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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:03 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
WetEV wrote:Exit polls are interesting. For example:

"Q: Do you think Hillary Clinton is qualified to serve as president? Yes = 52%"
"Q: Do you think Donald Trump is qualified to serve as president? Yes = 38%"

So how did Donald Trump win? The voters didn't think him the most qualified.

Maybe the polling process was flawed.


Shooting the messenger, eh?

Or perhaps some people voted for a less qualified candidate in their opinion for some reason? What were the reason(s)?

I can think of a few. Can you?
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:47 am

WetEV wrote:Shooting the messenger, eh?

Or perhaps some people voted for a less qualified candidate in their opinion for some reason? What were the reason(s)?

I can think of a few. Can you?

I can think of plenty of reasons people didn't vote for HRC, none of them having to do with people's skin color or what they do with their genitals. But that wasn't my point. Was the poll run by the same people who said there was no path to victory for DT in early November?

Just curious, did any pollsters ask you who you were going to vote for? Nobody asked me.
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:26 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Just curious, did any pollsters ask you who you were going to vote for? Nobody asked me.


Suppose you have a pile of parts. How many do you need to test, chosen at random, before you know to 95% certainty that 95% or more of all the parts are good? Sure, need to test all of them if you have 20 parts. But what if you have 20 million?
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:30 pm

WetEV wrote:
golfcart wrote:I don't claim to understand all the reasons Trump was elected, but something like that doesn't happen in a vacuum. Clearly the existing political parties had not gained the trust of a large portions of Americans... that includes the 10% of Blacks, 30% of Asians and 30% of Hispanics that voted for Trump according to exit polling which you never hear about because the media wants this to be about "racist" and "xenophobic" working class whites only.


I went and checked numbers... Yea, a trust issue.

8% of Blacks voted for Trump
27% of Asians voted for Trump
28% of Hispanic voted for Trump

Source Fox News, the other mainstream media.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/electio ... exit-polls

Trump wouldn't be President with these numbers. And not everyone that voted for Trump because they liked him. Mrs. Clinton has a few issues as well, and Trump did a great job in keeping these in the news, and some people vote on specific issues such as abortion. There are some that vote straight party line, some for understandable historic issues. Such as Cubans for Republicans.

There is a substantial racist and xenophobic support for the Donald. I know, as I have relatives that resemble that statement closely. Trump has excited these people, as Trump is openly xenophobic and racist. Not all people that voted for him are, of course, as I've pointed out above.

Exit polls are interesting. For example:

"Q: Do you think Hillary Clinton is qualified to serve as president? Yes = 52%"
"Q: Do you think Donald Trump is qualified to serve as president? Yes = 38%"

So how did Donald Trump win? The voters didn't think him the most qualified.


Sorry, my sarcasm detector is poorly calibrated so I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Are you saying my numbers are off because i rounded up a couple of percentage points and that invalidates my point or are you sort of agreeing with me?

My specific point there was that, if you trust the polling to be even remotely correct, there were a lot more people than just "pissed of bigoted white people" that voted for Trump including a large portion of Hispanics who he supposedly hates (because the media generally makes no distinction between legal and illegal immigration when they are getting up in their soapbox). But you hear nothing about those people in the news, instead you get a bunch of people psuedo-studying rednecks in flyover country like they are anthropologists discovering some ancient civilization in a faraway land. It is laughable... they are trying so hard to maintain the bigoted whites vs 'woke' whites and people of color narrative that it makes them look silly.

Of course there is a nationalist component (some might call xenophobic) to some of Trumps support. Of course there are some racists that voted for Trump. And of course a bunch of white people who feel like their interests have been left behind by republican corporatism and democrat globalism and multiculturalism that voted for him. There are also legal immigrants that don't like democrats apparent disregard for federal immigration law that voted for him (I work with one). There are also black people that can't understand why there are people illegally coming into the country and finding work while the unemployment rate in their community is near 30% (my neighbor is one).

If people trusted that the existing parties were looking out for their interest it would have been Jeb vs Clinton not Trump vs Clinton. And if the Democrats didn't rig the primary for Hillary it could have likely been Sanders vs Trump instead of Hillary vs Trump (and I suspect Sanders would have won because he spoke to the same issues as Trump with remedies that treated all Americans the same). The message I take away from this election is that a large portion of the country doesn't feel like the government is representing their interest and they voted for a guy that raised a middle finger to the whole establishment.
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:45 pm

golfcart wrote:Sorry, my sarcasm detector is poorly calibrated so I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Are you saying my numbers are off because i rounded up a couple of percentage points and that invalidates my point or are you sort of agreeing with me?


Yes.

It is complex, isn't it?

Politics is based on trust. Inaccurate numbers reduce trust. Even if I agree with you.
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:57 pm

WetEV wrote:
golfcart wrote:Sorry, my sarcasm detector is poorly calibrated so I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Are you saying my numbers are off because i rounded up a couple of percentage points and that invalidates my point or are you sort of agreeing with me?


Yes.

It is complex, isn't it?

Politics is based on trust. Inaccurate numbers reduce trust. Even if I agree with you.


LOL, I'll give it to the 2nd decimal next time if that makes you feel better. Ironically, the New York Times (which is what I referenced when I made that post) had Hispanics and Asians at 29% each and Blacks at 8%. I might have expected Fox to have the more favorable minorities for trump numbers. haha. That said, I felt like 30%, 30%, and 10% was close enough... it's not like I'm running for office.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... .html?_r=0
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:27 pm

WetEV wrote:Suppose you have a pile of parts. How many do you need to test, chosen at random, before you know to 95% certainty that 95% or more of all the parts are good? Sure, need to test all of them if you have 20 parts. But what if you have 20 million?

Maybe they weren't chosen at random. Something was flawed in their process because they came up with the wrong answer. Bigly.
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:40 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
WetEV wrote:Suppose you have a pile of parts. How many do you need to test, chosen at random, before you know to 95% certainty that 95% or more of all the parts are good? Sure, need to test all of them if you have 20 parts. But what if you have 20 million?

Maybe they weren't chosen at random. Something was flawed in their process because they came up with the wrong answer. Bigly.


Really? Clinton won by almost 3 million votes: 65,853,625 votes to 62,985,106 votes.

Margin of error of polls is usually around +-3%, hard to do much better. Clinton was leading by 44% to 40%, and won the popular vote by more than 2%, so inside of margin of error.

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/ ... 0-1000.png

So the polls were fine.

Oh, the polls were not done by electoral collage. So national polls were answering the wrong question, to an extent.

What was more flawed was the interpretation of the polls. And even that wasn't so far off:

28.2% chance of Trump winning, as of Nov 8th. (Polls-plus forecast)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

So flip two coins. Got two heads? Now is that really unlikely?
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:50 pm

WetEV wrote:28.2% chance of Trump winning, as of Nov 8th. (Polls-plus forecast)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

So flip two coins. Got two heads? Now is that really unlikely?


I wouldn't want to accuse you of cherrypicking but your own link puts the odds of Trump winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote (which is what happened) at 10.5% in the "crazy and not so crazy scenarios" section at the bottom. And you were giving me a hard time about rounding up from 29% to 30% ;)

And here is the NYT compilation of a bunch of other "expert" forecasts (scroll down the page about 40% of the way), I trust that you were unaware of 538 being by far one of the most Trump friendly "expert" models when you decided to reference that one...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ecast.html

I'll go over a few of the highlights:

NYT: 85% Clinton
538: 71% Clinton
HuffPo: 98% Clinton
PredictWise: 89% Clinton
Princeton Election Consortium: 99% Clinton
Daily Kos: 92% Clinton

I tend to side with LTLFTcomposite based on those predictions. The "experts" blew this one... bigly. Either their models suck or the polling was flawed. Most of those are like fiipping 4 coins in a row and getting heads every time. Not impossible, but definitely not likely. And certainly not the kind of performance I'd trust in the future unless they could point to some flaw, like people lying at the polls, which contributed to their colossal failure.

And enough about the popular vote already, it didn't matter one bit. It is the equivalent of the Sixers saying they should have beat the Warriors because they made more field goals even though the Warriors outscored them by 10... one team made a bunch of layups while the other team made a bunch of 3's. Like them or not, those are the rules of the game...
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Re: Trumpists begin their attack on America's EV policies.

Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:59 pm

So WetEV you're telling us pollsters were unaware of how presidential elections work? You're not making a very convincing argument for the "science" here.
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