASAP, it is not a crisis. You must, however, manage it, and maintain the management. If you don't... very bad things will happen.

I'm also "pre-diabetic", with a fasting blood sugar of ~103 mg/dl, and at the rate my blood sugar is rising, about 1mg/dl per year, I'll be to just barely diabetic in few decades. Give or take a bit. And if I can keep the same rate of rise, serious symptoms are well after my life expectancy. I'm hoping to just manage the disease, and never reach a crisis.

Notice that this is a different class of problem than a crisis.

Climate change is more similar to Diabetes than it is to Plague. Plague is a crisis, it can be cured with an antibiotic if done ASAP, and then it is over. Climate change isn't a crisis. We can wait, but we need to manage it to prevent very bad things from happening in the future. The analogy isn't exact, in that some bad things are happening to a few people in the most exposed locations, such as the village in Alaska, and we have already triggered the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, so over a hundred years or more the sea level is going up an extra 3 meters. But perhaps it is a useful analogy...
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mbender
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:59 pm

I do know what you are saying, and while part of me knows I'm nitpicking and/or getting too far into semantics, part of me is not.

Second, while I appreciate the personal note, I know a bit about diabetes, too. And although you bring it up as an "body:planet" analogy, I actually think that, epidemiologically, it can be compared more directly with climate change. That is, I think it has the potential to, and most likely will, kill as many or more people than any disruption(s) caused by "climate chaos"; that, on a global scale, it (and its associated metabolic syndrome) is a much bigger problem and will likely become a crisis if it is not dealt with.

I'm also pretty convinced that not only can it (type 2) be managed, but that it can be effectively reversed if caught soon enough. See any or many of Dr. Robert Lustig's talks (possibly starting with the 2010 classic that started his outspokenness, Sugar: The Bitter Truth) for the full reasoning and argument behind this conviction. He -- and he has impeccable credentials -- believes that excessive and ubiquitous added sugar (combined with fiber removal) is essentially "the new tobacco", and is planning to hold 'Big Food' accountable in the same way that 'Big Tobacco' was with cigarettes*. You will hear more of him, I guarantee it.

So while early diabetic indicators may pose a problem for the individual, the number of diabetic people (who fail to manage or reverse the disease, for whatever reason), en masse, is also a big problem for humanity as a whole, just as climate change is. And both will cause severe crises for many down the road if ignored.


I realize that I've gone a bit off-topic from an analogy, but I think it's somewhat relevant to the thread, regardless. And that's because if you look at diet-related chronic disease and deaths from them (and there are many), we might want to move the big hand one more minute closer to midnight. :-\


* of course, 'Big Food' is much bigger than 'Big Tobacco' was, so it will be a much 'Bigger Fight'...
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:25 am

mbender wrote: See any or many of Dr. Robert Lustig's talks (possibly starting with the 2010 classic that started his outspokenness, Sugar: The Bitter Truth) for the full reasoning and argument behind this conviction. He -- and he has impeccable credentials -- believes that excessive and ubiquitous added sugar (combined with fiber removal) is essentially "the new tobacco", and is planning to hold 'Big Food' accountable in the same way that 'Big Tobacco' was with cigarettes*. You will hear more of him, I guarantee it.


For anyone interested: along similar lines, Dr. Fuhrman has had great success in helping diabetics become non-diabetic in a matter of weeks without medication, even insulin-dependent Type2 diabetics.

http://www.drfuhrman.com/disease/Diabetes.aspx
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:10 pm



I think that reducing our carbon emissions is wishful thinking at this point.

So stopping emissions isn't even enough - we're going too fast?

We're going too fast right now. This part of Western Antarctica is going to fall apart no matter what.

How much sea level rise is contained in the ice?

So Pine Island, Thwaites, and its neighbors contain about one meter global sea level rise. If that whole sector goes down to sea, it will entrain the retreat of the rest of West Antarctica. We're talking about three to five meters of sea level rise...

That's a "holy shit" moment.

That's not "holy shit" it's worse than that... We're not ready for this.
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:54 am

"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison

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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:19 am

As the it's not happening argument has collapsed with observed results of global heating, the apologists for the fossil fuel pollution lobby are increasingly relying on the maybe it won't be too bad and it's too hard to fix arguments for continuing with business as usual.

Another one of those commie/greenie alarmists, the Milton Friedman professor of economics at the University of Chicago, lays out the scope of potential total global heating and the various choices we have to solve the problem.

If We Dig Out All Our Fossil Fuels, Here’s How Hot We Can Expect It to Get


World leaders are once again racing to avert disastrous levels of global warming through limits on greenhouse gas emissions. An agreement may be in reach, but because of the vast supplies of inexpensive fossil fuels, protecting the world from climate change requires the even more difficult task of disrupting today’s energy markets....

To understand the scope of this challenge, I’ve tallied the projected warming from fossil fuels extracted so far and the projected warming capacity of various fossil fuels that can be extracted with today’s technology. This accounting was done by taking the embedded carbon dioxide in each energy source and using a standard model for the relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and long-run temperature changes based on a 2009 Nature article. (More detail on the method is available here.)

For those who don’t like suspense, here’s the total: an astonishing 16.2 degrees...

There are essentially only three long-run solutions to the climate challenge...

If we use all of the fossil fuels in the ground, the planet will warm in a way that is difficult to imagine. Unless the economics of energy markets change, we are poised to use them.

Michael Greenstone, the Milton Friedman professor of economics at the University of Chicago...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/upsho ... 0002&abg=1
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:26 pm

WTF

Not sure I can hang on for 3 more minutes.
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:00 pm

See the video of the speech at the link.


In Alaska, Obama Paints Grim Picture of Climate Change


In an address to world leaders at the State Department-sponsored GLACIER conference in Anchorage, Alaska last night, President Barack Obama spoke in no uncertain terms about the need to put an end to the “urgent and growing threat of a changing climate.”

The President is in Alaska to talk about climate change this week, because, he says, the Arctic is “the leading indicator of what the climate faces.” He noted that over the last 60 years, Alaska has warmed about twice as fast as the rest of the U.S...

He reprimanded those who would criticize taking action on climate change for economic reasons. “The irony, of course, is few things will disrupt our lives as profoundly as climate change,” the President said. “Few things can have as negative an impact on our economy as climate change.”

This speech follows last month’s announcement of the President’s Clean Power Plan, an ambitious set of environmental regulations that aim to drastically reduce carbon emissions by 2030. It’s clear that in the last year of his presidency, Obama is working hard to make addressing climate change a crucial part of his legacy and to ensure the next President takes up the fight, as well.

Here’s POTUS’s speech in full:

http://www.wired.com/2015/09/obama-alas ... te-change/

IMO, A rational assessment of the large benefits and reasonable costs of talking action to avoid catastrophic climate change, caused by Anthropogenic global heating.

President Trump's future Build a Sea Wall Around the United States speech, not so much so...
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:12 pm

Obama Is The 44th President To Experience Alaskan Glacier Melting provides some data to go along with the rhetoric:

Image

Image

Clearly Barrow is warmer, but it appears that according to The Alaska Climate Research Center the average temperature change for Alaska for the 38-year period through the end of last year is -0.1F.
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