WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:58 am

SageBrush wrote:
jonathanfields4ever wrote:I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS.

If I am, then so is Tesla. Do you have that much insight into battery longevity, that you know what Tesla does not ?


Battery chemistries are not all the same. Some need and can thrive at higher temperatures, some need and can thrive at lower temperatures.

For a commuter car, a wide temperature range battery that doesn't need a TMS would be the cheapest, lowest maintainance and most reliable solution. The Leaf with the 24kWh "lizard battery" is fairly close to this, with great results in cool places and OK results in hotter places.

For a performance car, a TMS is a requirement. Any non-actively cooled battery would either limit performance or melt. Both of which are unacceptable for something like a Tesla S/X/3/Y.

Nissan and Tesla are designing for different requirements. Are you interested in cheap and reliable, or in performance?

Nissan is making money on the Leaf. Tesla is making money on the S and X, and burning cash by the millions to try to start production of the 3.

If I had to bet on which automaker will be around in 10 years or 20 years, I'd bet on Nissan.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:05 am

WetEV wrote:and OK results in hotter places.

ROFL
Buddy, you are in serious denial.

Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years. Nissan takes it on chin in order to meet CARB ZEV requirements so they can sell truck stinkers. Absent the ZEV quota, there would be no LEAF in the US. You doubt me ? Watch lease offers in H2 of 2018 after Nissan finishes mopping up the few thousand people willing to pay ~ MSRP. The Bolt is the same story.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:41 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
jonathanfields4ever wrote:I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS.

If I am, then so is Tesla. Do you have that much insight into battery longevity, that you know what Tesla does not ?


Battery chemistries are not all the same. Some need and can thrive at higher temperatures, some need and can thrive at lower temperatures.

For a commuter car, a wide temperature range battery that doesn't need a TMS would be the cheapest, lowest maintainance and most reliable solution. The Leaf with the 24kWh "lizard battery" is fairly close to this, with great results in cool places and OK results in hotter places.

For a performance car, a TMS is a requirement. Any non-actively cooled battery would either limit performance or melt. Both of which are unacceptable for something like a Tesla S/X/3/Y.

Nissan and Tesla are designing for different requirements. Are you interested in cheap and reliable, or in performance?

Nissan is making money on the Leaf. Tesla is making money on the S and X, and burning cash by the millions to try to start production of the 3.

If I had to bet on which automaker will be around in 10 years or 20 years, I'd bet on Nissan.


Good summary!

Can you imagine what the EPA mileage rating would have been on the Gen 1 Leaf with TMS? Given battery technology, battery costs,
and Leaf's targeted selling price to achieve the desired market share when Gen 1 was developed, Nissan had little choice but to not
include TMS.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:38 am

SageBrush wrote:Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years.


Yawn.

Nissan has a sales strategy of set the MSRP high, and discount significantly as needed to sell cars. So ignoring this, and the assorted tax rebates, you come up with a high depreciation percentage. Proves nothing technical.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:59 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years.


Nissan has a sales strategy of set the MSRP high, and discount significantly as needed to sell cars. So ignoring this, and the assorted tax rebates, you come up with a high depreciation percentage.


You are having trouble with arithmetic. Let me help you out

MSRP: 32k
Auction purchase price: 6k
Fed tax credit from lease to Nissan: 7.5K

1 - (6+7.5)/32 = 0.58 depreciation.

Or let's calculate break-even manufacturing cost for Nissan:
10k lease income
6k after-lease sale
7.5k tax rebate
----
23.5k income from each car.

Clearly Nissan is manufacturing each car at a loss. The only way this pens out is the ~ 10k or so than Nissan "saves" by not having to pay the ZEV penalty, and when the Fed tax credit goes, so does Nissan's business model.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:11 pm

WetEV wrote:Are you interested in cheap and reliable

Yes, which is why a LEAF is a terrible buy until market depreciation has improved the car value.

Face facts, the LEAF amortizes out over 8-10 years AT BEST*.

You are paying about $266 a month for a commuter car that cannot be counted on to have more than a ~ 35 mile** driving radius.
Cheap ?!? Only if you pay in Pesos.

*Not really though, because a battery replacement is involved to reach those ~ 10 years and the degraded performance during the ownership period has to be considered. A conservative analysis would say that the LEAF is no better than its performance at its worse, just before battery replacement. Since that is about 0.6 of new, you are talking about $32k for a 40*0.6 = 24 kWh range for 8 - 10 years.


** Based on peak battery degradation before replacement, 30% range penalty for bad weather, and no destination or in-route charging.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:42 pm

SageBrush wrote:...Face facts, the LEAF amortizes out over 8-10 years AT BEST*.

You are paying about $266 a month for a commuter car that cannot be counted on to have more than a ~ 35 mile** driving radius.
Cheap ?!? Only if you pay in Pesos.

*Not really though, because a battery replacement is involved to reach those ~ 10 years and the degraded performance during the ownership period has to be considered. A conservative analysis would say that the LEAF is no better than its performance at its worse, just before battery replacement. Since that is about 0.6 of new, you are talking about $32k for a 40*0.6 = 24 kWh range for 8 - 10 years.


** Based on peak battery degradation before replacement, 30% range penalty for bad weather, and no destination or in-route charging.

Thanks for the Sunday morning humor.

But it would be even funnier if you were to apply your imaginary analysis to the imaginary BEV in your thread title, the Tesla Model 3 SR...
no condition is permanent

WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:52 pm

SageBrush wrote:6k after-lease sale


viewtopic.php?f=23&t=19362&start=180#p496457

Looks like 7k would be closer.

And MSRP is a fiction, most of the time. Yes, the first car off the first truck might sell for that. After that...

Buying for 6k below MSRP Out The Door or including all of the fees and such is perhaps more common. Or, at least that is about what I've done. And I've seen Leafs bought for less. For amusement:

http://www.9news.com/article/money/how- ... -439975511

Oh, and state incentives need to be accounted for as well. $5,000 in Colorado, correct?

1-(7.5k+5k+7k)/26k = 25% depreciation.

Or 39% depreciation if you start with the fictional MSRP.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:49 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:6k after-lease sale


1-(7.5k+5k+7k)/26k = 25% depreciation.

Or 39% depreciation if you start with the fictional MSRP.

Depreciation is not calculated your way, and here is one example why:

My Prius Prime MSRP was $27.1k
I paid 25.k before a $4.5 Fed tax credit and $5k Colo tax credit
Current used prices on retail market are 22k in CA
According to you depreciation calc:

1 - (4.5+22+5)25.5
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Zythryn
Posts: 1066
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:16 am

The implementation of a passive battery management system is questionable, at best.
2011-2012 Leafs in warm climates had horrible results. Even in cold climates, they haven’t been very good.

When the 2011s came out Nissan SAID the batteries had undergone extensive testing in hot weather environments and would be fine.
That turned out not to be the case.

The ‘warm weather’ batteries, from reports, seem to have done better, but still not as good as batteries with active battery management systems.

From what I have heard, the 2019 Leaf will have a larger battery and an active battery management system.
I don’t see how people can argue for a passive system. Unless they believe in 3-5 year disposable cars.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

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