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OrientExpress
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:11 am

But the Bolt is overpriced, and it's dismal sales record proves that. Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

Again Nissan understands the price sensitivity of the low end of the market which is why they configured the current LEAF that both appeals to the typical EV buyer, and makes them money at the same time. In the next 12 months they will have a 225+ mile offering that will be a great value for a long-range EV, but will keep the mid-range offering as the low-price leader.
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:33 am

If I am decoding people like DaveinOly correctly, they are interested in the 2018 LEAF if it costs them under $10k for a 3 year lease. Since Nissan dumps the end of leases on the auction market for around $7k, your grand design for Nissan and its EVs only makes sense if Nissan is profitable at a retail cost of under $17k a car. That is almost certainly not the case.. Even when Nissan keeps the federal tax credit, the arithmetic is no where near obvious.. It depends on the ZEV credit value
Last edited by SageBrush on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:36 am

OrientExpress wrote:But the Bolt is overpriced, and it's dismal sales record proves that.


I respectfully disagree on both points. The Bolt has a 60kWh battery. That's usable, not total like Nissan advertises. Total is probably 65-70kWh. Where else can you find an EV with that size battery starting at this low of a price? You simply can't. If battery range is what you need (and for many of us it is), the Bolt is quite the deal!

OrientExpress wrote:Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.


IF this is true (neither of us are in a position to know), then it flies in the face of your first claim. Buying a car for less than it costs to build is an incredible deal!

As for "dismal" sales? The numbers are right in line with the 20-25k GM intended to sell in the first year. IMO, the numbers are much more a function of GM's desire to market and actually sell the car.

Year-to-date, it is only exceeded by the Model S. If anything, Nissan's sales are "dismal" for 2017.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

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Nubo
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:21 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Nubo wrote:One thing that gives me pause about an early 2018 LEAF reservation/purchase is the growing feeling that the car isn't going to be well-received by the market; primarily because 200 miles range has become established in the public psyche as the new bar. I'm fine with 150 but I've got a feeling Nissan is going to be incentivizing like crazy to bridge the gap to 2019 when they can compete on specs. Even more so if the tax credit fades.

Though it would be inconvenient I might just turn in my lease in March and take a few months to see how things pan out. Interesting times.


A valid concern... BUT

we already know that Nissan has been discounting LEAFs heavily for a long time and the market suggests that that will continue especially in the face of real competition. The more discounted Bolts become, the lower the LEAF will be. I am guessing come Jan, Bolts will be right back up to their $36-42 K range all in.

Your lease ends in March, you are aware you can extend that right? or is that no longer available (I would consider that unlikely)


The lease originally was to end in November, but I signed up for the 2018 LEAF extension program with several free months. Not sure if any extension beyond that date can be arranged if I'm not agreeing to buy a 2018 LEAF. Haven't asked yet.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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OrientExpress
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:05 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:I respectfully disagree on both points.


I can understand why you disagree. I don't get the sense that you understand the EV market from a manufacturer's perspective.

GetOffYourGas wrote:The Bolt has a 60kWh battery.


So what? It could have a jillion kWh battery, but if you can't sell it at a price that makes you a profit, then you have to sell it at a loss. That is the crux of GM's dilemma, they thought that the market for entry level EVs was range sensitive ("give them 200+ range and they will be standing in line for you to take their money"), when it is not, it is price sensitive, always has been.

But nevertheless, GM flooded the market with $42K+ 200+ mile cars that were simply too expensive for their target market. At one point this summer, GM had over 200 days worth of Bolt inventory gathering dust on dealers lots. So they were forced to do what any good marketeer does with distressed merchandise, you fire sale the hell out of it to move it off the lot and take the loss. Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

GetOffYourGas wrote:IF this is true (neither of us are in a position to know), then it flies in the face of your first claim. Buying a car for less than it costs to build is an incredible deal!


GM has to incentivise their Bolt in some markets by $6K and sell it at a loss to make their sales goal, balance their inventory, but in the process they will continue to lose a significant amount of money on each Bolt sold. They realize that their product is overpriced, and are working to cost reduce it, but for most of 2018 they will still be selling the car at a loss. GM knows they have to be in this segment and are willing to take the profit hit in order to gain market share.

But to your point that as a consumer, it is a good deal, sure it is, if 200+ miles of range in an otherwise marginal platform is the only criteria.

The Nissan LEAF is still the best selling EV world-wide, and there are still more LEAFs on the road globally than any other marque. One of the reasons for that is its balance of all of the things that make owning and driving an EV a positive and inexpensive experience. It is also a vehicle that achieves that while allowing Nissan to make an acceptable profit on. It is a win for the consumer and it is a win for the manufacturer.

Lastly for 2017, the transition to the new LEAF was planned the way it is, and Nissan is content with it.
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

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TomT
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:57 pm

That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 wrote:Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.
59,991 miles/12 bars/289 Gids/68.54 AHr/101% SOH/101.64% Hx 7May15 w/ new Lizard (barely made the warranty).
71,770 miles/12 bars/256 Gids/59.04 AHr/88% SOH/87.92% Hx 3Mar16 at lease return.

Now driving a 2016 Volt Premier. Model 3 configured.

powersurge
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:53 am

TomT wrote:That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 wrote:Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.


It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...

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OrientExpress
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Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:58 am

Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year. It's all about the best car for the price.

Image
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1691
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:01 am

powersurge wrote:
TomT wrote:That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 wrote:Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.


It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...


I would take that bet. Tesla will most likely deliver the Model 3. It may take a few years to get through the reservations, but they will do it.

It will cost more than the Bolt (actual purchase price - Tesla doesn't offer discounts off MSRP like most OEMs do), and much more than the Leaf.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

SageBrush
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:17 am

OrientExpress wrote:Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year.

Set the 2018 LEAF to 100 miles range to account for expected battery degradation.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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