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RegGuheert
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IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAWN!

Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:53 am

WetEV wrote:Image

Looks to me rather like the rate is increasing.
Actually, that plot does not indicate that the slope is increasing. What it shows is that the slope changed in 1925. The slope was higher between 1925 and 1955, but sea level rise has been a bit slower since that time. Since 1925, global sea level has risen a total of about 200 mm, or about eight inches, according to your graph. In other words, the sea has risen at a slope of just over one inch per decade for the last nine decades. No one should be alarmed by such a slow rise in sea level.

And, BTW, all those alarming pictures of Manhattan underwater are just unscientific fakery. In fact, sea level at lower Manhattan has been steadily dropping at a rate of about 100 mm/decade for the past eight years:

Image

What most people don't know is that increasing sea level does NOT imply that coastal land is lost to the sea. In fact, the opposite is true. When the amount of coastal land gained and lost to the sea is measured over the entire planet, we find that the coastal land area is GROWING, not shrinking:
Donchyts et al. wrote:Earth’s surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas.
Simply put: Coastal land area is NOT dominated by sea level rise: "Coastal erosion and accretion, tectonic uplift and subsidence…are far more influential."
WetEV wrote:4C... before 2100?
Nonsense. Global temperatures have only risen about 0.5C in the last 40 years. Even if we extrapolated linear from today, we will only expect 1C rise in the next 80 years. But that is not how the climate works.

But that's not how climate works. Temperature trends are cyclical. We know that the global temperature closely follows the temperature of the oceans. Specifically, we see that global temperatures follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO):

Image

And since the global temperature closely follows the AMO, we should all expect that it will follow it back down for the next fifty or sixty years. Here is a historical plot of the AMO which should give you an idea where temperatures will be going in the near future:

Image

WetEV wrote:Ice doesn't care. Gets above 0C, it melts.
There's that say-nothing quote again. The simple fact is that the Arctic melt this year has been the slowest in 12 years due to the fact that the temperatures have been much lower than normal:

Image

Image

Image

Likewise, the Antarctic Peninsula is in a trend of rapidly cooling at a rate of 0.47C/decade since 1999.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Sea level fall from Roman times to pre-industrial.

Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:44 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:The ocean is rising.


Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.

WetEV wrote:Oh, and not for thousands of years.


I notice that you avoided the near net zero slope since Roman times. The ocean has not been rising slowly for thousands of years. The ocean level has stable for most of the past two thousand years. Do you agree, or do you have sources to dispute this?

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-repor ... _FINAL.pdf

13.2.1.4 The Late Holocene
Since the AR4, there has been significant progress in resolving the sea
level history of the last 7000 years. RSL records indicate that from ~7
to 3 ka, GMSL likely rose 2 to 3 m to near present-day levels (Chapter
5). Based on local sea level records spanning the last 2000 years, there
is medium confidence that fluctuations in GMSL during this interval
have not exceeded ~ ±0.25 m on time scales of a few hundred years
(Section 5.6.3, Figure 13.3a). The most robust signal captured in salt
marsh records from both Northern and Southern Hemispheres supports
the AR4 conclusion for a transition from relatively low rates of
change during the late Holocene (order tenths of mm yr–1) to modern
rates (order mm yr–1) (Section 5.6.3, Figure 13.3b). However, there
is variability in the magnitude and the timing (1840–1920) of this
increase in both paleo and instrumental (tide gauge) records (Section
3.7). By combining paleo sea level records with tide gauge records at
the same localities, Gehrels and Woodworth (2013) concluded that
sea level began to rise above the late Holocene background rate
between 1905 and 1945, consistent with the conclusions by Lambeck
et al. (2004).
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Sea level fall from Roman times to pre-industrial.

Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:14 pm

WetEV wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:The ocean is rising.
Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.
WetEV wrote:Oh, and not for thousands of years.
I notice that you avoided the near net zero slope since Roman times. The ocean has not been rising slowly for thousands of years.
I'm not sure what you are on about. Look again carefully at the graph you posted. Sea level has gone up NO MORE THAN ABOUT THREE METERS IN THE LAST SEVEN THOUSAND YEARS. That's about 4.3mm/decade. That matches what I said:
RegGuheert wrote:The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Sea level fall from Roman times to pre-industrial.

Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:37 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Yes. The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.
I notice that you avoided the near net zero slope since Roman times. The ocean has not been rising slowly for thousands of years.
I'm not sure what you are on about. Look again carefully at the graph you posted. Sea level has gone up NO MORE THAN ABOUT THREE METERS IN THE LAST SEVEN THOUSAND YEARS. That's about 4.3mm/decade. That matches what I said:
RegGuheert wrote:The ocean is rising very slowly, just like it has for thousands of years.


IPCC wrote:The most robust signal captured in salt marsh records from both Northern and Southern Hemispheres supports the AR4 conclusion for a transition from relatively low rates of change during the late Holocene (order tenths of mm yr–1) to modern rates (order mm yr–1) (Section 5.6.3, Figure 13.3b).


Sea level fall from Roman Times to pre-industrial, not from 7,000 years ago, or 20,000 years ago.

The last 2000 years up until sometime between 1905 and 1945, sea levels didn't change much.

A small point, but indicative.

A larger point would be your statement that the Arctic Ocean will never be mostly ice free in summer.


George Orwell wrote:(W)e are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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RegGuheert
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:54 am

WetEV wrote:A larger point would be your statement that the Arctic Ocean will never be mostly ice free in summer.
I never said that. Lying to try to paint others in a negative light shows the quality of your character.

I did say this:
RegGuheert wrote:There is no "death spiral". In fact, there is no "death" at all. And the idea that the ice will spiral to zero volume is just that: a failed belief.
That was in response to an exchange which looked like this:
WetEV wrote:I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
RegGuheert wrote:Why should I do that? Do you think the North Pole will be blue anytime soon? Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong. (Not that there would be ANYTHING bad about a blue North Pole.) You should look again at the GIF above. This time look carefully. Unlike in March 2016 and some earlier years, the North Pole is now completely socked in with multi-year ice for hundreds of miles in ALL directions. The prospects of blue water at the North Pole is getting more remote, NOT more likely.

Would you like to go on record and tell us when YOU think the North Pole will be blue?
As should be clear to all, YOU are the one who was trying to put words into my mouth by making a statement about an extremely unlikely event as if it was a foregone conclusion. All the rest was you trying to deflect and walk back from such a ridiculous statement.

So, put up or shut up: Can you name a single global, climate-related effect which is moving in a negative direction? Clearly you can't, or you would have already done it.
- The recent, gradual global sea level rise which we have experienced cannot be characterized as a negative since global coastal land area is INCREASING, not decreasing.
- The recent, gradual global increases in temperature cannot be characterized as negative since population, food production and green plant life are all steadily increasing and global hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods are all flat or trending down. Also, global temperatures are quite likely to continue to follow the AMO as they have in the past, which means they will be headed down in the very near future.
- Reduction in the area or volume of sea ice cannot be characterizes as negative. If anything, less sea ice is a positive since ice tends to hamper navigation on the seas. Polar bears populations are way up in the last decade or so. The historical record indicates the Arctic Sea Ice is roughly the same as it was back in the 20th century.

I've provided the scientific data to support all of these statements. I'll trot them out again for all to see if you really want me to.
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arnis
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:39 pm

And CO2 level in ppm is doing what?
We can actually measure what happens at 400, at 450, at 500, at 550, in a lab. No need to make predictions.

Let's assume nothing else beside CO2 level changes. What will happen in 50 years and what will happen in 100 years?
Let's keep world's population, Sun's activity, sea level, ice coverage etc.. all fixed.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:48 pm

Sorta OT Q, do those little CO2 cartridges used for inflating bike tires contribute to climate change?
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WetEV
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:07 am

the public get risk wrong because powerful interests make a serious effort to scare them about some of life’s little hazards, or to reassure them about others.


https://www.lightbluetouchpaper.org/201 ... bout-risk/
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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edatoakrun
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:48 pm

What's the worst that could happen?

Unfortunately, it looks like we will probably find out...

IS IT SO BAD IF THE WORLD GETS A LITTLE HOTTER? UH, YEAH

...If humanity burns through all its fossil fuel reserves, there is the potential to warm the planet by perhaps more than 10 degrees Celsius and raise sea levels by hundreds of feet. This is a warming spike comparable in magnitude to that so far measured for the End-Permian mass extinction. If the worst-case scenarios come to pass, today’s modestly menacing ocean-climate system will seem quaint. Even warming to half of that amount would create a planet that would have nothing to do with the one on which humans evolved, or on which civilization has been built. The last time it was 4 degrees warmer there was no ice at either pole and sea level was hundreds of feet higher than it is today...

https://www.wired.com/story/is-it-so-ba ... r-uh-yeah/

Fortunately, it doesn't look likely to top 110 degrees up here in North California... until Summer really hits, in a few more weeks.

Record-threatening, ‘crazy’ heat forecast for western U.S. early next week

Interior California and the desert Southwest are bracing for a long and intense heat wave, forecast to start this weekend and continue well into next week.

The worst of the heat is expected Monday or Tuesday, when many locations will witness temperatures 15 to 30 degrees above normal, challenging records.

The National Weather Service has hoisted an excessive heat warning for Phoenix on Sunday through Wednesday, and excessive heat watches in Las Vegas, San Jose and Sacramento for the weekend and early next week.

In Phoenix, high temperatures are forecast to reach 110 to 120 degrees during this extended stretch...

Monday and Tuesday could be historically hot days, near 120 degrees — which would rank among the top five hottest temperatures ever recorded in Phoenix...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 3a3cf8c1f8
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GRA
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Re: IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:15 pm

edatoakrun wrote:<nsip>
Record-threatening, ‘crazy’ heat forecast for western U.S. early next week

Interior California and the desert Southwest are bracing for a long and intense heat wave, forecast to start this weekend and continue well into next week.

The worst of the heat is expected Monday or Tuesday, when many locations will witness temperatures 15 to 30 degrees above normal, challenging records.

The National Weather Service has hoisted an excessive heat warning for Phoenix on Sunday through Wednesday, and excessive heat watches in Las Vegas, San Jose and Sacramento for the weekend and early next week.

In Phoenix, high temperatures are forecast to reach 110 to 120 degrees during this extended stretch...

Monday and Tuesday could be historically hot days, near 120 degrees — which would rank among the top five hottest temperatures ever recorded in Phoenix...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 3a3cf8c1f8

The weird part as far as Norcal is that we had snow in the Lake Tahoe area just last Sunday, as well as high winds, some light rain, thunder and lightning, hail, a funnel cloud and below average temps in the Bay Area and Sacramento. While not unheard of, snow in June is extremely rare - even May is somewhat uncommon. Temps have been climbing steadily since then, and were in the normal range the past couple of days, but are forecast to break records in many places for the next week or so, with pretty much the entire Central Valley in triple digits a little early in the season.
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