Debunking The Lord of Climate Skeptics

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I don't think anyone is denying the facts of less ice, change in sea level and that polar bears are stressed.
Most denyers (including me) don't believe that the climate change is man made.
 
smkettner said:
Most denyers (including me) don't believe that the climate change is man made.
The question then becomes, "Why would you think that you know better than the scientists who have been studying this problem for decades?"
 
smkettner said:
I don't think anyone is denying the facts of less ice, change in sea level and that polar bears are stressed.
Most denyers (including me) don't believe that the climate change is man made.
edit... Sorry - waaaaay too many words. Main point: It's not about 'belief' - it's about science. And here's an example of a joint statement from a world-class scientific body - the American Academy for the Advancement of Science:
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2007/0218am_statement.shtml
/edit

The 'man-made' part is the easiest, I think, even with high-school chemistry. (Or hit a few pages of this freshman college chem text: Chemistry 10th Edition, Chang, ISBN 9780073511092. The author covers the greenhouse effect starting on page 781, for example.)

It's clear that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased about 39% since the industrial revolution. The beauty of chemistry - especially nuclear chemistry - is that modern science can identify isotopes of oxygen. Carbon pulled out of the ground is very ancient. Carbon released by burning a farm field or part of the Amazon is very modern. Scientists can not only measure the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and track the changes, but they can track the age signatures of the carbon to see if it's new or old.

I think that single point - the ability to identify how much of the atmospheric carbon is ancient - is the 'man-made climate forcing/climate destabilization' smoking gun.

It's about science, not belief...

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/bk-1986-0319.ch021
http://geology.com/nasa/human-carbon-dioxide/
http://www.calpoly.edu/~rfield/carboninthegeobiosphere.htm
 
There's no point debating deniers using science - their objection is ideological, not scientific.

I've a simple rule - if Rush Limbaugh is against it, it must be right ;-)
 
As they say denial is not a river in Egypt.

As a chemist/scientist, I found this presentation to be very interesting. Unfortuniately, we live in a sound bite world. As Dr. Morris Massey often said "We have grown up watching the most complex problems solved in one hour with four commercial breaks" Lots of folks are only interested in what is happening locally in their lives. Anything that suggests the possibility of change upsets the norm. Just think about how people often react to increases in the cost of gas. Their first impluse is to demand that someone fix it immediately. It takes work to understand what is happening in our world. The fixes are complex and often involve long term changes. This scares people who are desperately hoping it will all just go away. Thanks for the presentation.

Manny
 
I am OK with the world being a warmer place and all that goes with it. The scientists seem to fear the change and predict a dooms day around every degree of temperature rise.
 
smkettner states:

"I don't think anyone is denying the facts of less ice, change in sea level and that polar bears are stressed.
Most denyers (including me) don't believe that the climate change is man made".

and "I am OK with the world being a warmer place and all that goes with it. The scientists seem to fear the change and predict a dooms day around every degree of temperature rise".



Out of curiosity what motivated you to purchase a Leaf if as you say you have no concerns with climate change and its repercussions?
Manny
 
What I would like to see is a comparative study of the CO2 levels in Antarctic ice samples correlated with events from the same time period. For example, in those past ages where the ice samples show elevated CO2 levels were there large volcanic eruptions, or massive fires, etc.? Then we could compare the current CO2 levels with modern similar events and see if there is any correlation. If it turns out that we have elevated CO2 levels without the corresponding CO2 producing events then that certainly would bolster the position that man-made CO2 is having an effect. Unfortunately, the hard part is that we would only be able to make a correlation since recorded history. There may be a few events that we could correlate with like Krakatoa in 1883 and there may be some others.

I suppose in either event, the world has enough garbage thrown into the air with forest fires and volcanic eruptions that we might say if we have a choice of whether to generate more CO2 or not, why not, not?

Here is a quote from John Hofmeister's book, "Why We Hate the Oil Companies". Hofmeister is former President of Shell Oil North America.
“As the debate rages on, we’re throwing ton after ton of gaseous effluent into the atmosphere and doing little or nothing about it. That’s wrong. It’s wrong for today, tomorrow, and forever. We breathe what we put into the air. It is time to come to grips with gaseous waste in much the same manner that we have tackled other waste problems. If we did not deal with physical waste in the modern age, we’d be suffocated by our own trash. If we did not deal with liquid waste in the modern age, we’d be poisoned by our own filthy water. The fact that we are not dealing adequately with gaseous waste is wrong, wrong, wrong. How strongly can I say it?” (Pg. 65)
 
Apparently we have EXACTLY that type of info, ERG4ALL. In this video clip, for example, shows that they 'align' the ice core data by looking for the markers from large volcanic eruptions and fallout from nuclear tests.

They can also use ice core data from around the world to distinguish the 'local' effects from the global trends.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c90nab5i-TQ[/youtube]
 
smkettner said:
I am OK with the world being a warmer place and all that goes with it. The scientists seem to fear the change and predict a dooms day around every degree of temperature rise.
I suggest reading "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" (978-1426202131).
 
drmanny3 said:
Out of curiosity what motivated you to purchase a Leaf if as you say you have no concerns with climate change and its repercussions?
Manny

Wow, seriously? Do you really think that's the ONLY reason to buy an EV? There are NO other valid reasons why someone would potentially want a Leaf other than trying to help with a climate change problem? That's an even more narrow-minded statement than anything smkettner has said.
 
drmanny3 said:
Out of curiosity what motivated you to purchase a Leaf if as you say you have no concerns with climate change and its repercussions?
Manny
Primarily personal economics.
Secondly I enjoy the drive.
Third to reduce consumption of imported crude oil.
Fourth it would seem to be better for air quality.
Last is to have the carpool stickers... I sent for them but I doubt I will put them on. But maybe.

I really have strong doubts EVs will affect global temperatures either way.
 
smkettner said:
I don't think anyone is denying the facts of less ice, change in sea level and that polar bears are stressed.
Most denyers (including me) don't believe that the climate change is man made.

This speaks very directly to your concern about man-made change, smkettner. And hey - it's only a bit more than a minute.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwpPd_bBMpg[/youtube]
 
smkettner said:
I really have strong doubts EVs will affect global temperatures either way.

I agree with that statement, however I also feel that EVs will help drive different types of technologies that will eventually work their way into larger systems and associated problems, and eventually could lead to help a lot of climate problems.

Basically I see it as a very small step in a very long journey.
 
smkettner said:
I really have strong doubts EVs will affect global temperatures either way.
I'm forced to agree. Not because I don't trust climate science, but because some idiot somewhere on this planet is going to pump and burn any oil that we manage to save. The best I'm able to hope for is having EV tech ready when peak oil finally chokes off the supply, and renewable electricity generation for the time we finally manage to stop the rapers from leveling mountains to extract coal. We're going to need electric transportation, electric shipping, electric farm equipment, lots of battery powered stuff we don't have...which means adopting it now. I just hope the planet is still livable when we achieve it.
 
At this point I'm more concerned about the inflection points, causing runaway climate events, rather than the settled science that humans are causing global climate change. For example, melting Arctic permafrost will set up a positive feedback system where significant amounts of additional carbon and methane are released into the atmosphere in a relatively short amount of time. Once that chain reaction begins, there's nothing we can do but let it play out. It's like a wildfire that burns and spreads until it exhausts its fuel source.
 
While I feel exactly the same way as you do about that drug-addict idiot, your sentence shows the problem we face.
We've become an extremely polarized society where the 2 sides deeply mistrust each other.
All our fellow Americans who are on the other side of the political spectrum are in denial about climate change mostly because it comes from groups (the left, scientists) who they instinctively mistrust (in the same way we mistrust Rush).
The fact that we happen to be right, doesn't change the fact that the other side need to be convinced as well.

evnow said:
There's no point debating deniers using science - their objection is ideological, not scientific.

I've a simple rule - if Rush Limbaugh is against it, it must be right ;-)
 
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