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Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:05 am
by Zythryn
[quote=“DarthPuppy”]And if Tesla is particularly green in their battery sourcing, then think how much more fleet-wide impact they could have if they would allocate some of their batteries and get 3-4x the cars out to more people at affordable price points? Again, the battery size analysis is very worthwhile.[/quote]

I second everything SageBrush said below.

If this were a mathematical problem, I would agree with you, as well as GRA’s point about PHEVs>BEVs.
It isn’t though, it is a psychological problem. How do you get people to adopt “greener” solutions? When hybrids were the ‘greenest’ car around, they peaked out at about 4% market share. There just aren’t that many people that put CO2 emissions at the top of their priority list.
So, how to advance EVs in general? Appeal to a much broader section of the market. Make the, appealing to those that want POWER, EXCITEMENT, SEXY, great handling, meanwhile practical, convenient (for many), and provides a world class driving experience.
The section of the market that wants that is larger than the market section that wants ‘green’.
If someone else thinks there is a better way, great, go for it. Tesla would be happy to have another company selling more EVs.



SageBrush wrote:What good are small batteries that consumers do not want ?
Look at the sales stats in the USA: People overwhelmingly want Tesla, and a big part of that is larger batteries.

Second, Tesla is supply constrained due to production bottle-necks, not due to raw material limits. I don't think they could make many more cars than they do presently even if the battery size was halved.

Lastly, while it is certainly true that raw material mining and transport are dirty and in some cases miserable activities, each generation of recycled battery using sustainable methods halves their impact.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:10 pm
by DarthPuppy
SageBrush wrote:What good are small batteries that consumers do not want ?
Look at the sales stats in the USA: People overwhelmingly want Tesla, and a big part of that is larger batteries.


Yes people want Tesla's range. Like I said above, I'd love to have Tesla's range. But I'm not willing to pay Tesla's price for it and I sincerely doubt I'm the only consumer balking at that. If you want to focus on sales stats in the USA, people want gas guzzling SUVs, not green cars, so why bother with EVs at all?

As for what good small batteries are, the last time I looked, there were substantial numbers of non-Tesla EV and PHEV sales. Not nearly at the levels us in the pro-EV community would want, but Tesla's sales aren't at that level either. Doesn't the Leaf still have the worldwide sales lead to date despite Tesla being around about as long with that magical large battery size? All of those small batteries are successfully displacing gas consumption in routine commutes - that is a lot of gas consumption and emission reduction. That is a lot of good!

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:29 pm
by DarthPuppy
Zythryn wrote:It isn’t though, it is a psychological problem. How do you get people to adopt “greener” solutions? When hybrids were the ‘greenest’ car around, they peaked out at about 4% market share. There just aren’t that many people that put CO2 emissions at the top of their priority list.
So, how to advance EVs in general? Appeal to a much broader section of the market. Make the, appealing to those that want POWER, EXCITEMENT, SEXY, great handling, meanwhile practical, convenient (for many), and provides a world class driving experience.
The section of the market that wants that is larger than the market section that wants ‘green’.


True, there is a major psychological aspect at play and we need to do better at marketing green.

Congrats, you just defined the luxury sport sedan market. Do people want that? Absolutely! And yes, that is broader than the current green market. But that is nothing compared to the affordable and practical market. I see lots of low end Corollas and Civics running around. I bet if we look at sales statistics, those 2 models blow away most other cars. And there are lots of other econo-cars running around that blow away any EV on sales. Yes people want what you described, but we really need to reach more than just those consumers in the top 5% of the economy if we really want EVs to become mainstream. We need a variety of products that can hit different market niches. And that requires affordability, which given battery cost constraints, means having options with smaller batteries. Satisfying the green whims of the 1%'rs isn't going to make a very meaningful improvement in our society's carbon footprint. Tesla is great at appealing to the 1%. I see those all over Malibu and Santa Monica. But we need cars that appeal to the masses - and those consumers can't afford the current Tesla offerings. Now if they will do the SR version while full incentives are available, they would start to cut into a much deeper potential market.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:35 pm
by SageBrush
DarthPuppy wrote:
SageBrush wrote:As for what good small batteries are, the last time I looked, there were substantial numbers of non-Tesla EV and PHEV sales.!

Look at August sales numbers for *EV, and keep in mind that Tesla is supply constrained. If I recall correctly, Tesla accounted for 70% of *EV sales in the US this past month and the fraction will increase as Tesla supply constraints loosen up.

Look at EV sales growth in the US over the past year. It is overwhelmingly due to Tesla. If *EV adoption is your goal, pay attention to what people are mostly buying. I should point out that Tesla is far from *only* a big battery EV, or it would sell like the Chevy Bolt. My point is that a big battery is a key feature to sales.

You bought a PHEV; I bought a PHEV. They are a *brilliant* solution ... that few people want.
Incidentally, PHEVs are doing really well in Europe although I'm not sure how many EV miles are put on them. The purchases are driven by tax credits. Hopefully the high price of petrol is enough to overcome the convenience barrier. That motivation of course does not exist in the US for now.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:41 pm
by Zythryn
DarthPuppy wrote:
Zythryn wrote:It isn’t though, it is a psychological problem. How do you get people to adopt “greener” solutions? When hybrids were the ‘greenest’ car around, they peaked out at about 4% market share. There just aren’t that many people that put CO2 emissions at the top of their priority list.
So, how to advance EVs in general? Appeal to a much broader section of the market. Make the, appealing to those that want POWER, EXCITEMENT, SEXY, great handling, meanwhile practical, convenient (for many), and provides a world class driving experience.
The section of the market that wants that is larger than the market section that wants ‘green’.


True, there is a major psychological aspect at play and we need to do better at marketing green.

... I bet if we look at sales statistics, those 2 models [Corolla & Civic] blow away most other cars. And there are lots of other econo-cars running around that blow away any EV on sales. Yes people want what you described, but we really need to reach more than just those consumers in the top 5% of the economy if we really want EVs to become mainstream. ....


You belittle Tesla’s contribution.
There are NOT a “lot of other econo-cars running around that blow away the Model 3 on August sales.
There are exactly four. In August, the Model 3 was the number five best seller by units sold, and number one measured by revenue.

I agree completely that we need more variety and less expensive options. However, denigrating Tesla as not being green enough, when it is outselling the much less expensive EVs with much “greener” sized batteries seems a bit odd.
If Tesla found the secret sauce to get people out of ICE vehicles, isn’t that a good thing?

I’m all for better solutions, but don’t stand in the way of people with good solutions, until you can deliver on the perfect ones. ;)

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:21 pm
by DarthPuppy
Zythryn wrote:You belittle Tesla’s contribution..., denigrating Tesla as not being green enough, ...but don’t stand in the way of people with good solutions


Please refrain from putting words into my mouth and making false accusations about what I am saying. Nowhere am I denigrating Tesla as not being green enough. I do like their cars and they have done great things to advance the state of the EV market. However, they are not the magic bullet. That is all I'm saying. Sorry if this runs counter to your beliefs but baseless attacks are not appropriate.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:51 pm
by DarthPuppy
Zythryn wrote:There are NOT a “lot of other econo-cars running around that blow away the Model 3 on August sales.
There are exactly four. In August, the Model 3 was the number five best seller by units sold, and number one measured by revenue.


You might want to actually look at the numbers you claim support your stance before you post stuff. YTD Civics and Corollas sold 434k units in the U.S. vs. 56k Model 3. And a whole bunch of other econo-cars have many more out there and continuing to hit the market each month. Gee, I wonder why I see so many of these cars rolling around and so few Model 3s. Yes, as Tesla ramps up and overcomes the capacity constraints, they will become a more significant part of the market. But the top 15 cars year to date total to over 1.9 million (that's nearly 2 million units). Oh, and what do all of those top 15 slots have in common? Quick glance suggests they can all be had at least in base configuation for less than $30k unless I'm confused about those model prices.

So yes, there ARE a lot of other econo-cars running around that blow away the Model 3 in sales. You might want to get your facts straight before you say there aren't.

I do hope that Tesla becomes a long term success story. Having a green car that appeals to the top 5% economic niche does help as that is a niche that has a lot of buying power and influence. Seeing successful people drive EVs gives EVs credibility. Marketers usually don't use homeless persons as the models for their new fashions when trying to sell clothes. But at $50k per unit, they are not a solution to the over 2 million units a year that are under $30k. It doesn't matter how attractive the car is. The truth is a lot of those people buying those $30k and under cars are stretching to do that and a lot can't afford the cars they are buying. They aren't going to suddenly stretch to the Tesla price level.

Basically all I'm saying is there needs to be variety and lower cost options to achieve widespread adoption. And unless you have some magic solution that solves all battery supply constraints, lower cost options mean some will have to have smaller battery size.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:18 pm
by DarthPuppy
SageBrush wrote:Look at EV sales growth in the US over the past year. It is overwhelmingly due to Tesla. If *EV adoption is your goal, pay attention to what people are mostly buying.


Looking at those numbers, yes, Tesla is leading the EV market space at the moment. But Tesla accounts for roughly 84k of the 190k US EV/PHEV sales YTD. That means there were 106k non-Teslas. So again, there is a market for those smaller batteries. And just as Tesla is capacity constrained, many of the other EV/PHEV are constrained as well. Some because the manufacturer is only doing compliance models only available in required states, aren't committed to making them in large quantities, aren't committed to making competitive version, or have dealers who don't want to stock and sell them, etc., The list of excuses why people can't find an EV at the local dealer despite the brand's website trumpeting an EV model is probably longer.

Tesla is a good product. I would like one. I'm not willing to pay that much for one though. And I'm someone who could and am more attuned to green issues than the typical consumer, though probably not as dedicated as many on this forum. And most US consumers can't afford Tesla. Mass market adoption requires affordability. Affordability requires compromises, at least until battery supply constraints and prices drop by sizable amounts.

The fact that current EV buyers are buying high end does not translate to what is needed for mass market adoption. I haven't seen a recent study on income of EV buyers. In 2013 right after I bought my Leaf, I saw a study that indicated the average EV buyer earned at least $100k per year. That is not the mass market. At the early stages, many early adopters are going to be people who have the financial flexibility to switch out of it if they don't like it. I sure hope we are still in the early stages because if this is a mature EV market, mass EV adoption is doomed.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:05 am
by Zythryn
DarthPuppy wrote:
Zythryn wrote:You belittle Tesla’s contribution..., denigrating Tesla as not being green enough, ...but don’t stand in the way of people with good solutions


Please refrain from putting words into my mouth and making false accusations about what I am saying. Nowhere am I denigrating Tesla as not being green enough. I do like their cars and they have done great things to advance the state of the EV market. However, they are not the magic bullet. That is all I'm saying. Sorry if this runs counter to your beliefs but baseless attacks are not appropriate.


No apologies necessary as those are exactly my beliefs.
You do seem to be the one responding to points I don’t make and attribute “beliefs” that are not held by me.

For example, your bringing up the YTD numbers to refute my position. I very specifically noted the August sales. YTD doesn’t show this of course as Tesla is in the ramp-up mode for the Model 3. For August, the Model 3 is #5 in the US.
The yearly sales in 2019 should be fascinating.

And I agree with you that multiple options are important.
But I do believe you are belittling, or to put it mildly, understating, Tesla’s current contributions.

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:00 pm
by DarthPuppy
Zythryn wrote:For example, your bringing up the YTD numbers to refute my position. I very specifically noted the August sales. YTD doesn’t show this of course as Tesla is in the ramp-up mode for the Model 3. For August, the Model 3 is #5 in the US.
The yearly sales in 2019 should be fascinating.


When I pulled up August sales data since you mentioned that, it was a large table of data which appropriately included YTD numbers. These can't be ignored as they demonstrate a sheer magnitude that will likely take at least a decade for Tesla to really crack and become commonplace or typical on the streets of America. For your assertion, you ignored 95% of the data and focused on just the handful of numbers that support your assertion. Of course I'm going to correct that.

I too would love for Tesla's Model 3 to replace a large portion of what will likely be close to 3 million sub-$30k cars sold in the US this year. And yes, the full-year and 2019 stats should be quite fascinating. But we can't conveniently ignore the huge volumes of cars we are talking about. Hopefully they will continue to chug along and be in the top 5 each and every month going forward. But right now, they aren't pitching to mainstream America. They are selling only to those who can afford to buy a new Mercedes, Audi, BMW, etc. Eventually that pool of customers who want Teslas will be saturated. The real large market, which drives national level gas and emissions issues, is the sub-$30k group who buy millions of units each year.