SageBrush
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sat May 04, 2019 6:01 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:The problems for the new plants appear to be political and not technical.
In Trump-land, SC ? In Trump-land, GA ? That is a pathetic argument even by your standards.

The cost is going to go up a lot when batteries are included to enable these cheap intermittent sources to make power 24 hours a day..
Prove it, and provide numbers. Not numbers from your imagination but IRPs from utilities that are installing wind+PV+battery to replace retiring nuclear and expensive fossils. You can start with Xcel and PNM, two utilities that provide the lion's share of electricity in NM.
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Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 9:02 am

So I take it no renewable can be built in 4 years for a few billion dollars that can start producing 5 Tera watt hour per year.

The US went around a decade with out building a commercial power plant. If the US went with out building a wind farm for 10 years the first few wind farms would go way over budget.
There didn't seem to be a problem building nuclear plants through the 1970, 1980s and 1990s. But now there is a problem and proves it's a failure? That's probably the weakest argumentyou have ever provided for anything.

SageBrush wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:The problems for the new plants appear to be political and not technical.
In Trump-land, SC ? In Trump-land, GA ? That is a pathetic argument even by your standards.

The cost is going to go up a lot when batteries are included to enable these cheap intermittent sources to make power 24 hours a day..
Prove it, and provide numbers. Not numbers from your imagination but IRPs from utilities that are installing wind+PV+battery to replace retiring nuclear and expensive fossils. You can start with Xcel and PNM, two utilities that provide the lion's share of electricity in NM.


Right now if tesla made the batteries it would cost about $110,000 per mega watt hour according to the 85 kwh price tesla published to replace that battery.
Tack that on to "cheap solar and wind" to provide 24 hour power and tell me how cheap it is.
Like really tell me. You are obviously the smartest person here by a wide margin. You probably already knew that and the answer.
Last edited by Oilpan4 on Sun May 05, 2019 9:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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WetEV
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 9:16 am

Oilpan4 wrote:Right now if tesla made the batteries it would cost about $110,000 per mega watt hour according to the 85 kwh price tesla published to replace that battery.
Tack that on to "cheap solar and wind" to provide 24 hour power and tell me how cheap it is.


What is usage pattern?

Daily cycling, will be fairly cheap. Cost per kWh delivered = $110/(365 days * 10 year working life) = $0.03 per kWh.

Or less, as working life is probably more like 20 years.

Daily cycling storage combined with some geographic diversity should allow for the USA to get to near 80% renewable power. The last 20% will require new technology or nuclear.
WetEV
#49
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Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 9:27 am

WetEV wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:Right now if tesla made the batteries it would cost about $110,000 per mega watt hour according to the 85 kwh price tesla published to replace that battery.
Tack that on to "cheap solar and wind" to provide 24 hour power and tell me how cheap it is.


What is usage pattern?

Daily cycling, will be fairly cheap. Cost per kWh delivered = $110/(365 days * 10 year working life) = $0.03 per kWh.

Or less, as working life is probably more like 20 years.

Daily cycling storage combined with some geographic diversity should allow for the USA to get to near 80% renewable power. The last 20% will require new technology or nuclear.

Works for me.
I would have to assume the batteries would be used almost daily everywhere.
For battery to be reliable everywhere we would probably need 2 days or more battery capacity because most of the US doesn't have super reliable sun and wind like west texas, and NM.
I'm assuming the current tesla batteries with active thermal management will last at least 10 years before they would need to have some battery capacity added to make up for degradation. Then those oldest batteries would last probably 20 to 25 years before they start failing. As long as the charge to discharge and temperature is maintained for max life.

And then what, in 5 to 10 years the battery price will likely be cut in half?
So it gets even cheaper.
(According to a wired article I read earlier this year)
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Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 1:37 pm

To make a battery power plant for $110,000 per mega watt hour scaled up to let's say provide 400Mw for 20 hours.
We really only want to use 2/3 of the batteries capacity to make that much power and have the battery last over 20 years.
So what we want is to get 8GwH out of this theoretical power plant. We want more like a 12GwH battery.
Thats $1,320,000,000
I'm going to have to say that's a lot of money for a 1 and done until it recharges power plant.
Even when battery prices are cut in half over time, I'm going to have to say that's a lot of money for a 1 and done power plant that will hopefully last 25 years.
I don't think poor NM can afford it.
I'm good with battery power plants as long as I'm not paying for early adopting them.
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SageBrush
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 2:36 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Right now if tesla made the batteries it would cost about $110,000 per mega watt hour according to the 85 kwh price tesla published to replace that battery.

You may as well be quoting the cost of Ben & Jerry's Vanilla ice cream per pint in Manhattan when the question is cost of ice per ton in Norway. Read the IRPs of the main electric utilities of NM. Or read the most recent auctions that Xcel has reported to its PUC of clean energy + storage.

However, $110,000 per MWh is dirt cheap. I doubt if that is the Tesla price. Your calc after that is nonsensical. Utility scale storage in conjunction with clean energy is usually designed as a 4 hour per day back-up and a 10 year operation guarantee. The ~ correct arithmetic would be back-up of 365*24*10** kWh for $440, about 0.5 cents per kWh. You may notice that is ~ the same additional charge that long distance sharing will cost per kWh.

In short -- get a clue

**
365 days in a year
24 hours in a day
10 year performance warranty
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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SageBrush
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Sun May 05, 2019 3:21 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:I'm good with battery power plants as long as I'm not paying for early adopting them.

The price curve has a beginning.

Lucky that some people realize that pollution has a cost.
Lucky that some people realize that AGW is not a Chinese hoax.

Lucky we are all not all Trumpers, Eh ?
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Mon May 06, 2019 10:48 am

SageBrush wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:I'm good with battery power plants as long as I'm not paying for early adopting them.

The price curve has a beginning.

Lucky that some people realize that pollution has a cost.
Lucky that some people realize that AGW is not a Chinese hoax.

Lucky we are all not all Trumpers, Eh ?

The only person saying anything about AGW being a hoax on here is you.
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Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
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Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Mon May 06, 2019 11:05 am

SageBrush wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:Right now if tesla made the batteries it would cost about $110,000 per mega watt hour according to the 85 kwh price tesla published to replace that battery.

You may as well be quoting the cost of Ben & Jerry's Vanilla ice cream per pint in Manhattan when the question is cost of ice per ton in Norway. Read the IRPs of the main electric utilities of NM. Or read the most recent auctions that Xcel has reported to its PUC of clean energy + storage.

However, $110,000 per MWh is dirt cheap. I doubt if that is the Tesla price. Your calc after that is nonsensical. Utility scale storage in conjunction with clean energy is usually designed as a 4 hour per day back-up and a 10 year operation guarantee. The ~ correct arithmetic would be back-up of 365*24*10** kWh for $440, about 0.5 cents per kWh. You may notice that is ~ the same additional charge that long distance sharing will cost per kWh.

In short -- get a clue

**
365 days in a year
24 hours in a day
10 year performance warranty

That's only your delusional green washing.
The cute little 4 hour battery supply will hopefully be able to send out a warning to peoples phones before it goes off line.
Being able to supply my own water and electricity is looking like the more logical option every day.
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Oilpan4
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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Mon May 06, 2019 12:05 pm

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... y-some-evs

Maybe just forget about grid batteries unless some very cheap battery tech made with unlimited common materials comes out and just stick with putting lithium batteries in stuff that moves.

I read a a lot of mining news and it is true mining investments for base metals, precious metals and energy metals over the last 5 or 6 years has not been that great.

Seems I see at least 2 or 3 articles like this per year.
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