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evnow
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:03 pm

Here is an important graph.

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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:09 pm

There, you see! No shortage coming, just "unidentified projects"!
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mitch672
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:21 pm

"unidentified projects" would be the plan that the "Electrification Coalition" has come up with, to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to electricfication by 2040, that will be about the only solution, along with a huge amount of nuclear, solar, wind, and thermal (non carbon derived energy sources)
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:26 pm

Similar chart to the last one I posted - though it shows a drop-off starting around 2012 vice ~2018. The bottom of the chart's 'spare capacity' was interesting and telling.

Those charts are all estimates and we can change them if we choose. I hope we do.

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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:27 pm

mitch672 wrote:"unidentified projects" would be the plan that the "Electrification Coalition" has come up with, to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to electricfication by 2040, that will be about the only solution, along with a huge amount of nuclear, solar, wind, and thermal (non carbon derived energy sources)


Not sure that's what they're saying, Mitch, unless we use the electricity to make liquid fuels.

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evnow
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 6:29 pm

mitch672 wrote:"unidentified projects" would be the plan that the "Electrification Coalition" has come up with, to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to electricfication by 2040...


You know this is for the world - and in China/India they have large car sales growth mainly with first time car buyers. Every gallon saved in the US will be staked by several people in China/india.
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mitch672
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 7:02 pm

evnow wrote:
mitch672 wrote:"unidentified projects" would be the plan that the "Electrification Coalition" has come up with, to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to electricfication by 2040...


You know this is for the world - and in China/India they have large car sales growth mainly with first time car buyers. Every gallon saved in the US will be staked by several people in China/india.


I'm fairly certain that as (and if) the US light duty fleet is converting to electrification, we can be failry certain that China and India will be right there with us... They will probably wait untl battery technology improves, the range improves, let the US and the "rich" countries have the early adopter issues, when it has matured, you can be sure China and India will jump in as well. The only solution has to be worldwide, not just the US and the first world countries of the world. China can manufacture anything it wants, if it decides to make only electric vehicles in 6 months, or a year, they could probably pull it off. Don't underestimate the chinese, they are also very good at copying other's ideas/products. How long do you think it will take them to come up with Leaf "clones"?
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evnow
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 7:09 pm

mitch672 wrote:I'm fairly certain that as (and if) the US light duty fleet is converting to electrification...


In any case, according to the EC study, by 2030 electrification in the US will save all of 3 mbpd. The "unidentified projects" in 2030 is 60 mbpd :(
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mitch672
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 7:19 pm

well then, I suppose the end of our standard of living is comming, eventually.

By 2030 if I am still alive I will be 70, and hopefully blisfully unaware of how bad things have become. :(

there is also the possibility that things can change that we can't anticipate yet, to solve/aleviate the issue partialy.

Probably not good things either, such as massive climate change causing droughts, food
& water shortages, etc, all things that will change the numbers as the population decreases or stabilizes due to other shortages/problems. The next set of wars will be fought over clean water, not oil.
Last edited by mitch672 on Mon May 17, 2010 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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evnow
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Re: Peak Oil has Likely Come and Gone - Now What?

Mon May 17, 2010 7:33 pm

mitch672 wrote:The next set of wars will be fought over clean water, not oil.


Quite likely.

http://www.amazon.com/When-Rivers-Run-D ... t_ep_dpt_2

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