User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:17 am

SageBrush wrote:The northeast can easily be served by a combination of on-shore wind, off-shore wind, demand pricing, hydro, PV, and PV imported from sunnier areas. Oh, and a little battery for grid stability. Each area has its own best combination.
If this problem can be solved so easily and new PV is cheaper than operating coal-fired power plants, then it will happen quickly.

Given that, when do you predict the transition to 100% renewable electricity in the Northeast U.S. will be completed?
A) 1 year from now
B) 5 years from now
C) 10 years from now
D) 20 years from now
E) 50 years from now
F) 100 years from now
G) Never

I will check back in at that time to see if your predictions are anywhere close to reality.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 510
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:34 am

If yoir so smart maybe you can answer me this.
If solar is almost free why does this almost free clean power only make up around 0.22% of total power generation (not installed capacity) in the US?

Must be other disadvantages if it's almost free but it makes up less than 1% of total power generation.

If solar is the answer to everything how much solar power generation capacity do you own?

The nimbys have successfully blocked all but 3 over the water wind proposal for the 25 years. One wind farm was built off RI and is only 30 Mw, not much of a wind farm. Virginia has 2 over the water turbines that just got built, they were talking about building these before I moved there in 2006 those 2 are the entirety of the project. The 3rd project the Fishermans wind farm, its the only one in the US that is going to be a real large scale wind farm.
More may have been approved since then.

Here are some approved wind projects killed by the nimbys:
The Cape(cod) wind project.
Delaware off shore wind
Fishermans wind farm, jersy (I thought this one was canceled, but it seems to have been brought back to life)
Multiple off shore wind proposals put forth by the university of maine when I was living there in the late 1990s and early 2000 and probably more since then, all dead.

How is new England going to switch to off shore wind if they keep killing the off shore wind farm proposals?
The fishermans wind farm could have been completed by now if the developers didn't have nimbys jerking them around.

I like wind power we have hundreds of Mw of capacity going up every year around me.
They had to slow it down for a year or 2 until the transmission capacity could catch up but it's good now.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

SageBrush
Posts: 4024
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:32 am

RegGuheert wrote:
SageBrush wrote:The northeast can easily be served by a combination of on-shore wind, off-shore wind, demand pricing, hydro, PV, and PV imported from sunnier areas. Oh, and a little battery for grid stability. Each area has its own best combination.
If this problem can be solved so easily and new PV is cheaper than operating coal-fired power plants, then it will happen quickly.

My crystal ball is murky when it comes to politics.
As a technical, financial, and environmental question though, the answer is "this is easy, saves money, and is the thing to do to slow down AGW."

The transition to clean energy is slow due to ignorance, stupidity, and reactionary conservatism, not due to merits. Read Oilpan's comments for typical examples of all three. Oh, I forgot to mention: special interests, often fossils but not only.
Last edited by SageBrush on Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 4024
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:36 am

Oilpan4 wrote:If solar is the answer to everything how much solar power generation capacity do you own?

More than I use for my home and two EVs.
I would put up more but I am blocked by my HOA. A bill to allow community solar died in legislative committee this year.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:14 am

SageBrush wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:If solar is the answer to everything how much solar power generation capacity do you own?

More than I use for my home and two EVs.
Same here except I only have one BEV and I heat my home with PV electricity. As I said, it is easy with the magic of net metering. Unfortunately, that says virtually NOTHING about solving the "Nor'easter problem". Neither does your "ignore the real issues" approach to the math.

Case in point: you don't produce more than you use in November, January, February, nor March. And you do not produce as much electricity as you use at night when it is 20 degrees Fahrenheit BELOW ZERO and the wind is blowing 50 MPH (assuming you even heat your home with photovoltaics).

On this forum, Zythryn comes close to the monthly numbers even including heat and electric vehicles in the winter in MN, but even his system does not provide his nighttime loads. He could, but the wear on the batteries would be very costly. And it wouldn't make sense to do that at the low values of PV penetration now on the grid. But that is what is required if we want to actually make such a transition to 100% renewables.
SageBrush wrote:As a technical, financial, and environmental question though, the answer is "this is easy, saves money, and is the thing to do to slow down AGW."
It is not easy. It is not cheap. As a result, it will take a very long time to make such a transition. Unfortunately, simultaneously moving transportation from fossil fuels to electricity will make the transition of electricity generation much more difficult. To me, that looks a bit like Jevon's Paradox in action.

As a result, the global rates of installations of fossil-fueled electricity generation (including actual capacity factors) are mutliples of installations of renewable electricity generation.
SageBrush wrote:The transition to clean energy is slow due to ignorance, stupidity, and reactionary conservatism, not due to merits.
I will grant that many people who have not installed PV on their homes to date have fallen prey to these things.* If you will stay in your home for some time to come, PV is one of the best financial investments you can make today. Compared to a ridiculously overheated market, it seems a no-brainer. Yet people argue the point with me, or even flat out refuse to discuss it. Perhaps we should have a thread just listing the dumb reasons people have given for not installing PV.

OTOH, that has little to do with a transition to 100% renewable electricity generation. It is a complete non sequitur fallacy to say that if it is good for me then it is good for everyone. Not only is that a fallacy, it is also incorrect.

* Don't get me wrong, there are many valid reasons not to, such as:
- I don't have the authority to do that because I rent, etc.
- I live in the woods.
- I am moving next month.
- etc.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
Posts: 4024
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:10 pm

First, a point of clarification: I recently moved from Colorado to NM. I installed a PV system in Colorado that I left in place when I moved. I currently use 100% grid electricity in NM.

Now, about Colorado: my home was served by a local co-op that bought electricity from a wholesaler (Tri-state) that provided mostly coal based electricity to its co-op members. It was increasingly clear to co-ops that TS was charging more for coal based electricity than it could have charged for wind based electricity it could buy on the wholesale market but TS refused to buy the cheaper wind because they owned the coal assets and shutting them down left them vulnerable to changes in debt financing they had taken on through the years.

In a free market, Tri-state would pay for its poor decisions to buy coal assets as recently as 3 years ago by customers leaving for cheaper supplies but the co-ops do not have that choice so coal generation continues. Tri-state's self-interests are quite different than the co-ops themselves, and the consumers the co-ops serve. Consumers continue to buy expensive coal based electricity because they are in a captive market.

What I tend to call 'special interests' is often stranded assets. It is a political question whether a stranded asset of a vendor is a customer's responsibility.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:30 pm

SageBrush wrote:What I tend to call 'special interests' is often stranded assets. It is a political question whether a stranded asset of a vendor is a customer's responsibility.
The issue of stranded assets is an important one. Investments are made that are based on the idea that an asset will pay for its cost over its useful lifetime. But government can rewrite laws that makes it impossible for a utility to ever recover its investment in a power plant. What to do then? In the case of a coal-fired power plant, I'm sure some here would say "Too bad!" But there was a similar case in Germany where the utility was forced to shut down the most efficient natural-gas-powered plant in the entire world because the laws there required it to convert to a peaker plant instead of a baseload plant. Does it make sense to shut down a brand-new, efficient plant in that case? That's not quite so clear.

I am not a fan of the utilities, partly because I don't like them having monopoly power. I would love to see most electricity generation (and storage) moved to the customer side of the system and let the utilities operate as merely a bourse which sets market prices to buy and sell electricity in order to balance the system. (I realize that is roughly what happens today, but I would like to see the transactions happen at a much smaller scale where the homeowner can participate with their own assets in a way which allows them to minimize their costs. (Or maximize their profits. Why shouldn't I be allowed to produce as much electricity as I can sell to the market?)

But while I am not a fan of the utilities, I also find that they are still quite useful to me today. If there is to be a transition of power (no pun intended), I would like it to be orderly. Bankrupting those organizations tomorrow will simply lead to a bailout in which we will pay way more than we would if they continue to operate.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
Posts: 4024
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:57 pm

Regarding utility scale PV capacity factors, this is an informative website:
https://emp.lbl.gov/pv-capacity-factors

Not that it matters that much, since PV costs drop by the year.
The last couple of residential installations I was involved in cost the homeowners 80 cents a watt, and that included pretty expensive inspection fees.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 10295
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:33 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:You may want to explain acronyms like "VR." I'm guessing at that one myself. Variable Return?

Sorry, I assumed all involved here would recognize it. VR = Variable Renewable (as opposed to say Geothermal or Tidal, renewables whose output is predictable years in advance). Just in case, FGD = Flue Gas De-Sulphurization.

RE costs, I've recently been investigating the cost of PV on the property I rent, for my landlord. There's a main house (1 renter), and my studio (formerly a garage) also with just me in it, and a garage in between where the array would go (open rafters so easy install, best exposure). I've been playing around with PVWatts and another online solar estimator before contacting contractors, to see what the numbers should be. Thing is, between us we use so little electricity currently the payback's very long, with estimates of 16-20 years depending on some variables. My landlord's almost 70 and he tells me that his family isn't long-lived, so it's pretty hard to justify such a long break-even period, especially since my city recently changed to a CCA which provides options for 100% zero carbon or 100% renewable electricity - we currently have the former. It would boost the house's value, but as he isn't married and doesn't have kids that's not likely to be an issue for him.

IIRR, average household use in PG&E's service area is around 17kWh/day, but between both residences we average slightly over 5kWh year-round - I'd estimate my own usage averages no more than 1-1.5kWh/day, of which 500Wh is for the (recently replaced) fridge - one of the local libraries loans out Kill-a-Watt meters so I checked. Other than that, 1 light (CF or LED) on at a time and turned off when not in use, a TV (on a switched plugstrip), and a microwave or toaster oven occasionally, plus the shared washer and dryer and a couple of small vampire loads for the answering machine and phone.

December 7 - Jan. 7th's PG&E bill had a Tier 1 allowance of 395.5 kWh, but we only used 171 kWh. The bill was $25.39 to PG&E for transmission etc. , plus another $13.36 to EBCE (the CCA) for electricity. Payback improves somewhat with increased electricity use due to PEV charging, but even then the payback's around a decade. If he were my customer I'd recommend against this based on his situation and the financial issues, and he's not particularly motivated by ideology. I'll probably recommend that he just put in a charging circuit when I get a PEV, which he's agreed to do. He could save a lot more money by improving the efficiency of the NG appliances used for heat and cooking, which I'm going to recommend.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 11962
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:15 pm

I had the gist of it then, just not the exact wording.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Return to “Environmental Issues”