DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 12206
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:48 am

Its been less than 24 hours but I have already been asked dozens of times, "why didn't you get a Bolt?" Here is why

http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/2016/11 ... eco-b.html

Actually a pretty tough decision and only time will tell whether it was good or bad but either way, this positions me perfectly for the T 3 which is kinda what I was looking at long term anyway :)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 26,100.2 miles.363GID Ahr 79.55Hx95.35%kwh28.1QCs227,L2's 237
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jsnowut
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:06 am
Delivery Date: 08 Nov 2016

Re: After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:13 am

Thanks for sharing the write up. You obviously put a lot of thought and analysis behind your decisions and sharing that can really help others. I don't quite understand the 18.9 cents/mile calculation. Care to shed light on that?

Seems like a great choice - cheers and enjoy!

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 12206
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:34 pm

jsnowut wrote:Thanks for sharing the write up. You obviously put a lot of thought and analysis behind your decisions and sharing that can really help others. I don't quite understand the 18.9 cents/mile calculation. Care to shed light on that?

Seems like a great choice - cheers and enjoy!


take total lease cost minus externals like registrations (would be same with Bolt anyway) etc. divide it by total lease miles. in reality, 18.9 cents per mile is a high estimate because part of the registration fees will be refunded back to me. This is an old dealer ploy to get people to come in and pick up their license plates. There is a time limit for dealers to get this done but customers tend to drag their feet until they hear that there is a check also waiting for them.

Now you won't get a dealer in the World to admit this and the fact that I used to sell cars shouldn't sway you either...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 26,100.2 miles.363GID Ahr 79.55Hx95.35%kwh28.1QCs227,L2's 237
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jsnowut
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:06 am
Delivery Date: 08 Nov 2016

Re: After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:08 pm

Got it. Thanks.

dougcpa
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:03 am

Re: After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:16 am

Really not a damnation of the Bolt, just bad timing. As your blog post stated, the Bolt just started production and thus demand is far greater than the supply, which means 1) you'll have a hard time getting one for a good 6 months or more and 2) you're not going to get a stellar deal.

The only qualm I have is your analysis seems to be comparing buying a Bolt vs leasing a Leaf which I find rather odd. You go into quite a few calcs that end up saying the Bolt is a bad deal financially. Well, comparing an EV lease vs EV purchase you bet. Even if you did the same analysis comparing a Leaf purchase vs a Leaf lease you'd likely get similar results.

Reality is the Leaf's time is about up so dealers are pushing sales heavily which means much better discounts. I don't even know how Nissan is going to sell a Leaf later next year since the 2017 is going to have the same 107 mile range as the 2016 and by then you'll have Bolt's more readily available and the T3 will be that much closer to hitting the market.

If I had to get an EV today I'd make the same decision you made, but it would be because I simply wouldn't be able to buy a Bolt. They are currently only being sold in OR and CA, I'm in MO, I probably won't see any here until late next Summer. So yeah, that basically just leaves the Leaf as my only choice.

Fortunately I don't need a new car right now, so I can wait until the Bolt is more readily available.

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 12206
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: After the first two time you would think I would have learned...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:07 pm

dougcpa wrote:Really not a damnation of the Bolt, just bad timing. As your blog post stated, the Bolt just started production and thus demand is far greater than the supply, which means 1) you'll have a hard time getting one for a good 6 months or more and 2) you're not going to get a stellar deal.

The only qualm I have is your analysis seems to be comparing buying a Bolt vs leasing a Leaf which I find rather odd. You go into quite a few calcs that end up saying the Bolt is a bad deal financially. Well, comparing an EV lease vs EV purchase you bet. Even if you did the same analysis comparing a Leaf purchase vs a Leaf lease you'd likely get similar results.

Reality is the Leaf's time is about up so dealers are pushing sales heavily which means much better discounts. I don't even know how Nissan is going to sell a Leaf later next year since the 2017 is going to have the same 107 mile range as the 2016 and by then you'll have Bolt's more readily available and the T3 will be that much closer to hitting the market.

If I had to get an EV today I'd make the same decision you made, but it would be because I simply wouldn't be able to buy a Bolt. They are currently only being sold in OR and CA, I'm in MO, I probably won't see any here until late next Summer. So yeah, that basically just leaves the Leaf as my only choice.

Fortunately I don't need a new car right now, so I can wait until the Bolt is more readily available.



logic of the argument is really quite simple; talk about what is known. had absolutely no clue what the Bolt would lease for and I was also considering the fact that there was pretty much a zero chance of me buying a 30 kwh LEAF.
This is why I provided the numbers as such. Bear in mind, The Bolt was possibly higher due to not accounting for any discounts. I recently heard that a Bolt dealer in Cali was selling them under MSRP but not worth the hassle of getting a car there. I also feel that WA would have Bolts to sell by early to mid Feb so not a long wait at all so there is a financial consideration including the fact that I would not get the full $7500 from the Feds that simply made it an easy decision for me. Now had I been looking 6 months from now, it could be a much different story.

Also didn't mention that the Kia Soul is offering very good lease deals that include some free charging, etc. but that was not more range so not really all that attractive to me
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 26,100.2 miles.363GID Ahr 79.55Hx95.35%kwh28.1QCs227,L2's 237
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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