Interesting article on Oil

http://seekingalpha.com/article/243656-twip-report-warns-of-much-higher-gas-prices?source=yahoo

"As indicated by the Joint Forces warning to US military commands, price increases will get much higher: "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."

The International Energy Agency (US Treaty Member) in the 2010 World Energy Outlook reinforces the military warning, noting the economy depends on oil "fields yet to be found".

Discuss.

I suspect (or at least I'm hoping) that more and more of us transition towards EVs and hybrids, the demand for gasoline will decline, and the price will then decline too - or at least stabilize.

Discuss.

With EV introductions only a small "drop in the bucket" by 2015, even by 2020,

With world populations still expanding, and

With increasing Oil usage demands by an increasing percentage of people ...

I feel that there is little hope of avoiding substantially escalating oil prices.

Further, actual insufficient supply of oil to meet "normal" transportation and heating uses will probably cause economic "tidal waves" to sweep around the world, missing only the very wealthy.

Indeed, the current economic "adjustment" might seem like just a "lull" in the Storm that is almost sure to arrive, sooner or later.

For those interested in the topic of peak oil, I suggest heading over to http://theoildrum.com/.

Be prepared to spend a lot of time there if you are new to the subject!

Besides peak oil, they also discuss other resource peaks (coal, natural gas, etc) which are likely to affect us in our lifetime.

A lot of people are expecting oil to exceed $100/barrel in 2011 - primarily on growth in demand from China and India. Expect gas prices to steadily climb as a result.

Right now gas prices are at 2007 levels except that demand in the USA is down a significant amount. If the economy continues to slowly improve, expect gas prices to continue to climb. I highly suspect that high oil prices will put a damper on economic recovery.

During the oil price spike in 2008, I read an analysis that showed that demand for diesel fuel was the primary cause for high oil prices - foreign demand was so high that diesel was actually exported from the US - that just does not happen. This is reflected by the recent shift in diesel costs to exceed gasoline costs. Historically, diesel has always been less expensive, but since the oil price peak in 2008 diesel has been consistently more expensive.

Since EVs will primarily offset gasoline consumption at first, I don't think they will do much to help reduce oil prices. Hopefully Smith EV gains some additional steam with their EV trucks. If diesel prices remain high, expect to see more of a shift to rail which is a LOT more energy efficient than trucks. Apparently some of the issue with EV truck adoption is that it's hard to lease a truck, which is what most companies prefer to do as they aren't able to price the residual value. Hopefully they figure that out soon...

LakeLeaf said:

I suspect (or at least I'm hoping) that more and more of us transition towards EVs and hybrids, the demand for gasoline will decline, and the price will then decline too - or at least stabilize.

Click to expand...

For every EV sold in the US a thousand new cars are sold to people who never had a car before in China/India.

I think that we need to re-think how we do many things.

Like, NY is walking, subway, and a SEA of taxicabs.

What if we increased the busses in LA area by a factor of at least 10000, and have weatherproof walkways, so that no place is more than a few blocks from a bus line, busses arrive every 15 to 60 seconds, and (like the taxicabs) make private cars unnecessary.

Coupled with trains, subways, and main feeder routes, getting places might even be done in reasonable times.

Integrating living, playing, and work areas will reduce the need for the scurry of commuting that we experience.

Some nice "planned communities" forgot to integrate working and shopping with sleeping.

The huge sprawl of single-family dwellings is likely to become a thing of the past as populations increase and new integrated communities develop.

garygid said:

What if we increased the busses in LA area by a factor of at least 10000

Click to expand...

Perhaps a large fraction of these could be trolley buses (rubber tires, overhead wires) but with onboard batteries allowing them to roam freely near the ends of their routes and recharge while in service during the center of their runs when more passengers are entering and exiting.

I haven't been in Chicago for many years, but had the privilege of spending a year and a half there nearly fifty years ago. My wife and I didn't own a car, but between the El and the buses we never had any problem getting around. I was constantly amazed that I could walk out to the street corner at any time and a bus would be along in a couple of minutes or less. Closer to downtown it was typical for the next bus to pull into the bus stop as soon as the preceding one pulled out.

Gary, you mean like the trolley lines cities used to have before GM and big oil dismantled them? LA was one of the cities, FYI

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_streetcar_scandal?wasRedirected=true

Exactly!
Nothing better than "uprooting" your competition?

Well, the "same" ... except even better.

But, people would have to start thinking differently,
have different priorities, and actually LIVE differently.

this report has nothing new. i also have one written by the Puget Sound Energy Counsel that mirrors this one nearly word for word. it was written in 1998 and updated in 2002 (most likely due to 9-11)

it also states that increased gas prices would hit this area a bit harder than most because of our HUGE import/export trade inbalance. this area is chiefly responsible for helping to maintain our trade balance (we are failing miserably) due to large trade surpluses by Boeing, Microsoft ( i question the creative math that is used to put Microsoft in this category!!) and others.

and they are right. other than Nissan, a foreign company; our efforts (laughable really to use that word!!) into EV promotion, manufacturing and use is pathetic.

our efforts to promote and encourage renewable energy like wind and solar is nonexistent. who in their right mind expects a homeowner to pony up tens of thousands of their own money for something that will not pay them back in their lifetime especially when a publicly funded utility will be the main benefactor?? once again the ultimate example of short-sighted stupidity on the part of our legislators.

couple that with paying 25 cents on the dollar to fill up our cars. this has done nothing but allow us to continue our blind ignorance as to the true cost of burning oil. unlike many countries, we are completely unprepared to deal with the REAL oil shock when it hits and i fear it will hit us in the next 5 years. most papers including the one referenced above predicted the proverbial "fan assault" to happen on or around 2015-2020.

so its up to us to show that EVs will work. Nissans great effort to put EVs on the road has been slowed by probably some minor technical hurdle, our great reluctance to drive EVs, etc. which makes this launch all that more critical.

i truly wish that i could go to EVs and simply thumb my nose at all the idiots who continue to drive their empty 20 mpg pickup trucks across the county every day (i knew SEVERAL co-workers paying $200+ per month during fall/2008 just for gas to make it back and forth to work) but unfortunately my bubble will not insulate me from the blatant stupidity and blind greed that has led this country into the energy abyss its currently speeding to unabated.

Local Air Quality Management Districts in CA have been very active (and successful) in pursuing reductions in emissions from stationary sources (basically industry and small businesses), but responsibility for reducing mobile source emissions is outside their jurisdiction, falling to CARB (California Air Resource Board). We are now at a point where the majority of emissions come from mobile sources, so there needs to be more activity in this arena. Reducing traffic and emissions can work hand in hand if one uses a taxations scheme like London where alternative fuel vehicles are exempt. The money collected can then be used to provide incentives to EVs and other alternative fuel vehicles like natural gas vehicles (CNG, LNG).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_congestion_charge

If sucessful, this type of program could lead to a reduction in demand for diesel and gasoline in major metropolitan areas, reducing the price increase we'll see for these fuels when (if?) the economy picks up. In my opinion, EV adoption won't be high enough for the next 5-10 years to offset a major price increase in gasoline and diesel. Throw in CNG which already has a robust infrastructure in CA and other areas across th US and the equation changes. There are those that see natural gas use as just another hydrocarbon. The reality is it is mostly domestic (read NO money going to Saudis and from there to terrorists) and has much lower emissions (SOx, NOx and GHGs) than gasoline or diesel. It's not as good as EV, but it would work great as a bridge fuel as EVs develop. By the way, my wife and I currently drive 2 Civic GX's (CNG) so I'm definitely partial to CNG use over Gasoline and Diesel.

Having said all that, I wish Nissan would hurry up and give me a delivery date for my LEAF.

Last two posts, Dave and Adrian
Well said, I agree.