WetEV
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Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:47 am

lorenfb wrote:Have you forgotten that the M3 was to be the needed "turn-around" vehicle that would save Telsa from Chapter 7?


Amusing and backwards. Model S and X are profitable, and Tesla is betting the company on the Model 3 production ramp up.

So far, Tesla hasn't won or lost this bet. Not looking great, however.


[quote="lorenfb"]the MS & MX do not produce profits for Tesla.]/quote]

Really. Based on what? Cost of production higher than selling price? No. Then what? (2017)

Sales = $11.76B
Cost of goods sold = $9.51B

Tesla lost money because of:

SG&A Expense = $3.85B

At least twice what it would be without the Model 3 development. Tesla could have been profitable, without the Model 3 bet. And some of the cost of goods sold is likely from the Model 3.

Remember I'm not a Tesla stock fan, but for reasons that I think are supportable. Even if Tesla wins the Model 3 production ramp up bet, Tesla is still a tiny fish in a pond full of whales. I'm not going to short sell the stock, the market can be irrational longer than I can be solvent.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:59 am

WetEV wrote:Tesla lost money because of:

SG&A Expense = $3.85B

At least twice what it would be without the Model 3 development. Tesla could have been profitable, without the Model 3 bet. And some of the cost of goods sold is likely from the Model 3.


Thanks for the added info to support what was posted, i.e. Tesla is presently unprofitable!
And yes, the M3 is a bet! By the way, SG&A doesn't pay for M3 development, R&D does, which is NOT part of a vehicle's gross profit.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

SageBrush
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Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:47 am

Of course Tesla in unprofitable. Just look at what they have built in the last year or so:
A Gigafactory !!
A completely re-tooled car factory
A rapidly expanding SuperCharger network
R&D of an electric Semi and the Model Y

They are poring every penny of profit (and more) into growth.

Amazon has done the same, for years.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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EVDRIVER
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Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:33 pm

SageBrush wrote:Of course Tesla in unprofitable. Just look at what they have built in the last year or so:
A Gigafactory !!
A completely re-tooled car factory
A rapidly expanding SuperCharger network
R&D of an electric Semi and the Model Y

They are poring every penny of profit (and more) into growth.

Amazon has done the same, for years.



Don't bother with Lorenfb , he is here only to troll Tesla and astroturf.

SageBrush
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
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Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:41 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:Don't bother with Lorenfb , he is here only to troll Tesla and astroturf.


For giggles, here is Amazon over the years.
Perhaps Lorenfb can head over there and troll

Image
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:33 pm

SageBrush wrote:Of course Tesla in unprofitable.


So you agree too! Great, now more on MNL are starting to understand basic accounting and that huge continued losses, e.g. $20K per vehicle
at Tesla in 2017, have an end point called Chapter 7 of the Federal Bankruptcy Laws.

Again, we have the naive comparing Tesla to Amazon. Laughable!
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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EVDRIVER
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Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:44 pm

We know your position now go peddle to your friends that care.

WetEV
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Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:55 am

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote:At least twice what it would be without the Model 3 development. Tesla could have been profitable, without the Model 3 bet. And some of the cost of goods sold is likely from the Model 3.


Thanks for the added info to support what was posted, i.e. Tesla is presently unprofitable!
And yes, the M3 is a bet! By the way, SG&A doesn't pay for M3 development, R&D does, which is NOT part of a vehicle's gross profit.


Tesla is unprofitable because of investing in rapid growth. What pays for SuperCharger sites to support the Model 3 role out? SG&A

Tesla could be profitable, if Tesla was willing to "settle" for 20% or so growth per year. However, that wouldn't support the current valuation on the stock.

The problem is that there are probably more "bet the company" events in the future. For Tesla's stock valuation, Tesla has to win them all.

The Model S almost killed Tesla, before saving it.

The Model 3 may kill Tesla. Or save it again.

And so on.

If you want to be a Tesla bear, please get it correct. Don't annoy with false reasons to not buy and/or short Tesla stock. There are plenty of real reasons.

(Edit. I removed the spaces added to avoid annoying hyperlinks to improve readability. Then forgot to remove the note.)
Last edited by WetEV on Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:10 am

lorenfb wrote:huge continued losses, e.g. $20K per vehicle


Dividing apples by oranges.

Tesla makes Model S cars at a profit. Model X as well.

Model 3? Ah, yes. Like every other car ever made in modern times, the first real production car probably lost a lot more than $20k each. And there will be some volume of Model 3 production that will have an average loss of $20k per car. And a larger volume where Tesla just breaks even. Beyond that, Tesla will be making money on Model 3s. Assume that Tesla lives long enough, of course.

Tesla is losing money because trying for explosive growth. Explosive growth can be wonderful, but explosions can also end up with a pile of rubble. (Sorry for the bad metaphor.) This is a high wire act with no net. (Ok, also a bad metaphor.) And the stock is priced like Tesla is going to succeed.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
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Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:52 pm

WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:huge continued losses, e.g. $20K per vehicle


Dividing apples by oranges.


No! Please try to understand basic accounting and do simple math;

2017 GAAP loss - $2B (2 x 10^9)
2017 vehicles sold - 100K (10^5)
Loss per vehicle = $2 x 10^9 / 10^5 = $2 x 10^4 = $20,000/vehicle sold

WetEV wrote:Tesla makes Model S cars at a profit. Model X as well.


No again! Remember SG&A + R&D costs MUST be paid for, and each vehicle sold is "burdened" with those costs.

WetEV wrote:Model 3? Ah, yes. Like every other car ever made in modern times, the first real production car probably lost a lot more than $20k each. And there will be some volume of Model 3 production that will have an average loss of $20k per car. And a larger volume where Tesla just breaks even. Beyond that, Tesla will be making money on Model 3s. Assume that Tesla lives long enough, of course.


Your guess like many others!
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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