mitch672 wrote: There ARE bright people on this problem, the plan is to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to EVs by 2040, see this link, and the 180 page report...
This is my last comment on PO in this thread. Don't want to side track it even more.
We needed to have done something by now. Not 30 years from now. Just too late. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. It examined the time frame for the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.
Here is the important thing ...
"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
- Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
- Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.