Wholesale value of the 2013 Leaf @Auction-March '18

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OrientExpress

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Joined
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Location
San Jose, Ca
By Popular Demand, I am adding a new Dealer Wholesale Auction tracking thread for the 2013 LEAF SL. These reports are actual wholesale transactions at auction nationally for the 2013 LEAF SL.

Here is the first one for week ending March 5th 2015.

2013_LEAF_SL_Wholesale_3-10-15.jpg


Enjoy.
 
Really great post.

Thanks for putting it up.

(I was told by someone who knows about these "things" that when the car is turned in after the lease has expired, that Nissan looses about 7 K on each one.)
 
greengate said:
(I was told by someone who knows about these "things" that when the car is turned in after the lease has expired, that Nissan looses about 7 K on each one.)

I've been curious about that. The Wall Street Journal just cited a dealership near me that is receiving 100-150 Leafs each month as leases expire and has to turn in most of the cars to Nissan, even though Nissan offers current lessees $4,000 in incentives to buy the used model they are driving.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/resale-prices-tumble-on-electric-cars-1424977378" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
This bodes well for me because it sounds like Nissan would take a massive hit in 2017 when I would turn in my 13 considering they are already going for less than my residual. Maybe I will get a hefty discount in which case I would probably keep it.
 
greengate said:
Really great post.

Thanks for putting it up.

(I was told by someone who knows about these "things" that when the car is turned in after the lease has expired, that Nissan looses about 7 K on each one.)
I've never seen a lease to sell vehicle price $7k under market value, especially considering that each lease vehicle has earned Nissan $7,500 to $10,000 in tax breaks along with other state incentives. If you Lease a 2015 right now, say full retail price is $30k, Nissan will get at least $7,500 back from the government, so really the vehicle price is $22,500 and after a 2 year lease they make another $9k (more if you get a 3 year lease). So after a few years, they get a vehicle back with usually very low mileage and a good maintenance record (as required by the lease) and then turn around and sell the vehicle as used or certified (or lease again) which either makes more money from the lease or sells at market value which they still make some profit from.

Now, throw in the financing charges and bank deals and Nissan is making money the entire time. Maybe not as much as the ICE vehicles, but I don't see where they would lose $7k every time.
 
mn4az said:
Noob question: How do I read that graphic? Is it saying that a '13 Leaf with 24K miles is going for about $12.7K

In this report the SALE PRICE is what dealers (not retail buyers) are buying these vehicles at WHOLESALE. On top of that price, a dealer also pays an auction commission of about $500. The report judges car as Above average, Average, or Below average.

These are generally not what a retail customer would pay, but rather a wholesale cost to the dealer.

In the second block is an estimated retail for that vehicle based on actuals and condition. The spread between Auction+fees+reconditioning - Est. retail is the spread the dealer has to work with to make their profit.

This report is a national report averaging prices. West Coast auctions generally sell cars for a higher price than central or east coast auctions.

2013_LEAF_SL_Wholesale_3-10-15.jpg
 
OrientExpress said:
By Popular Demand, I am adding a new Dealer Wholesale Auction tracking thread for the 2013 LEAF SL. ...
Enjoy.
Thank you very much :!: :D
Your auction price postings are very valuable to the LEAF community :!:
 
knightmb said:
...I've never seen a lease to sell vehicle price $7k under market value, especially considering that each lease vehicle has earned Nissan $7,500 to $10,000 in tax breaks along with other state incentives. If you Lease a 2015 right now, say full retail price is $30k, Nissan will get at least $7,500 back from the government, so really the vehicle price is $22,500 and after a 2 year lease they make another $9k (more if you get a 3 year lease).
... I don't see where they would lose $7k every time.
The cost of the lease is based on end of lease value versus their cost, which is price minus the government subsidies.
Based on wholesale prices they have been losing lots of $.
Will lose less $ on the later models because they lowered the residual estimates (ttherefore raised the lease cost).

Surely you don't think the government subsidy a purchaser gets is real profit for Nisssn?
The LEAF will lose $ on everyone they sell or lease for another five years or more.
 
TimLee said:
The cost of the lease is based on end of lease value versus their cost, which is price minus the government subsidies.
Based on wholesale prices they have been losing lots of $.
Will lose less $ on the later models because they lowered the residual estimates (ttherefore raised the lease cost).

Surely you don't think the government subsidy a purchaser gets is real profit for Nisssn?
The LEAF will lose $ on everyone they sell or lease for another five years or more.
Help me understand where the $7k loss is coming from then.

The dealership I talked to only subtracted the lease payments from the payout value (2 or 3 years later depending on which you choose) and thus a new 2015 Leaf with a $350 / Mo lease payment for 3 years ($12,600 paid in after 3 years), the residual value for purchase was still going to be $15,000 for just the S base model. So Nissan takes the $7,500 tax credit (which they can actually use, I sure can't), plus the $12,600 I would have given them for the 3 year lease, so they have made $20k from my lease and then sell the vehicle for $15k, so it the dealership just made $35k if I bought the vehicle after 3 years for a $30k retail vehicle.

Maybe my confusion is that Nissan takes the tax credit and the dealership is making the extra money at the end of the lease, but the Dealership still had to purchase the vehicle from Nissan (probably at wholesale of course) and where is the money being lost except from the buyer/leaser?
 
knightmb said:
TimLee said:
The cost of the lease is based on end of lease value versus their cost, which is price minus the government subsidies.
Based on wholesale prices they have been losing lots of $.
Will lose less $ on the later models because they lowered the residual estimates (ttherefore raised the lease cost).

Surely you don't think the government subsidy a purchaser gets is real profit for Nisssn?
The LEAF will lose $ on everyone they sell or lease for another five years or more.
Help me understand where the $7k loss is coming from then.

The dealership I talked to only subtracted the lease payments from the payout value (2 or 3 years later depending on which you choose) and thus a new 2015 Leaf with a $350 / Mo lease payment for 3 years ($12,600 paid in after 3 years), the residual value for purchase was still going to be $15,000 for just the S base model. So Nissan takes the $7,500 tax credit (which they can actually use, I sure can't), plus the $12,600 I would have given them for the 3 year lease, so they have made $20k from my lease and then sell the vehicle for $15k, so it the dealership just made $35k if I bought the vehicle after 3 years for a $30k retail vehicle.

Maybe my confusion is that Nissan takes the tax credit and the dealership is making the extra money at the end of the lease, but the Dealership still had to purchase the vehicle from Nissan (probably at wholesale of course) and where is the money being lost except from the buyer/leaser?


They are never going to get that $15k though. More like 8K.
 
MikeinDenver said:
They are never going to get that $15k though. More like 8K.
Ah ok, the sale value will be a loss. Would it be related to the rumors of the 200 mile leaf that would come out before then?
 
Indeed, and the Chevy Bolt too. A used Leaf will be a tough sell once EVs with twice the range and low lease payments hit the market.

I'm hoping that as battery technology progresses, either Nissan or the aftermarket will offer replacement battery packs for early leafs that expand their range close to the range of next-generation EVs.
 
tractioninc said:
A used Leaf will be a tough sell once EVs with twice the range and low lease payments hit the market..
Well, they will have less value, but I still think there is a value for a 40-60 miles (assuming degraded battery) BEV, especially in urban areas..
A lot depends on the actual costs for these new 200 mile range cars when they come out.
If they are around $30k, then even after rebates $8-$10k depending on condition might be a decent price for some one looking for an inexpensive BEV (and if the range still fits for them).
And if they are $35k or more.... (at least initially until battery prices start to drop as quantity increases)..
It's even possible (according to some rumors) that Nissan (and other?) BEV vendors will still be selling 80 mile cars, with the "option" for 200 (or 150 or whatever it is they end up with)...

I'm not sure that we aren't fairly close to the bottom of the used Leaf market.

And if battery replacements become more viable (even lower prices than the $5500 or 3rd parties doing it for a lower cost??), that might keep the used market going.. (Which is probably a good reason for Nissan NOT to drop that price..)

desiv
 
desiv said:
And if battery replacements become more viable (even lower prices than the $5500 or 3rd parties doing it for a lower cost??), that might keep the used market going.. (Which is probably a good reason for Nissan NOT to drop that price..)

I don't mean to derail this discussion, but has there been any word from the (non-Nissan) aftermarket yet on replacement or refreshed battery packs for sale, or battery repair services?
 
knightmb said:
Ah ok, the sale value will be a loss. Would it be related to the rumors of the 200 mile leaf that would come out before then?
They have been losing quite a few $ at auction ever since the first 2011 two year leases were returned in early 2013.
NMAC was slow to take action to reduce the losses.
Never offered residual reduction to the leaseor on the 2011.
But have been offering $6,000 residual reduction on 2012.
Better to lose $6,000 than $8,000 to $9,000 at auction.

Rumors of longer range Gen 2 may have recently depressed auction prices.
But auction prices were already very low since 2011 leases began showing up at auction in early 2013.
That was long before there were many rumors of longer range Gen 2.

Some of it has been caused by lower cost LEAF S, particularly in a state like Georgia where there was a $5,000 state tax credit that could be claimed over several years.

Used LEAF prices are badly low.
 
I'm in the market for a '13 as well. Do you already have a leaf? If not, you may find this thread on battery life worth reading: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=44&t=12789&p=415338#p415338" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
The way I see it- as long as Nissan sets a floor at auctions for lease returns, the wholesale value is artificially inflated. Yes. Even at much less than the residual value, the prices are still high IMO. If you ask me (yeah, I know- opinions...), a 2011/12 Leaf SL should be worth about $8 or $9K TOPS depending on condition. If Nissan simply put them up for auction without a minimum, I would bet good money that this is what they would go for. Now with the improved battery chemistry of (some) of the 2013s, as well as the 2014/15s, I could see a wholesale value at something closer to what we are seeing on this list. Bottom line: I wouldn't pay more than MAYBE $14K for a 2011 SL in excellent condition with a new lizard battery. That means it is a $8K wholesale car with no room for markup.

Am I wrong, misguided, delusional....or does this sound about right?
 
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