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evnow
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 12:30 pm

garygid wrote:Or, grow and make things locally. When it costs $200 to make something and $800 to ship it ... ?


Thats the basis of this book by Jeff Rubin, former CIBC chief economist. He was also the first to predict $50 and $100 oil prices.

"Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization"

http://www.jeffrubinssmallerworld.com/

Here is a good source for anyone new to Peak Oil.

http://www.peakoil.net/about-peak-oil
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
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KarenRei
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 4:17 pm

I'll stay out of this one. ;) I have stuff to get done. ;)

AndyH
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Location: San Antonio

Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 4:44 pm

http://www.theintelligentcommunity.com/

You might enjoy the opening video this group has published: "The Intelligent Community
Video Overview of the Peak Oil Crisis"

Andy

mitch672
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 5:00 pm

garygid wrote:Assuming you are correct, then the free-market for oil is "broken", and other methods of regulation will be tried (like paying a tax credit to buy an EV).

Before too-highly priced oil is allowed to "paralyse" the nation or world, I hope some bright people will provide other solutions.

Perhaps only commercial uses, huge taxes on private use, large taxes on all oil-based uses, and building trains, etc. to move things around.

Or, grow and make things locally. When it costs $200 to make something and $800 to ship it ... ?

Sounds like an expansion-based (growth-based) economy might be ready for a replacement?


There ARE bright people on this problem, the plan is to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to EVs by 2040, see this link, and the 180 page report... BTW, Nissan, Tesla, and many other EV, Technology, Utilities and other industry leaders are on the board of directors, and it does look like the US Government has taken them seriously, as many of the "recomendations" in the report are being implemented, such as the $7500 federal tax credit, deploying public ev charging infrastructure etc.

http://www.electrificationcoalition.org ... oadmap.php
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evnow
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 5:14 pm

mitch672 wrote: There ARE bright people on this problem, the plan is to convert %75 of the US Light duty fleet to EVs by 2040, see this link, and the 180 page report...


This is my last comment on PO in this thread. Don't want to side track it even more.

We needed to have done something by now. Not 30 years from now. Just too late.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. It examined the time frame for the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.


Here is the important thing ...

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
...
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
- Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
- Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
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mitch672
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 5:23 pm

evnow, if you take the time to read the report we ARE doing something now, but replacing %75 of the light duty fleet CANNOT be acomplished overnight, the report outlines a realistic and achievable plan for how to get the US light duty fleet OFF gasoline, and onto electrically powered vehicles. It won't happen overnight, it will take YEARS, and there is no easy way to speed it up, because of the lifecycle of cars and how often people replace them, and also acceptance of EVs by the general public. Read the report, or browse through it, you will see there IS a plan, and it IS being executed, finally.
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evnow
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:38 pm

mitch672 wrote:evnow, if you take the time to read the report ....


I've had it on my desktop for months. I quote from it frequently.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
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mitch672
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Re: 0 - 60

Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:08 pm

ok, well to me it looks like a workable plan, and it may be sped it up by a huge spike in oil prices or a shortage. It's just too bad it wasn't started in the late 1990's/early 2000's, with the EV1, RAV4EV, Solectra, and all of the other EVs that have come before. It shows we have to be on the brink of a serious crisis to start implementing a solution that should have had much more progress by now, we could have been 10 years into that 30 year plan by now. I guess it didn't help with bigoil getting control of the battery patent and shutting down the large format battery line.. wow, really veered off topic on this, back to the 0 to 60 discussion :)
2012 Advanced Plug in Prius (sold)
I Support OpenEVSE: http://code.google.com/p/open-evse/
My Fuelly page: http://www.fuelly.com/driver/mitch672/prius-plugin
Tesla Model S 85KW Dolphin Grey VIN: 03245, delivered 1/17/2013

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