GRA
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5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:09 pm

Via IEVS: https://insideevs.com/5-year-depreciation-of-27170-means-used-nissan-leafs-are-a-deal/

According to new data, the Nissan LEAF is the biggest 5-year depreciator among cars right now, which means a used one could be a real steal. . . .

    1. Nissan LEAF
    Base MSRP: $30,875; 5-Year Depreciation: $27,170; Retained Value: 22%. Electric cars in general tend to have weaker than average resale values on account of the one-time federal tax credit that effectively slashes their sticker prices by $7,500 (and even more if state cash incentives apply). The Nissan Leaf has been the top selling EV the last few years, which swells their supply in the resale market (at least among used electric cars), and in turn adversely affects its value.

So then, the math works out to $3,705 for that 5-year-old LEAF. We don’t think you’ll find one easily for that cheap, but you’ll definitely be able to get a deal on an older LEAF just as soon as you start searching for one. We see older LEAFs as cheap as $5,000 listed right now. . . .

Not that this is likely to be news to anyone who owns one.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:35 pm

This is way too simplistic an analysis because a person shopping for a $10k car is not shopping for a new car, tax credits notwithstanding.

Oh, the introduction of the new and much-improved LEAF means that value for the old LEAF will plummet even more, so buy that used LEAF now.

They got this wrong too. The new LEAF is not yet discounted, and certainly no where near the actual prices paid for new 30 kWh models a year ago. The price gap has *raised* the used LEAF market value as would be expected.

In fact, the entire analysis is shoddy although it is certainly true that used LEAFs are still excellent value if the car meets the customer use requirements ... and the consumer is informed enough to navigate the potential battery pitfalls.
Last edited by SageBrush on Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
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2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

mmmike
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:40 pm

Speaking of cheap used leafs - https://austin.craigslist.org/cto/6536615062.html I just noticed this one today.
2013 SV 36k 10bars - 48.6 aHr
Charging - Maxx-16 3.8kw exclusively
Central Texas

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:19 pm

I've yet to see an advert that reminds people that they can buy a replacement battery and end up with close to a brand new condition Gen 1 LEAF for well under $10k
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DarthPuppy
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:56 pm

I concur. I'm guessing the battery replacement must be rather daunting. So few people on this forum seem willing to consider that. And if the early adopters won't undertake that, I doubt many in the general used car market will go for that approach.
'13 Leaf SL
'18 Honda Clarity Touring PHEV

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:35 pm

I don't think that is it. I've read multiple reports of people who decide to sell a Gen1 LEAF with a new battery (purchased or warranty) who do not get that much more money than a car otherwise similar with an old battery. It does not make economic sense, and I think it represents an information gap that can be exploited for profit. Of course, the existence of the market inefficiency implies widespread ignorance. The seller would have to be a patient and a talented communicator to educate the buyer and dispel any lingering FUD regarding the car that crapped out so early.

I know that when I bought my LEAF last year I considered buying a LEAF on its last battery legs but I don't live in the best part of the country for that approach and I was under the wrong impression that the replacement battery would only have a one year warranty. I thought at the time that a LEAF with a proven track record of slow battery degradation was a better bet than taking whatever Nissan had on the shelf.

The early adopters are probably a different story. They may feel screwed by Nissan after spending ~ $26k on a car that lasted 5 years and just want to walk away, or they are pursuing the next great EV. The Tesla forum is stuffed with current and former LEAF owners.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DarthPuppy
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:09 pm

Definitely it wouldn't make sense to pay for the battery replacement just to turn around and sell it. That is not likely to be a money maker.

But I can certainly see people snagging an otherwise good car for a real low price and then paying to replace the battery and then having a like new, efficient car for a fraction of the cost. But that is going to appeal to a more adventurous buyer - one who can do the research upfront on the replacement as part of the purchase decision and then afford to buy a car, pay for the replacement all while letting it sit at the shop for xx days while the dealer does the replacement. If they are then going to keep it for the long term as a bargain car purchase, that can work out quite economically. If they are going to fixate on what they could then sell the car for, it won't pencil out.

But where are they going to do their research? A forum like this. Oh wait, not much posting on here by people who have done that... Guess it must not be a good idea if even the Leaf enthusiasts aren't willing to do it. And that is a real shame. I just reviewed the spreadsheets tracking the maintenance costs on all my family's cars. The Leaf blows away everything else we've ever owned in terms of low cost to maintain. As noted in another thread of 7-year owners and the conditions of their cars, it sounds like these last pretty well except for the battery.
'13 Leaf SL
'18 Honda Clarity Touring PHEV

epic
Posts: 157
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Leaf Number: 025174
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:59 am

the entire issue with the leaf is the non-conditioned batterie.if Nissan simply would condition it the resale would double plus and people might return as a customer. the car was great ,the batterie sucked.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:39 am

DarthPuppy wrote:I concur. I'm guessing the battery replacement must be rather daunting. So few people on this forum seem willing to consider that. And if the early adopters won't undertake that, I doubt many in the general used car market will go for that approach.

It isn't just the battery. There are other things that can and will fail on the car for which Nissan controls the cost of replacement parts. Witness $3k for a parking brake actuator and $480 just for some little water pump.
I'll be surprised if many of these cars are still on the road after 10 years.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

CWO4Mann
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Re: 5-YEAR DEPRECIATION OF $27,170 = USED NISSAN LEAFS ARE A STEAL

Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:49 am

In my case, I'm still happy with my 2012 delivered in December 2011. The Leaf shows 40,101 miles as of this morning. Expense thus far are: new tires @ $425 for four including everything (Disabled Veteran's discount); new Coolant circulator pump @ $565; new 12v battery @ $85; trailer hitch @ $265; cabin filters every year (DIY with trimmed Swiffer pads); LED Running lights (DIY); new seat-covers after burning a hole in one with dropped roach; towing hook @ $35; complete detailing every year @ $100 (including tips).

Stealer visit every 10k miles for first 30k miles (free); pronounced "excellent condition with slight degradation of capacity; No more Stealer free tests; $85 after last 30k check, so they can "KMSMA" (Bender's fave expression).

Car use has been all in and around the Nashville metro area out to some destinations at 50-60 miles, planned carefully for a refueling stop at end of first leg of mission run.

Largest loads? 30 bags mulch; ~400lbs manure from local farm (in trash bags, travel with windows down); 10 hay bales; 6 bags cement;

Now contemplating all-leather upholstery.

YMMV, IMHO, LSMFT.

Dave
Ira est potens et pertinax.
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2012 SL Glacier Pearl VIN: 1567 Delivered 12-11-2011
Cool Springs Nissan, Franklin, TN

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