RegGuheert wrote:I never thought I would see the day when this happened.
How long before we become a net exporter again?
The interesting question is how long does the fracking increase last?
We are past the peak of conventional oil, and conventional oil production has been declining.
Horizontal drilling and fracturing has different economics and geology. Best case is more expensive. Again, there will be a total recoverable reserve, and at some point in the future the production will peak and decline. Other higher cost reserves could then be tapped. Tar sands, oil shales and coal to liquids, in roughly that order. Cost might decide otherwise, if solar -> batteries is cheaper than coal -> liquids, very little coal will be Fisher Tropsch'ed into gasoline. If not stopped by economics, will be stopped by global warming.
I've not seen a believable total recoverable reserve estimate for fracking oil production. Still too many unknowns.