SageBrush
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:57 pm

Different climates and geographies, different solutions.
Japan, like the UK, have immense off-shore wind resources.
Japan is estimated at 600 GW and 40-50% capacity factor.
Current national budget is 1100 TWh a year.
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DarthPuppy
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:36 pm

Yes, the solutions deployed need to be adjusted based on the particulars of the locale. Some spots, wind and wave action will work well. Other spots solar will work well. For some, geothermal could be good while others hydro-electric is favorable. I don't think switching to renewables or carbon-free is suitable to the one-size-fits-all approach.

And some spots are going to have a real tough time with the switch. If someone can name a megacity without convenient access to ocean waves, good wind, geothermal or hydroelectic resources or lots of sun, getting that place 'greenish' is going to be a real challenge.
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SageBrush
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:45 pm

DarthPuppy wrote:And some spots are going to have a real tough time with the switch. If someone can name a megacity without convenient access to ocean waves, good wind, geothermal or hydroelectic resources or lots of sun, getting that place 'greenish' is going to be a real challenge.

Nothing a couple of HVDC lines cannot solve. Current state of the art is 6 GW. For context, a typical nuke plant is 2 GW while Fukushima at its peak was 4.7 GW

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/new ... akthrough/
Last edited by SageBrush on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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SageBrush
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:53 pm

Duplicate post
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
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2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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RegGuheert
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:29 am

SageBrush wrote:
DarthPuppy wrote:And some spots are going to have a real tough time with the switch. If someone can name a megacity without convenient access to ocean waves, good wind, geothermal or hydroelectic resources or lots of sun, getting that place 'greenish' is going to be a real challenge.

Nothing a couple of HVDC lines cannot solve. Current state of the art is 6 GW. For context, a typical nuke plant is 2 GW while Fukushima at its peak was 4.7 GW

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/new ... akthrough/
If windpower is the solution, HVDC lines are no solution for the times when the winds drop to 50% of historical values for months at a time like they have in Europe these last two summers.

Those lines will help, but they are not a panacea for the lack of dispatchable electricity generation.

ETA: Here is another article on the subject:
Wind Power Engineering wrote:The high-pressure system over Europe which has caused these anomalous conditions is expected to persist until October. These conditions follow another notable ‘wind drought’ across the U.S. in 2015, which had a widespread financial impact.

“The 2015 conditions caused many wind energy investors in the U.S. to think very seriously about how they could diversify their portfolios, not just geographically, but also by technology,” said Dr. Pascal Storck, Director of Renewable Energy, Vaisala. “This new data shows that large-scale anomalies are not a one-time occurrence, and it may be time for the European market to follow suit in thinking about how it can become ‘climate resilient’.”
RegGuheert
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SageBrush
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:58 am

Long(er) scale intermittency is indeed something to solve. Most of the solution is a wider connected grid. Other solutions are installations in non--homogenous climates. Just as a stable and rich environment requires diversity, so does clean energy.

Lastly, (and here I admit to being a tiny minority,) I think NG plants and gas options should be held in reserve through government ownership for corner cases. Their use will not be frequent enough to be profitable without gouging during shortages so public ownership makes sense. This is not so different than the oil reserve deposits that the US holds to smooth over oil shortages in the market.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
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Re: GCC: Harvard team finds large-scale US wind power would cause warming that would take roughly a century to offset

Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:32 pm

SageBrush wrote:Long(er) scale intermittency is indeed something to solve. Most of the solution is a wider connected grid. Other solutions are installations in non--homogenous climates. Just as a stable and rich environment requires diversity, so does clean energy.

Lastly, (and here I admit to being a tiny minority,) I think NG plants and gas options should be held in reserve through government ownership for corner cases. Their use will not be frequent enough to be profitable without gouging during shortages so public ownership makes sense. This is not so different than the oil reserve deposits that the US holds to smooth over oil shortages in the market.

I agree with that, if long term storage via H2, compressed air or what have you doesn't become commercially viable, although saving large hydro for those periods may be a better option, as the ramp rates of hydro are very high. Still, we probably don't have enough hydro storage to cover everything, and building significantly more runs into environmental effects. Ideally, we would have NG with affordable CC&S, but that's not looking too good at the moment.

As for those interconnects, the biggest problem with them in the U.S. is Nimbyism that will retard or prevent their construction (their costs are obviously another major factor). Countries like Germany are much more compact and have existing, robust interconnections. since California has just passed a 100% zero-carbon (note, not 100% Renewables, as the article headline says) mandate for 2045, here's an article discussing some of the issues that will need to be overcome:
California Goes All In -- 100% Renewable Energy By 2045
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/01/california-goes-all-in-100-percent-renewable-energy-by-2045/

Given the diversity of good to excellent zero-carbon resources we've got in state (solar/wind/hydro/geothermal/biomass), this should be easier for us than many other states. We've already exceeded the 33% renewables goal for 2020, and CPUC is forecasting we'll probably reach 50% by 2020.
SB100 requires 50% by 2026, and 60% by 2030. The state requiring most new residential buildings to have PV after Jan. 1st 2020 will help speed things up. For a discussion of the pros and cons of that, see: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/15/17351236/california-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-mandate-energy-experts

I do like his summing up, which matches my own philosophy:
Either way, it’s best not to get too hung up on any particular technology or technique for reducing carbon. There’s no substitute for taking a holistic view of the energy system, balancing its various needs against the various technologies capable of meeting them. Always, it is outcomes that matter.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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