http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/12 ... delft.html
Study: growth in aviation and shipping GHG emissions will undo 43% of savings from rest of transport in Europe through 2030
. . . Under measures already in place, land transport is expected to consume 43 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) less energy per year in 2030 than it did in 2010, according to calculations on the European Commission’s projections for greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 by consultant CE Delft. Even this 43 Mtoe cut is less than half of what will be required from land transport under the EU’s proposed 2030 Effort Sharing Regulation. . . .
However, ships and planes in Europe will consume 19 Mtoe more fuel annually in 2030 than they did 20 years earlier. So the growth in these two sectors will undo almost half of the progress made by cars, vans, trucks, rail and inland navigation. . . .
The analysis found that the share of the maritime transport sector as part of the EU demand for liquid fossil fuels rises consistently over the years, from 11% in 2010 to 14% in 2030. The share of aviation rises from 13% in 2010 to 16% in 2030.