CHAdeMO losing the standards battle?

We just had a BMW EV test-drive fair at work. When I pointed out that our area has more CHAdeMO fast chargers than SAE (used by BMW i3), he scoffed and said. "The industry standard is SAE - CHAdeMO is going away."

Fact-check anyone?

More trash talk from a Frankenplug player. See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=371615#p371615 and Tony's earlier post. Despite "support" from various players, "support" doesn't necessarily mean actually shipping cars w/the inlet they support or being serious about DC FCing EVs/PHEVs.

Your reply should been, "why does the i3 in Japan ship with a CHAdeMO inlet standard?" and "why won't supporters like GM fund DC FC infrastructure?" (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101774_gm-wont-fund-ccs-fast-charging-sites-for-2017-chevy-bolt-ev)

Here was some trash talk from GM back in 2012 at https://web.archive.org/web/20120521080212/http://www.torquenews.com/1075/gm-and-nissan-trade-punches-over-electric-car-fast-charging.

http://www.chademo.com/ has the current count of CHAdeMO DC FCs. I don't have a link handy to the current # of Superchargers stalls, but at one point in the US, it was ahead of CHAdeMO.

About the only way it would go away in favor of SAE Combo in the US is if Nissan does an about face and abandons it, instead putting on SAE Combo on their future cars and nobody else picks up the baton and continues running w/CHAdeMO. This isn't impossible, but doesn't seem likely nor logical.

You can easily find all the data.

CCS has been around since 2012, and it hasn't "taken over" yet. I doubt that anything will take over in the short term, but in 10-30 years, who knows? I seriously doubt we will have large, clunky plugs like CHAdeMO or CCS.

Until then, there will be at least those two, and probably more before there are less.


CHAdeMO - worldwide the same plug
http://www.CHAdeMO.com
The number of CHAdeMO DC Quick chargers installed up to today is 12028.
Japan 6958
Europe 3178
USA 1784
Others 108
last update 2016 Aug 10


Tesla Supercharger - regional plugs in USA / Japan are different from Europe
http://supercharge.info
688 World (they might average 5 plugs per site, so about 3440 worldwide)
286 USA (using 5 average per site, about 1340 plugs in the USA)


CCS Combo 1 (SAE), regional, USA / Canada only
750 ??? (probably can get this from PlugShare)


CCS Combo 2 - regional, Europe only
http://ccs-map.eu/stats/
2390 in Europe


GB/T - regional, China only
?????

At least from limited personal experience using the NCTC program around Chicago; predominance on 'existing' QC stations has been just a single CHAdeMO plug/cable but on newer stations they offer both. On the new ones, they also show the date/time it was last used; on two stations I looked at with both, the SAE was used about a month previous on one and a few days prior on another so at least some SAE plugged EV's are finding these stations. For the CHAdeMO; in both cases it was just an hour or so prior --- again, all just anecdotal but SAE cars that use these aren't in great numbers in the Midwest at least.

The only CCS car sold in the USA in any volume is the BMW i3. The i3 uses a different plug on each continent:

CCS Combo 1 in the North American region
CCS Combo 2 in the European region
CHAdeMO in Japan

The other two CCS cars in the USA (VW eGolf and GM Spark EV) just meet regulatory minimums. Even the GM Bolt with CCS is only forecast to sell 25,000 to 35,000 cars. To my knowledge, only the later i3 cars come standard with CCS (it's an extra cost option on the others).

TonyWilliams said:

The only CCS car sold in the USA in any volume is the BMW i3. The i3 uses a different plug on each continent:

CCS Combo 1 in the North American region
CCS Combo 2 in the European region
CHAdeMO in Japan

The other two CCS cars in the USA (VW eGolf and GM Spark EV) just meet regulatory minimums. Even the GM Bolt with CCS is only forecast to sell 25,000 to 35,000 cars. To my knowledge, only the later i3 cars come standard with CCS (it's an extra cost option on the others).

Click to expand...

Good point -- eGolf and Spark EV are not yet sold here (both may continue to be strictly compliance cars and may never get to the Midwest) but I've seen several i3's in the area (still nowhere near as much as the LEAF or Tesla S which seems to outnumber the LEAF quite a bit)

Thanks, all, for the great perspective and links. Like any standards battle, time will tell. One more reason I'm glad I'm leasing. I'll ask the question again in 3 years before my lease is up...

Most vehicles of both standards come equipped with their respective DC ports when optional. BMW includes it as standard for the 2015-2017 model years. I believe everybody else has them as incredibly common options included on the vast majority of cars sold.

So far in 2016 the sales tallies for CHAdeMO in the US have been:

Nissan Leaf: 6856
Kia Soul EV: 792
Mitsubishi i: 40

Total: 7688


2016 CCS sales in the US:

BMW i3: 4359
Chevy Spark EV: 2112
VW eGolf: 1799

Total: 8270

So CHAdeMO isn't dead of course and won't be dead ever or for a very long time. That said, CCS and CHAdeMO-equipped vehicles delivered in the US in 2016 YTD are more or less at parity. In the US the CCS cars are no longer a tiny fraction of the market. Naturally the EV market is still morphing daily in huge directions and it's anyone's guess where we'll ultimately end up.

Calendar 2016 additions:

Chevrolet Bolt EV (CCS)
Ford Focus EV (CCS)
Hyundai Ioniq EV (CCS)

Calendar 2017 additions:

Honda Clarity BEV (likely CHAdeMO)
Audi Q6 e-Tron (CCS)
Nissan e-NV (CHAdeMO)

Calendar 2018-2020 additions:

(Four) Mercedes-Benz BEVs (CCS)
Ford Model E (CCS)
Porsche Mission E (CCS)
VW Combi (Budd-e) (CCS)


Honda could pull a Hyundai shocker and go with CCS and, if they do, the US market basically comes down to Nissan vs. everyone else. It's not hard to envision the year 2020 with Nissan and Mitsu being the only BEVs shipping with CHAdeMO, and Mitsu isn't exactly a strong brand in this country.

If GM, Ford, FCA, or VAG decide to get serious in the EV space those models will almost certainly be CCS. As Kia is part of the Hyundai group it's not hard to conceptualize future Kia EVs going CCS (Kia dealers with quick charging have dual-standard units already).

It certainly seems plausible than within five model years CCS market share could be the biggest piece of the pie. Every QC I use is now equipped with both nozzles so as a consumer I don't really care.

TonyWilliams said:

You can easily find all the data.

CCS has been around since 2012, and it hasn't "taken over" yet. I doubt that anything will take over in the short term, but in 10-30 years, who knows? I seriously doubt we will have large, clunky plugs like CHAdeMO or CCS.

Until then, there will be at least those two, and probably more before there are less.


CCS Combo 1 (SAE), regional, USA / Canada only
750 ??? (probably can get this from PlugShare) <snip>

Click to expand...

Tony, CCS-1 rather than -2 is also used in Oz. See http://chargestar.com.au/

mtndrew1, locally and I believe nationally, i3 with REx vs. non-REx sales seem to be running somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1. Are the REx versions equipped with CCS? Seems unnecessary.

In my corner of the Bay Area, the e-Golf is becoming a lot more common sight (one every day or two), and Spark EVs also seem to be on the uptick. As for i3s, a recent evening rush hour census I took of PEVs totaled 136, of which 8 were i3s: 5 REx, 2 non-REx, and one undetermined (view of the right front fender was blocked, and no HOV stickers of either color were present).

the reality is,

the best selling EVs in America are Chademo native like Nissan or Chademo capable like Tesla.

VS the best selling CCS vehicle is probably the BMW i3REX, it has a petrol tank.

I also have optimism that GM Bolt will sell well in USA before the LEAF 2 is released.

CCS is healthiest in CARB states, but CCS vehicles outside of CARB states are pathetic, the rest of the country just buy what the 'dealers' actually are hoping to sell. which is Nissan or Tesla.

understand this, CCS is really just a VW/BMW standard, the others are just there for the ride.

GRA said:

mtndrew1, locally and I believe nationally, i3 with REx vs. non-REx sales seem to be running around somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1. Are the REx versions equipped with CCS? Seems unnecessary.

Click to expand...

To the best of my knowledge the CCS port has been standard equipment on every i3 since the 2015 model year (both BEV and REx) and was fitted to the vast majority of the initial 2014 model year cars of both types.

mtndrew1 said:

To the best of my knowledge the CCS port has been standard equipment on every i3 since the 2015 model year (both BEV and REx) and was fitted to the vast majority of the initial 2014 model year cars of both types.

Click to expand...

Thanks.

mtndrew1 said:

Most vehicles of both standards come equipped with their respective DC ports when optional. BMW includes it as standard for the 2015-2017 model years. I believe everybody else has them as incredibly common options included on the vast majority of cars sold.

Click to expand...

Source of the last statement? I've seen no evidence to suggest it's the vast majority.

mtndrew1 said:

So far in 2016 the sales tallies for CHAdeMO in the US have been:
...

2016 CCS sales in the US:

Click to expand...

That's only a TINY part of the picture. There's the huge installed base of existing vehicles (mainly Leaf) vs. the tiny # for the compliance cars (Spark EV and e-Golf). See http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/. VW even introduced a cheaper trim that doesn't come with DC FCing: http://insideevs.com/volkswagen-announces-addition-of-cheaper-29815-entry-level-e-golf-for-2016/.

And, the Spark EV didn't have DC FCing available as a choice until early 2014 (http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5121#p5121).

Teslas can also charge using CHAdeMO using http://shop.teslamotors.com/products/chademo-adapter.

mtndrew1 said:

... Every QC I use is now equipped with both nozzles so as a consumer I don't really care.

Click to expand...

Did they retrofit dual connectors on many of these?
The only dual connector I have seen in Chattanooga was a brand new DCQC installed within the last six months.

TimLee said:

mtndrew1 said:

... Every QC I use is now equipped with both nozzles so as a consumer I don't really care.

Click to expand...

Did they retrofit dual connectors on many of these?
The only dual connector I have seen in Chattanooga was a brand new DCQC installed within the last six months.

Click to expand...

Yes, in California the most prominent (reliable) QC network is NRG. Those started out initially as one Nissan/Sumitomo CHAdeMO and one L2 per "freedom station" site. Over time nearly all of these have been augmented by a dual-head CCS/CHAdeMO station. So the common setup today when pulling up to a DC QC station in California is one Sumitomo CHAdeMO, one dual-head DC unit, and one L2.

More recently, many of the stations are ditching the standalone CHAdeMO unit for a second dual-head QC unit. More slowly and sporadically the single L2 (of the original Chargepoint/Coulomb design) is being replaced with 2 L2 units of a design I haven't seen before.

Blink has a few CHAdeMO-only stations (which rarely work in my experience) and every now and then you'll bump into the Nissan unit off network (LADWP comes to mind) but at this point, more or less, if you seek out a QC station in California you'll end up at a dual-standard unit.

cwerdna said:

mtndrew1 said:

Most vehicles of both standards come equipped with their respective DC ports when optional. BMW includes it as standard for the 2015-2017 model years. I believe everybody else has them as incredibly common options included on the vast majority of cars sold.

Click to expand...

Source of the last statement? I've seen no evidence to suggest it's the vast majority.

mtndrew1 said:

So far in 2016 the sales tallies for CHAdeMO in the US have been:
...

2016 CCS sales in the US:

Click to expand...

That's only a TINY part of the picture. There's the huge installed base of existing vehicles (mainly Leaf) vs. the tiny # for the compliance cars (Spark EV and e-Golf). See http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/. VW even introduced a cheaper trim that doesn't come with DC FCing: http://insideevs.com/volkswagen-announces-addition-of-cheaper-29815-entry-level-e-golf-for-2016/.

And, the Spark EV didn't have DC FCing available as a choice until early 2014 (http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5121#p5121).

Teslas can also charge using CHAdeMO using http://shop.teslamotors.com/products/chademo-adapter.

Click to expand...

I don't think any of the manufacturers publish their model mixes, so I'm just going off my own experience and light sleuthing here. I've helped a number of people in my office buy Leafs, i3s, and Sparks (no e-Golfs yet) and I myself have shopped for EVs narrowing down between i3/Leaf/Soul.

Leaf model structure:
SL: CHAdeMO standard
SV: CHAdeMO standard
S: CHAdeMO/6.6kW OBC optional (commonly equipped and I'm having a hard time finding many on cars.com not equipped with it, which mirrors my experience in shopping for my own Leaf)

Spark EV:
CCS is a standalone $750 option
A quick cars.com perusal shows that most are so equipped. As an aside, the three coworkers who bought them here ended up with CCS even though they weren't looking for it. All the cars on the respective lots just had it.

eGolf model structure:
SEL: CCS standard
SE: CCS/7.2kW OBC optional (cars.com shows at least half of cars in stock being so equipped)

BMW i3:
All models include CCS inlets

Kia Soul EV:
All trims include CHAdeMO as standard

So, I don't think it's hyperbole to state that most EVs delivered to customers this year include their respective quick charge ports and, as such, the ratio stands. EVs currently leaving dealer lots with CCS ports roughly match EVs leaving dealer lots with CHAdeMO ports.

As for the "huge" installed base of CHAdeMO Leafs in the US I'm seeing a grand total of 89,572 cars delivered prior to calendar 2016 with your source, then Leaf sales fell off a cliff. This five year total is equivalent to the number of Accords that Honda sells in about 90 days. If GM, BMW, Ford, and Hyundai were to collectively deliver 100,000 cars with CCS next year (unlikely of course) while Nissan sales skid waiting for Leaf 2.0 that "huge" base would shrink mighty quickly.

Which again leads to the same conclusion I had before; CHAdeMO isn't going anywhere anytime soon but it's still anyone's game to win in regards to QC standard (in the US market).

I'm told that the Honda Hydrogen car will have CHAdeMO in Japan only, and the same car as a BEV in the US will have CCS-Combo 1.

Yep.

TonyWilliams said:

I'm told that the Honda Hydrogen car will have CHAdeMO in Japan only, and the same car as a BEV in the US will have CCS-Combo 1.

Yep.

Click to expand...

Holy cow, that's out of left field if accurate.

Okay so for calendar 2017 the QC lineups in the US are:

CHAdeMO:

Nissan Leaf (50 state, volume) 20k units
Kia Soul EV (compliance) 1.2k units

CCS:

BMW i3/i3 REx (50 state, volume) 12k units
Chevrolet Bolt EV (50 state, volume) 25k units
Ford Focus EV (compliance) 2k units
Honda Clarity BEV (50 state, volume) 25k units
Hyundai Ioniq (50 state, volume) 15k units
Kia Niro EV (Wildcard, same platform and assembly plant as Ioniq so probable it will also be CCS)
VW eGolf (compliance) 5k units


I based the deliveries on 2015 numbers, more or less. That puts us at about 64k projected CCS-capable cars (at a 75% CCS option take rate) and 20k projected CHAdeMO cars (Nissan take rate seems higher + Soul is standard equipment) delivered in the US in calendar '17 in this hypothetical situation.

If any of these numbers come even close to being accurate, the CHAdeMO first-mover advantage will be largely wiped out in the US market. If Kia's Soul moves to CCS like parent Hyundai seems to be doing, it will literally be Nissan vs. Everyone Else in this standards war.

The only variable I see is that if Nissan pulls a rabbit out of a hat and Leaf 2.0 is launched soon and is a hugely popular product (not a crazy concept given Nissan's expertise in this space). If so, it could balance the standards war in this market. I suppose Toyota could also launch a CHAdeMO BEV in the US for 2017 but that seems...unlikely.

I extended test-drove a BMW i3 REX which had CSS, but ended up buying a 2016 LEAF SV (as much as I really, really loved that beemer!). Part of what weighted my decision process was CSS infrastructure vs. CHAdeMO. The most useful DCQC stations for extending my travels are at present CHAdeMO only. There is one very near me that has been upgraded to dual-head CSS/CHAdeMO, but that location only rarely useful for my patterns.

Incidentally, when I finally had reason to use that upgraded dual-head DCQC near my house, I was pleasantly surprised by the much easier to use CHAdeMO connector that worked a lot like the J1772. The other CHAdeMO units I've used have the original multi-lever monster that seems more suited to ground-power a 747!

The CHAdeMO vs. CSS (vs. Tesla) reminds me a lot of the mobile phone industry and various charging/sync connectors. Maybe CHAdeMO is like the old 30-pin, CSS is likeMicroUSB, and Tesla dislike Apple Lightning. We don't have a USB-C equivalent... yet. Oh, and Plugless is the Qi of inductive charging with all the pros and cons there.

Nissan has a new ad for their No Charge to Charge promo and it features a prominent NISSAN branded quick charger with... a CCS handle.

Could the next-gen Leaf in some markets have a CCS port? It seems extremely strange to mock up a dual-standard quick charger with Nissan logos for an ad when there are Nissan-branded Sumitomo CHAdeMO QCs all over the place.

https://youtu.be/n_RyIdCJ7V0

PS: Not that it matters because nobody's gonna buy one, but add the Karma Revero to the CCS camp.