jjgilham
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2016

2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:44 am

Image

Above is a picture of my SOH versus miles driven. As can be plainly seen, I got the software update at about 37k. I've been driving for a few months since the update. I live in Seattle and drive about 15k-17k miles in a year commuting and running errands. The effect of the update was to boost the reported SOH about 9%. it appears to me that the slope of the SOH vs miles curve is approximately unchanged since the update and it appears to be about 5% per every 10k miles.

As I'm nearing the end of my lease (calendar 6/2019 or miles 45k - which I'll hit first), I'm starting to consider my end-of-lease options. Assuming the slope of the degradation remains constant it appears to me that I can expect to hit 66% (4 bar lost at about 80k miles. I think the car would cover my daily needs even at 60% as I can charge on L1 at work. I like the idea of buying the car, driving it another 40 or 50k and then getting 2nd life with a new battery.

What are thoughts on this strategy?
2013 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year
2016 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year

alozzy
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:51 am

Considering you live in the PNW, this level of degradation is disappointing for a 2016 LEAF. In your shoes, I wouldn't purchase this car after the lease ends in 2019.

Consider the 2019 models of Hyundai Kona Electric, Kia Niro EV, Kia Soul EV, Chevy Bolt, etc instead.

If you are considering a used EV, I purchased from Paramount Motors NW and they specialize in EV sales:

https://www.paramountmotorsnw.com/inventory

I had no issues buying from them, they were good to deal with.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:08 am

Well guessing your residual is low, your lease payments are low so easy to see why you would want to stick with the car. I have to recommend that you keep tracking your stats. I don't think enough time has passed to make the determination that the slope of degradation is unchanged.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LeftieBiker
Posts: 9804
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:36 pm

Then there is the question of the free replacement battery. How many years away is that? Will they use a current 30kwh battery, a "refurbished" 30kwh pack, or a 30kwh pack with a new chemistry..? It's possible they might use a 40kwh pack, possibly with some capacity 'locked,' but I wouldn't expect that.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

johnlocke
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:21 pm

Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

jjgilham
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2016

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:08 am

johnlocke wrote:Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.



I see that you have a 2016 and got a new battery at 45k miles, Am I correct in assuming that was before the change in the battery controller software? I ask, because I was almost to 2 bars lost on mine before the change which appears to have added 9% the SOH in my case. To my eye, it appears that it may still hit 4 bars before 100k miles and I would love to get a 2nd life on the car at that point. I figure the useful life of the car would go from something like 6 to 12 years if that happens. I do like the car and it fits my needs.
2013 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year
2016 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year

jjgilham
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2016

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:21 pm

johnlocke wrote:Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.



I've got a 2016 SV with 39K miles (lovingly cared for) through 2.5 years of a 3.0 year lease. It is currently a 12-bar car but is reporting 88.6% SOH after the LBC update.

Facts:
Monthly Payment $224
Current Buyout from NMAC $12916
Actual Buyout from dealer $13216 (includes $300 dealer fee)
Estimated Buyout at end of lease $11474

Of course there is also state tax on the transaction and licensing fees which add about $1k to the deal, but of course those apply to purchases on the "open market" as well. When I look what is available on the market I'm seeing 15K or 16k versus 13.2k so I don't see that as attractive. Is there a better place to buy used Leaf's that I'm not seeing?
2013 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year
2016 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year

LeftieBiker
Posts: 9804
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:44 pm

I've got a 2016 SV with 39K miles (lovingly cared for) through 2.5 years of a 3.0 year lease. It is currently a 12-bar car but is reporting 88.6% SOH after the LBC update.


Where do you live? Someplace fairly warm, hopefully?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

alozzy
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:24 pm

The OP lives in Seattle...
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

warrenc
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:33 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Apr 2017
Leaf Number: 418438
Location: Tacoma,WA

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:31 pm

I agree with the OP, less than $13K is below market around here for a 2016 SV. I've been keeping an eye out for one, and they tend to be in the $16K and above range. There is one locally with less miles but missing a bar, and it's from this area (Tacoma).
2013 Leaf SV
Tacoma, WA

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