2019 Leaf Announced. NO EXTENDED RANGE.

alozzy said:

Nissan has publicly stated they want to go after the affordable EV market. Given that, it shouldn't be a surprise that they aren't too worried about competing with Tesla at this point.

They should be a lot more worried about the Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs, as those cars are both at a price point that will rob sales from the 2018/2019 LEAFs, assuming Hyundai decides to make them more than compliance cars of course.

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Did you take a look at the US sales figures at https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/? It's estimated the Tesla has sold ~55K Model 3's in the US YTD vs. 9K Leafs, even though the 3 has a much higher price point.

The "$35K" 3 is way late (was supposed to be available to order in Nov 2017). It'll be interesting to see what 3 vs. Leaf sales look like when that finally starts shipping.

Unless they actually are available in quantity, I wouldn't be concerned about Hyundai/Kia BEVs in the US given the hilarious situation w/the Ioniq Electric in the US. It's basically vaporware unless you live in So Cal. If you're in the US, it's only available there. The sales numbers are comical at 254 YTD and 432 for 2017.

I'm not arguing that Model 3 isn't selling well, it's just a different market segment than the LEAF. I could no more afford a Model 3 than a Lamborghini and I trust that I'm not alone in that regard.

How many model 3s has Tesla sold to people that make less than $80K a year?

Also, the Model 3 sales have to be tempered a bit by the fact that they represent sales from when the Model 3 was first announced in March of 2016. Over 300K reservation holders represents pent up demand.

I'm sure a lot depends on location as well. I just visited my sister in law who lives in the bay area. While there, I noticed TONS of Tesla's driving around. I also had a 50 mile commute from her house to my work and I wouldn't have made it in my Leaf. However, here at home in Boulder, there are now about 12-15 Leaf's in the local parking lot, 1 Bolt, 1 Volt and no Tesla's yet. I see Tesla's around town but I probably see 5x the number of Leaf's as Tesla's driving around. In Menlo Park, when I was there, I probably saw 25 Tesla's for every Leaf.

But unless you are a TSLA stock trader, who really cares? I love my Leaf, don't want a Tesla. I'm sure other folks are different than me but I can live with that :mrgreen:

goldbrick said:

I'm sure a lot depends on location as well. I just visited my sister in law who lives in the bay area. While there, I noticed TONS of Tesla's driving around. I also had a 50 mile commute from her house to my work and I wouldn't have made it in my Leaf. However, here at home in Boulder, there are now about 12-15 Leaf's in the local parking lot, 1 Bolt, 1 Volt and no Tesla's yet. I see Tesla's around town but I probably see 5x the number of Leaf's as Tesla's driving around. In Menlo Park, when I was there, I probably saw 25 Tesla's for every Leaf.

But unless you are a TSLA stock trader, who really cares? I love my Leaf, don't want a Tesla. I'm sure other folks are different than me but I can live with that :mrgreen:

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I did another of my occasional one hour evening commute traffic counts last Friday, from 5:20 to 6:20. There was a 3-way tie for first, between the Volt 2, Model S and Model 3, with 12 each. The S numbers are a bit higher than usual, the 2nd gen. Volt's usually dueling with the LEAF (of which there were 11 Friday, plus one 2018) for #1, and there are typically about half as many 1st gen Volts now - I think there were five this time (I don't have my tally sheet with me). There's been a doubling in Model 3s seen over the past month and a half, and I have no hesitation in saying that I expect it to take over undisputed first place by the end of daylight savings if not the end of this month, and hold it for at least a couple of years.

BTW, this was the first one-hour count I've done that exceeded 100 PEVs, at 102 (plus a couple of Mirais and a single Clarity of unknown type). There were only two Primes which is down a bit from normal, and the PiP dropped down to 4. IIRR there were 6 or 8 Bolts, 5 Model Xs, 8 Fusion Energis, and a mix of the others, incl. 1 ea B250e and Rav4.

While GM has been the #1 manufacturer I've seen most of this year, Tesla took it this time with 29 total.

alozzy said:

I'm not arguing that Model 3 isn't selling well, it's just a different market segment than the LEAF. I could no more afford a Model 3 than a Lamborghini and I trust that I'm not alone in that regard.

How many model 3s has Tesla sold to people that make less than $80K a year?

Also, the Model 3 sales have to be tempered a bit by the fact that they represent sales from when the Model 3 was first announced in March of 2016. Over 300K reservation holders represents pent up demand.

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3 is currently a different segment than Leaf.... if only Tesla would start making that $35K Model 3 available...

I can easily afford a 3, S or X (would never want an X) but don't like blowing S or X kind of $ on vehicles, esp. w/Tesla's dodgy long-term reliability record (unknown on 3, so far but not looking great).

Absolutely a lot of the 3 sales numbers represent a lot of pent up demand. Where's the pent up demand for the '18 Leaf? FWIW, two folks at my work (there are probably more) didn't put in any $1K reservation $ and have their 3's now. One of them ordered and got a call that he could pick his 3 as soon as 5 days after he ordered.

I just realized that someone else who jumped ship from Leaf awhile and got (leased, I'm pretty sure) a Clarity BEV (oddly) seems to also have a 3 now (judging by posts elsewhere). Another guy I know w/an '11 Leaf long ago supplemented it with a Bolt awhile back.

I just picked up my Bolt on Tuesday to replace my 2013 Leaf as it only just makes my daily (60 mile commute). On Monday a crash closed the freeway as with very little charge left (8 miles from home) I was sent off into the never never by CHP. My 55 minute commute turned into 3 hrs.

At least with the Bolt I couldv'e got home