GRA
Posts: 8345
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Report finds road transportation sector in Canada likely to fall far short of 2050 GHG emissions reduction target

Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:10 pm

abasile wrote:
GRA wrote:Not that I'll be around for much of it, but it will be interesting to see what happens to Canada's population over the rest of the century. With forecasts that the Bay Area's climate will resemble San Diego's in a few decades, and a similar knock-on effect as you go northwards, maybe provinces like Saskatchewan and Manitoba will become major growth areas.

I've been thinking the same thing, that Canada is poised for significant growth, though I suspect that the great majority of North America's growth will continue to occur closer to the coasts (and in Canada the Great Lakes), as the central states and provinces seem to have a harder time attracting new residents. The major exception to this is Texas, and to some degree North Dakota due to the shale boom there.

I expect that BC/Alberta and Eastern Ontario/Quebec will attract the majority of the population growth, but I won't be surprised if there's a considerable increase in the 'plains' states in the middle as well.

abasile wrote:That said, the growth of the "sunbelt" indicates that a huge fraction of the population, maybe even a majority, finds snow and cold to be so unattractive, in their day to day lives, that they are willing to instead rely on A/C for many months of the year. So, while agriculture will move northward, I don't think people will be quick to abandon southern cities. For instance, while I as an outdoors person would consider Phoenix to be uninhabitable, it continues to grow. Of course, that means more and more people using cars to transport A/C from building to building. I suppose that's far more pleasant than being confined to a possible settlement on Mars, however.

It will be interesting to see if the sunbirds choose to travel TO NYC for the winter, in future :D In the case of a city in the desert southwest like Phoenix, water shortages will limit population growth before energy usage does. They're already running as fast as they can to stay in the same place, trying to build infrastructure to import water from quite long distances, as their existing sources are oversubscribed now. If you're interested in the details, see "A Great Aridness: Climate Change and the Future of the American Southwest" http://www.amazon.com/Great-Aridness-Cl ... 0199974675
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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