LeftieBiker
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Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
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Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:28 pm

I've been following this issue, including that piece. Unfortunately, some Leaf owners who have had the update applied have NOT seen a corresponding increase in actual range. It appears to me at this point that some cars have a defect that is correctable by this update, and that others have excessive degradation that the update does NOT correct. For this reason I continue to regard the 30kwh pack as problematic. It appears to be a bit of a crap shoot if you buy a car that has one.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

HornsKeith
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:24 pm
Delivery Date: 06 Mar 2016
Location: Hampton Roads, VA

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:19 pm

Dooglas wrote:
leafygood wrote:When we start working with the dealerships on purchasing, what is a good ball park we should aim for based on the above information?

I think you will find zero flexibility in the cost of buyout at end of lease, when you begin "working with dealerships". There is a residual figure in your contract, and a buyout fee. NMAC is offering no buyout promotions at this time and there is no money in it for the dealership that would cause them to subsidize your buyout. About the only other thing to discuss is any additional fees including title transfer, registration, document fees, etc.


So is it confirmed that all the gross payoff amount discounts are totally gone? Our 2015 SV lease is up next month, so that'd be lousy timing if so. At that point, it'll be a binary choice of either buying the car for the residual plus the usual fees or just turning it in. Hmmmm....

Keith
2015 Leaf SV w/ premium

LeftieBiker
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Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:44 pm

So is it confirmed that all the gross payoff amount discounts are totally gone?


Only the dealerships know for sure. They get a "matrix" that shows any NMAC discounts for trim and mileage at the beginning of every month, but very, very few will even admit that it exists. You'd have to find the exceedingly rare dealership that will show you one, because all negotiation on buyout is done exclusively with the dealers, now.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Dooglas
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:27 pm

HornsKeith wrote:So is it confirmed that all the gross payoff amount discounts are totally gone? Our 2015 SV lease is up next month, so that'd be lousy timing if so. At that point, it'll be a binary choice of either buying the car for the residual plus the usual fees or just turning it in. Hmmmm....

So, go talk to a dealer about a buyout. You'll find out soon enough. NMAC suggests you make an inspection appointment 2 months in advance of end-of-lease so you should get on with finding out what is actually within the realm of the possible. As I commented, don't be disappointed if the dealer offers next to nothing in the way of incentives. And report back how it goes.
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30 - purchased

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13867
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:39 am

LeftieBiker wrote:I've been following this issue, including that piece. Unfortunately, some Leaf owners who have had the update applied have NOT seen a corresponding increase in actual range. It appears to me at this point that some cars have a defect that is correctable by this update, and that others have excessive degradation that the update does NOT correct. For this reason I continue to regard the 30kwh pack as problematic. It appears to be a bit of a crap shoot if you buy a car that has one.


The variability of the results is quite the norm it would seem. I think we need to look at data from people who had both the 24 kwh and 30 kwh packs and experienced no or very little change in driving patterns.

In my experience, my 30 kwh LEAF greatly outperformed my two 24 kwh packs by quite a wide margin and did so under much more extreme conditions. (Keeping in mind, I did not have NCTC on either 24 kwh LEAFs so fast charging was done but not relied on nearly as much)

Now, its hard to make any definitive statements due to the short 14 months I had the 30 kwh LEAF but I did do 116.2 miles on a single charge IN JANUARY 8 days before she was killed. So LEAF Spy stats be damned, I still contend the pack lost no more than "maybe" 1-2% in just under 30,000 miles and 280 QCs.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LeftieBiker
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Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:12 pm

You live in one of the mildest climates in the country. My guess - and it is only a guess, at the moment - is that the 30kwh pack, even if it does use the Lizard chemistry, suffers from heat-induced degradation more because of the more densely-packed cells. So it may be that people in milder climates can get a great deal on a 30kwh Leaf by getting one with lost bars and then having the update applied. I'm not going to tell anyone to do that, though, because of the possibility that the update won't fix their particular car.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13867
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:35 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:You live in one of the mildest climates in the country. My guess - and it is only a guess, at the moment - is that the 30kwh pack, even if it does use the Lizard chemistry, suffers from heat-induced degradation more because of the more densely-packed cells. So it may be that people in milder climates can get a great deal on a 30kwh Leaf by getting one with lost bars and then having the update applied. I'm not going to tell anyone to do that, though, because of the possibility that the update won't fix their particular car.


all 3 of my LEAFs lived in the same mild climate and there is no question that my 2016 LEAF suffered thru a LOT more heat. My 2011 iirc never saw more than 7 TBs. My 2013 only saw 8 TBs or more on a few extended trips. Contrast that to my 2016 that spent nearly EVERY day in Summer at 8 TBs or more.

But who knows what might have happened at 40,000 miles or a 2nd Summer, right? One thought could be the fact that the 24 kwh LEAFs were charged to 100% almost daily while the 2016 was charged to 100% only occasionally. After all, it would be tough to evaluate the effects of multiple daily QCs if I was always leaving home with a full battery.

For reference degradation on 2011; about 12%, my 2013; 9%, my 2016? 2% "maybe"...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dooglas
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:48 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:My guess - and it is only a guess, at the moment - is that the 30kwh pack, even if it does use the Lizard chemistry, suffers from heat-induced degradation more because of the more densely-packed cells.

If this speculation were true, wouldn't the effect be even more pronounced with the 40 kwh pack?
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30 - purchased

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 12183
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Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:22 pm

Dooglas wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:My guess - and it is only a guess, at the moment - is that the 30kwh pack, even if it does use the Lizard chemistry, suffers from heat-induced degradation more because of the more densely-packed cells.

If this speculation were true, wouldn't the effect be even more pronounced with the 40 kwh pack?


If everything were identical, yes. As I understand it, the 40kwh pack uses a slightly different chemistry. Not more heat-tolerant, but not identical. That means we have to wait and see. I think my BMS has stopped updating SOH as of December, so I get to wait for Spring...
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13867
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: End of Lease Strategies?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:56 am

Dooglas wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:My guess - and it is only a guess, at the moment - is that the 30kwh pack, even if it does use the Lizard chemistry, suffers from heat-induced degradation more because of the more densely-packed cells.

If this speculation were true, wouldn't the effect be even more pronounced with the 40 kwh pack?


Yes if we ignore

A much more conservative fast charge profile
A different chemistry
A different BMS/LBC profile

Truth be told; the only thing that is common to the two packs is the nameplate.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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