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dgpcolorado
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:16 pm

fooljoe wrote:GetOffYourGas summed up my thinking almost perfectly when I was one of the first to reserve a Leaf. The memories of EV-1 crushing were still quite fresh on my mind, and magnified by the release of Who Killed the Electric Car? I was very eager to get the first economical production EV to market, and to actually own it.

Also, with respect to leasing vs. buying, the $199/month deals we see now were not around in 2011, so purchasing was the more economical choice, setting aside the at-the-time-unquantifiable risk that it entailed. And prices didn't come down that fast, as it turned out - they actually went up with the 2012 model, and benefits like free charging stations started to get phased out, and the California rebate went from $5000 to $2500.

And as to that risk, I fully understood at the time that batteries degrade and knew what I was possibly getting myself into, but Nissan made the mistake of making promises, and they got burned for it. I didn't expect to get a free replacement battery, and I'm certainly happy that I will (getting installed right now actually), but I and many others are justifiably upset about how this class action lawsuit and capacity warranty were implemented. We all have the same defective batteries, but only those of us who drove the right amount of miles or parked in hot enough places will see any benefit from it...
My reasons were much the same. I think the latecomers second-guessing the early adopters aren't aware how poor the leasing deals were for the early LEAFs and they can't comprehend that we ordered our cars over the internet and waited and waited and waited for the cars to be built and shipped from Japan. It was a completely different era of LEAF buying.
Phatcat73 wrote:A reason why I purchased over leasing - $3k available state credit on purchases of EV's only. Leasing did not apply.

That was a big factor for me. I got a $5400 state tax credit and it would have been much lower for a leased car.

In addition, I'm on track to be around 80% battery capacity at five years, just like Nissan estimated in the disclosure documents I signed. And the car still has almost as much utility for me as it did when it was new. If I had wanted a cost-effective car I would have bought an inexpensive used car and just driven it to death; buying or leasing ANY new car is a waste of money (by the way, there were no used LEAFs back then). Instead, I had wanted an EV for years and eagerly purchased the first mass market EV when I could, in part to show support for Nissan's EV program in the hope that it would be successful.

Easy to look back with 20:20 hindsight and rag on those of us who purchased our LEAFs. How prescient of those people to now know what fools we were... :roll:
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
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EatsShootsandLeafs
Posts: 430
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am
Delivery Date: 24 Aug 2012

Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:40 am

Leafer77 wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
I never understood why people were buying these things early on. Even best case the batteries would be worthless after 5-10 years, and there was no way to know how much it would cost to replace. Too many unknowns with no upside to purchasing it. With a lease Nissan got hosed on the residual, not the guy who finances.


I'm not going to pretend to speak for everyone, but I will offer one possibility - history. From about 2000 to 2010, there were zero options to buy an EV built by an OEM. If you wanted an EV, you basically had to build it yourself. Prior to 2000, the short wave of EVs were mostly lease-only. At the end of the lease, the cars were taken back (no option to buy) and crushed, much to their owners' dismay. I think in 2010-2012, there was still a lot of wariness that this could happen again, causing many people to buy the car outright. It was anything but given that in 2015, Nissan would still be pushing the envelope with the Leaf and that in 2016, GM would be selling an EV with 200 mile range.

Also, it's worth pointing out that many of those earlier EVs that survived still have a usable original battery. I almost purchased a 2000 Ford Ranger EV myself, with no more than 20% capacity loss. Granted, this was with a NiMH battery and not Lithium, so a completely different beast (NiMH has lower capacity, but better longevity compared to Lithium-anything). But for someone who doesn't understand the differences, I could see why they might expect the battery to last the life of the car. Especially because that's what Nissan was saying.


Before I purchased my 2011 Nissan Leaf. I did research about previous electric cars, went to the events to drive the vehicle, read the literature from Nissan about the cars expected performance, etc. I processed all that information and hypothesized, what is the possible worst case scenario to expect. The manufacturer sticker promised close to 100 miles range. I doubted this estimate myself, and predicted closer to 70 - 75, based on several sources.

My daily commute is 60 miles round trip, and I have the option of charging at work. I figured after 3-5 years, I would likely have to charge at work, in order to make it comfortably back home. Instead I had to start charging at work towards the end of my first year, and about every 6 months after the first year things became progressively worse, since my battery degradation was accelerating and impacting my range. It got to the point where charging to full at work barely was getting me home. In the end, my range was reduced to 40 miles.

Yes, in retrospect my conservative estimate was incorrect. Not because of poor planning or analysis of the information that I had at the time, but because of a defect in the battery I was sold by Nissan. This likely includes several other 2011 batteries.
Based on the numbers you just related I agree, i wouldn't have expected such a terrific drop in range over that short period--even now with what I know about the Leaf it seems terrible.

hobbyguy
Posts: 134
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Leaf Number: 000195
Location: Castaic - Santa Clarita, CA

Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:40 pm

Happy New Year
Last edited by hobbyguy on Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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abasile
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:04 pm

hobbyguy wrote:So in summary, your only chance at any battery claim is the 60,000 mile mark, so keep an eye on your bars folks.

I'm very sorry to hear that your claim was denied! Nissan's treatment of your case is appalling, yet all too typical of many corporations.

Today, our LEAF's mileage is roughly 59,950, with two bars missing and less than four months to go before we reach five years of ownership. So no warranty claim for us. While the range loss is disappointing and it's much tougher to use the car for certain trips, it's still useful for much of our day to day driving, we are in no hurry to spend ~$6K on a new battery pack, and we don't like playing games to force warranty claims. In cases like ours, offering a pro-rated discount on a new battery, when needed, would seem fair. The trouble is, all Nissan EV batteries appear to degrade more rapidly than they initially projected, so the corporation is apparently more focused on stemming losses than on pleasing early adopters.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

Valdemar
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:37 am

Can someone enlighten me what sort of control does BBB have over auto manufacturers? I suspect none and the manufacturer can simply ignore a BBB arbitration decision if it is ruled in favor of the owner with no negative consequences.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB)
59.7AHr, SOH 93%, 118k miles
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RegGuheert
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:49 am

abasile wrote:Today, our LEAF's mileage is roughly 59,950, with two bars missing and less than four months to go before we reach five years of ownership.
You've traveled twice as far with only slightly more degradation (we're at 52.0 Ah). Purchasing the 2011 LEAF battery certainly has been "use it or lose it" proposition.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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abasile
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:47 am

RegGuheert wrote:You've traveled twice as far with only slightly more degradation (we're at 52.0 Ah). Purchasing the 2011 LEAF battery certainly has been "use it or lose it" proposition.

Our cool micro-climate and shaded (majority of the time) outdoor parking has undoubtedly helped, though even our battery degradation has exceeded Nissan's projections. From listening to Jeff Dahn of Dalhousie U. speak on Li-ion battery degradation back in 2013, this in retrospect isn't so surprising. I really feel for LEAF owners who won't be able to get as much use out of the original battery as we are. I anticipate our 2011 battery should continue to provide some value to us for at least another few years. Even if we indeed buy a used Tesla for "primary car" use, it'll be good to have our LEAF as a "beater" EV for some local drives.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:09 pm

abasile wrote:Our cool micro-climate and shaded (majority of the time) outdoor parking has undoubtedly helped, though even our battery degradation has exceeded Nissan's projections. From listening to Jeff Dahn of Dalhousie U. speak on Li-ion battery degradation back in 2013, this in retrospect isn't so surprising. I really feel for LEAF owners who won't be able to get as much use out of the original battery as we are. I anticipate our 2011 battery should continue to provide some value to us for at least another few years. Even if we indeed buy a used Tesla for "primary car" use, it'll be good to have our LEAF as a "beater" EV for some local drives.
I'm a bit higher and cooler than you are, as you know, and I'm tracking pretty closely to the 80% capacity after five years that was in the disclosure that I signed at purchase. It will be interesting if that actually happens!

I'm starting to think about a CPO Model S also, now that prices are finally dropping, but there would be no use in keeping the LEAF if that happens since I'm the only driver, unlike your household. And I couldn't fit both a Model S and LEAF in my garage anyway (and leaving a car outside leads to deer mice and pack rats nesting in it).
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RegGuheert
Posts: 5589
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:49 pm

abasile wrote:I really feel for LEAF owners who won't be able to get as much use out of the original battery as we are. I anticipate our 2011 battery should continue to provide some value to us for at least another few years. Even if we indeed buy a used Tesla for "primary car" use, it'll be good to have our LEAF as a "beater" EV for some local drives.
We've also got a few more years that we can use our LEAF, but some trips are no longer practical. This is true only because we based our purchase on needing a much smaller driving range than Nissan was promising. Some of the trips that we still make are getting more challenging. We saw the turtle for the first time last month and the contactor opened as we drove up the driveway after 72 miles (even with 2 hours of L1 charging at destination). Our nearly-14-year-old Honda Civic Hybrid with original batteries is starting to take over some trips which previously were driven by our nearly-four-year-old LEAF.
dgpcolorado wrote:I'm a bit higher and cooler than you are, as you know, and I'm tracking pretty closely to the 80% capacity after five years that was in the disclosure that I signed at purchase. It will be interesting if that actually happens!
I'm already past 20% capacity loss after only four years and 30,000 miles. (The climate multiplier Stoaty used in the Capacity Loss Estimator is only 0.88 for this area compared with LA.)
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

Valdemar
Posts: 2412
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Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: Early Adopter Mistake - Running on Empty

Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:27 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Purchasing the 2011 LEAF battery certainly has been "use it or lose it" proposition.


Maybe back in 2011, but with the capacity warranty now in place it is more like "use it AND lose it", especially in warmer places.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB)
59.7AHr, SOH 93%, 118k miles
9kW Solar

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