tesleaf
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:44 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Oct 2018
Location: Vancouver, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:41 pm

GlennD wrote:
WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:This was a pretty frequent worry of people on the Tesla forum *before* they took ownership of the car. Now it is never talked about except to say that the concern turned out to be a non-issue and they *prefer* the way it is setup in the Model 3.

The way to reduce car ownership costs is to keep the car a long time. Once you accept that reality the Model 3 is moderately priced. People who gauge car costs by a 5 year timetable are not prioritizing cost of ownership.


Some of us might well keep a LEAF well beyond 5 years. Some of us see no additional value for the extra money for a Model 3. Some of use actually love our LEAFs, and might well replace the LEAF with a new LEAF if it dies, is totaled, etc. As I already have.

Would you please take the Tesla sales pitches someplace else? Please?


I am holding out for the promised 35K actually 37K in white. It may never happen but Elon promised . I am not holding my breath. They say that currently they can not make a 35K car without loosing money.


Even Chevy says they lose $9K-10K on each Bolt they sell.
Tesla will lose money on $35K TM3.
The demand seems to be high for mid and long range models. Why would they make $35K short range model if they lose money?
I have no reason to FUD Tesla, and I don't think $35K Tesla will ever get produced.
2015 Leaf S w/ QC . I have Leaf Spy Pro.

SageBrush
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:55 pm

Elon has been consistent in saying that the $35k Model 3 will be profitable to manufacture when Tesla is able to produce 10k Model 3 a week. He estimates that will happen early 2019 so I figure mid 2019 until deliveries in substantial volume
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2349
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:42 pm

tesleaf wrote:Even Chevy says they lose $9K-10K on each Bolt they sell.
Tesla will lose money on $35K TM3.


Nissan says they make money on LEAFs, selling for rather less than a Bolt or a TM3. I expect that GM might well have lost $9k, as rumor had it, on the first Bolts including fixed costs and amortization of development costs, but as production costs decline and the development costs are fully amortized, the Bolt has a real chance of making money.

tesleaf wrote:I have no reason to FUD Tesla, and I don't think $35K Tesla will ever get produced.


I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

golfcart
Posts: 139
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:26 am

WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.
2015 S with Charge Package

SageBrush
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:47 pm

golfcart wrote:
WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.

Never is a long time, but since the Federal tax credit drops to $3750 as of Jan 1st you are on safe ground regarding this Model 3 SR iteration ... unless other tax credits come into play. Colorado e.g. has a $5,000 state tax credit, and a handful of other states offer $2,000 - $2,500. And you never know, GM might use its lobbying might to renew the Federal credit.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

tesleaf
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:44 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Oct 2018
Location: Vancouver, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:17 pm

SageBrush wrote:
golfcart wrote:
WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.

Never is a long time, but since the Federal tax credit drops to $3750 as of Jan 1st you are on safe ground regarding this Model 3 SR iteration ... unless other tax credits come into play. Colorado e.g. has a $5,000 state tax credit, and a handful of other states offer $2,000 - $2,500. And you never know, GM might use its lobbying might to renew the Federal credit.


I wish I had a relative in Colorado...
I could get $12500 off on a EV.

A Leaf S 60 kwh will be under $30K after tax credit. TM3 SR loses in my book.
And Hyundai Kona will beat both of them in terms of value.
2015 Leaf S w/ QC . I have Leaf Spy Pro.

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