LeftieBiker
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Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:18 pm

I was playing with lease numbers a couple of weeks ago when the Leaf 2 info was leaked, and even with the very good prices it appears we will be paying for the Leaf 2, The reduced cost leases that GM is finally offering will easily beat what Nissan can offer - IF they keep Leaf residuals at about 33%. With a money factor of .003, and a down payment of $2k (many states now offer this as a rebate) and the $7500 Federal tax credit subtracted, this is about what you get for a fairly loaded $36,000 SV:

Monthly Lease Payment: $487.50
Monthly Depreciation $375.00
Monthly Interest $112.50
Monthly Tax $0.00
Money Factor Equivalent APR 7.20%
Upfront Payment $2,000.00
Total 36 Lease Payments $17,550.00
Total Cost to Own After Lease Ends $31,550.00

(I'm not including tax because many states require it be paid on the lease only up front, and others have no tax at all)

With Bolt Premiere leases now routinely at or under $300, this is a problem for Nissan - and for those of us who want to lease a Leaf 2. If Nissan were to raise the residual to, say, 45%, leaving the rest the same, we get...

Monthly Lease Payment: $414.21
Monthly Depreciation $286.11
Monthly Interest $128.10
Monthly Tax $0.00
Money Factor Equivalent APR 7.20%
Upfront Payment $2,000.00
Total 36 Lease Payments $14,911.60
Total Cost to Own After Lease Ends $33,111.60

Still not great, but I might at least consider it...
With the residual at 50%, or $18k (the most that I or most people would want to pay to buy a car off lease), I get:

Monthly Lease Payment: $369.61
Monthly Depreciation $236.11
Monthly Interest $133.50
Monthly Tax $0.00
Money Factor Equivalent APR 7.20%
Upfront Payment $2,000.00
Total 36 Lease Payments $13,306.00
Total Cost to Own After Lease Ends $33,306.00

What this all boils down to is that even with Nissan undercutting the Bolt's MSRP by a substantial margin, the leases are going to be where the action is. What will Nissan do? Put per-car profit ahead of volume sold, as GM did with the Bolt for 6 months, or will they go for sales figures, and offer very attractive leases as they did in 2013? I doubt we'll see $149 SV leases again, but it could get interesting...

There may be errors in the above figures, so feel free to check them.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

RonDawg
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Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:46 am
Delivery Date: 11 Jan 2013
Leaf Number: 027089
Location: SoCal

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:22 pm

If Nissan can't compete with Bolt on capability, it will have no choice but to do so on price (whether purchase or lease) if they expect to sell with any reasonable volume.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar on 11/21/2015 at 26,435 miles.
Lease returned on 12/23/2015. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL

LeftieBiker
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Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:11 pm

RonDawg wrote:If Nissan can't compete with Bolt on capability, it will have no choice but to do so on price (whether purchase or lease) if they expect to sell with any reasonable volume.


I agree, but I'm wondering about the next three months in particular. On the one hand, Nissan wants to make a good launch for the Leaf "2". On the other hand, between GM dumping 2017 Bolts and the Leaf 2 not coming off assembly lines until December, they may decide to make the September launch a PR-only event, and hold back on the sales event until Christmas or New Years. That would be essentially the same as what GM did with the Bolt, except that it took GM much longer to start offering attractive Bolt leases. I suspect that Nissan won't want to follow GM in sales curve...
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

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jhm614
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Leaf Number: 000493
Location: Arlington, TX

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:15 am

LeftieBiker wrote:I'm wondering about the next three months in particular. On the one hand, Nissan wants to make a good launch for the Leaf "2". On the other hand, between GM dumping 2017 Bolts and the Leaf 2 not coming off assembly lines until December, they may decide to make the September launch a PR-only event, and hold back on the sales event until Christmas or New Years. That would be essentially the same as what GM did with the Bolt, except that it took GM much longer to start offering attractive Bolt leases. I suspect that Nissan won't want to follow GM in sales curve...

Nissan may want to follow the GM sales curve exactly - due to the fact that this is a re-design launch and not just a new model year. So they increase the discounts on any '17s left on the lot and initially stay close to the MSRP on the '18. Once the '17s are cleared out and production has ramped up on the '18s, then they try a month or two close to MSRP. When that doesn't work, then we'll see the lease wars. Maybe starting around Memorial Day?
2011 Brilliant Silver SL - 105,000 gasoline free miles so far.
4BL: 06/29/13 @ 27 months, 43,520 miles, 42.56 Ahr. New 12 bar battery: 09/09/13
4BLx2:12/31/16 @ 69 months, 99,475 miles, 42.99 Ahr.

Joe6pack
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:57 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 025854

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:01 am

I expect Nissan to offer the same $199/mo. lease deal on the S they always have. Nissan passes the entire Federal tax credit on in a lease, so you can add $7,500 to the residual. GM typically does not. Also, that money factor is ridiculous. GM's stated sales target is about 30K units, which they should hit no problem. All this points to the LEAF being the same great deal on a lease it always has been - at least until the tax credit runs out.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

GetOffYourGas
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Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:55 am

Joe6pack wrote:Nissan passes the entire Federal tax credit on in a lease, so you can add $7,500 to the residual.


That's actually not how Nissan passes on the credit. They use it as a CCR (capital Cost Reduction). The difference is minor if you lease and return. It's a big difference though if you lease-to-own and buy at the end.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

LeftieBiker
Posts: 6795
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Will There Be A Bolt / Leaf 2 Lease War?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:51 pm

The money factor I used is not "ridiculous." It's the one I got with my lease. You can substitute GMAC's typical .005 if you like.

Nissan doesn't want to follow GM's sales curve because after the initial enthusiasm, Bolt sales have lagged well behind projections, because of the terrible leases (and in part because of the bad seats, I'll bet). I could wait until Memorial Day, but I'm not sure I would. If Nissan isn't offering good leases by New Year's, I may lease a Bolt and fix the driver's seat, if I like it otherwise.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

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