LeftieBiker
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Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:59 pm

It isn't my "personal opinion" that I have never seen someone writing that they have 12 bars showing and are unhappy with the degradation rate. Call it PsyOps by Nissan if you like, but don't call it my opinion. Now you get the last word on this silly dispute.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 533
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Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:44 pm

WetEV wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Being overly selective with our data aren't we? Why so silent about the 30kwh 2016's?


GM has replaced some Bolt packs for BMS problems as well. And reprogrammed the rest. Didn't you know that? As far as what is known, the 30kWh 2016 problem was a BMS firmware issue. (Oh, I know that Lefty disagrees. But he would, wouldn't he?)

https://gm.oemdtc.com/8849/customer-sat ... et-bolt-ev

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-ni ... reporting/


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:And why not mention the model S, which has been available since 2012 and hasn't had a degradation issue either? Because that wouldn't fit in with your narrative either?

FYI, I'm not trying to defend the leaf. I'm debating the flaw in not recommending any EV's for a 200-mile commute.


Defend the LEAF? Oh, that is very clear. Not the slightest. You are very clear about that.

I think you either misunderstand my narrative, or have one of your own. I probably can't fix this.

200 miles of daily driving probably isn't a commute, but an outside sales job. You drive to and visit with customers. Can't work from home on bad days, as your physical presence, delivering samples and such is the job. These are some of the last people to be able to use an EV. A commute would actually be easier, as you either would or wouldn't have Superchargers on the route. Another marginal case are people that need to drive over 200 miles round trip to get to good shopping. More than that to get to a Starbucks. There is some pretty empty country in the Great Plains.

So what is the top Telsa range? 289 miles, yes? Tesla loses range with cold weather and with time/miles, just like any other EV or ICE. Need a reserve, getting home on turtle isn't wise, fun or sustainable. Do the math. Say 30% range loss for weather (and that can be too low, some places) and 10% capacity loss, and a 10% reserve.


Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

SageBrush
Posts: 3263
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:18 am

LeftieBiker wrote:It isn't my "personal opinion" that I have never seen someone writing that they have 12 bars showing and are unhappy with the degradation rate.
Its your selective memory on top of people not understanding degradation until they see a bar drop.

If you are going to write a FAQ then do your best to stick with facts. It should be obvious that 'reasonable' or 'unreasonable' are in the eyes of the beholder. Leave that to the reader.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2525
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:59 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?


Totally missing my point.

Ok, my point restated again.

Suppose someone is commuting with a Bolt 150 miles per day. In a place where it never rains, and the wind doesn't blow, and there is no traffic. In such a world, the GOM is accurate. This person is counting on the Bolt going 150 miles per day each and every day. Flat tires are such happen, but they are quickly fixed . Then something starts happening. Every month, the GOM after the trip is 10 miles less. After ending with with 88 miles for months, it drops to 78 miles, then 68, then 58, then 48, then 38 ... gets worried and takes the Bolt into the dealer. Dealer checks capacity, and says you still have 78% of capacity, not covered by warranty. Drives another month, now 28. Next month 18. Next month 8. Takes to dealer again. Dealer checks capacity and says you still have 66% of capacity, not covered by warranty. So what happens next month?

Oh, and about Tesla.

https://insideevs.com/ruin-tesla-batter ... ment-cost/

Listen to Uncle Sean.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 533
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:34 am

WetEV wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?


Totally missing my point.

Ok, my point restated again.

Suppose someone is commuting with a Bolt 150 miles per day. In a place where it never rains, and the wind doesn't blow, and there is no traffic. In such a world, the GOM is accurate. This person is counting on the Bolt going 150 miles per day each and every day. Flat tires are such happen, but they are quickly fixed . Then something starts happening. Every month, the GOM after the trip is 10 miles less. After ending with with 88 miles for months, it drops to 78 miles, then 68, then 58, then 48, then 38 ... gets worried and takes the Bolt into the dealer. Dealer checks capacity, and says you still have 78% of capacity, not covered by warranty. Drives another month, now 28. Next month 18. Next month 8. Takes to dealer again. Dealer checks capacity and says you still have 66% of capacity, not covered by warranty. So what happens next month?

Oh, and about Tesla.

https://insideevs.com/ruin-tesla-batter ... ment-cost/

Listen to Uncle Sean.


You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality. You could claim that the driver sees only 5% degradation every 100k miles and it would be no less applicable.

So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

WetEV
Posts: 2525
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:25 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality.


Tell that to Uncle Sean.


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".


How about something between:

  1. Yes, an EV will very likely work well for you.
  2. Maybe, but you better listen to Uncle Sean.
  3. Doubtful, but perhaps if you are really willing to work at it.
  4. DANGER WILL ROBINSON!
  5. Don't even think about it.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 533
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:19 pm

WetEV wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality.


Tell that to Uncle Sean.


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".


How about something between:

  1. Yes, an EV will very likely work well for you.
  2. Maybe, but you better listen to Uncle Sean.
  3. Doubtful, but perhaps if you are really willing to work at it.
  4. DANGER WILL ROBINSON!
  5. Don't even think about it.


Or how about my original suggestion of: "If you need 200 or more miles of year round range, then you should review the available charging options and charging times along your travel routes first before considering an EV."

Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead. All of this is caveated in Leftie's posting about battery degradation.

And to counter Uncle Sean's reality, I have Christian Roy of Quebec: https://twitter.com/teslataxi?lang=en (300,000 km)
and Ari Nyyssönen of Finland: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/what-s-i ... s-of-miles

"Nyyssönen says his battery retains about 93% of its original capacity." - after 250,000 miles. Both of their batteries have been fine, despite being the earlier build model S85's, which had the bearing problems that needed replacement.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

WetEV
Posts: 2525
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:18 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.


Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.

So then if you do 200 miles, how much EPA range should you have? I think I see that 210 miles isn't sufficient, correct?

What about 220 miles?

Of course it all depends on if you want the car to last, and how much risk you are willing to take, with a lot of fuzzy factors on how long batteries will last under different usages. Which I'm sure you are an expert at all of that...
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

rogersleaf
Posts: 201
Joined: Sun May 18, 2014 7:50 pm
Delivery Date: 17 May 2014
Leaf Number: 337936
Location: Kent, Ohio

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:53 pm

WetEV wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.


Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.

The Uncle Sean video has some very interesting and relevant points. Despite buying into supposed battery utopia with chilled liquid cooling and operating in a relatively cool climate, he still managed to roach his pack with repeated DCFC before the reasonable lifespan of a car had passed.

I don't feel so bad now about the 13% decay over 3 yrs/45K miles from my 24 KWh LEAF. Afterall, I charged to 100% every night and ran it down every day well into LBW and commonly into VLBW to squeeze out a 75 mile commute. Then, plugged it in for recharge as soon as returning home, while the battery was still hot from the drive. This pattern was repeated every day for 8 months straight before parking it for the Winter. Not exactly the most battery-friendly usage behavior. The only thing I didn't do (ever) was DCFC because my car didn't have the port. Maybe those air-cooled batteries and "Rapidgate" charging constraints to protect them aren't so unreasonable if it fits with your lifestyle and climate?
2014 SV - Brilliant Silver - returned 1/2017 at end of lease.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 533
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:27 am

WetEV wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.


Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.

So then if you do 200 miles, how much EPA range should you have? I think I see that 210 miles isn't sufficient, correct?

What about 220 miles?

Of course it all depends on if you want the car to last, and how much risk you are willing to take, with a lot of fuzzy factors on how long batteries will last under different usages. Which I'm sure you are an expert at all of that...


What does my expertise have to do with real life examples showing that the S85 works just fine for people who need the 200 mile daily range? Why do you just focus on the few examples of abuse (and resultant failure) and ignore the copious examples where a BEV works just fine? Does your experience with your 84-mile range leaf make you enough of an expert that you can ignore all the counter examples of people who do just fine with their BEV's?

Are you mocking me out of envy for correctly figuring out which EV works for my needs?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

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