SageBrush
Posts: 859
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 16, 2017 9:17 am

jjeff wrote:
SageBrush wrote:.....In other news, the average transaction price of a car in the US in 2016 was $33k
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... 0sgEdgWyrA

Interesting they actually give Electric Vehicles a seperate line. At $36,644 average, they can't be selling too many $70-100k Teslas.....

I think you mean: kbb cannot be *counting* too many Teslas.

Tesla is not on the list of included manufacturers.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

edatoakrun
Posts: 4443
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 16, 2017 9:24 am

tattoogunman wrote:
RonDawg wrote:
jjeff wrote:IMO there will always be a need for ICE vehicles, just not to the degree we use them now. I mean 95%?? of peoples daily drives are within even the range of the Leaf or other BEVs, use them for that purpose and a ICE for longer trips or when you need 100+ miles at a shot. I suppose the ideal all in one vehicle would be the PHEV with say a 30-50 mile EV only range, EV for 90% of your trips, ICE for the other 10%.


This is where I personally think motoring will go in the future, at least short-term. A battery large enough for the overwhelming majority of your driving needs, but a small engine (perhaps 1 liter displacement or less) for those few times you actually need to go further, or need to charge away from a plug.

You are talking about range extenders and you can already get one (Chevy Volt, BMW i3, etc.)...

No, not really.

Idiotic CARB regulations still require that the generator not be turned on until the battery charge is nearly exhausted, to meet its BEVx classification.

This means the generator has to be over-sized to provide full traction energy to BEV with a depleted pack, and even then may only power the car inadequately in extreme conditions, as is the case with a BMW i3.

This issue has been discussed for many years on this thread:

The “range–extended” EV (BEVx) considered

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:50 am

...I’m still not so ready to totally write off the ICE, as many on this site seem to be.

In fact, a true ICE ”range extender” for a BEV is not a bad Idea, It's just that current designs are all abysmal failures, from the point of energy efficiency and driver utility. Putting an ICE drivetrain in an EV, whether in series, parallel, or any other hybrid configuration, is not advisable, IMO. Invariably, you will get an overweight, overpriced, underperforming vehicle, like the Volt. It seems almost as ridiculous, to install an extremely expensive and heavy large battery pack (like the Tesla S long-range options) which is only occasionally required by the BEV driver.

A functional range extender would consist of:

A small displacement (200-600 CC) ICE generator, run at highest-efficiency rpm, to recharge the battery pack. Generator output would not be sufficient to drive the vehicle, just enough to extend the battery pack range to the next convenient recharge location.

It would not run on gasoline, but a less polluting, and more stable fuel, such as propane (easier refueling) or CNG (lower cost). 5 gallons of Propane, for example, would probably offer about 200 miles of range extention for a LEAF-sized BEV.

The fuel would also be available to a combustion cabin heater, the one use for which battery energy storage is particularly inefficient...


viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6847
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 16, 2017 10:36 am

SageBrush wrote:I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.

Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.

jjeff
Posts: 1363
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:10 am
Delivery Date: 13 Jul 2014
Leaf Number: 422121
Location: MSP MN

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 16, 2017 11:18 am

SageBrush wrote:
jjeff wrote:
SageBrush wrote:.....In other news, the average transaction price of a car in the US in 2016 was $33k
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... 0sgEdgWyrA

Interesting they actually give Electric Vehicles a seperate line. At $36,644 average, they can't be selling too many $70-100k Teslas.....

I think you mean: kbb cannot be *counting* too many Teslas.

Tesla is not on the list of included manufacturers.

:? that would make more sense then. Well not really make sense that they don't include Teslas, at least without a major * stating so, but explains the relativly low average price of a new BEV considering Tesla :)
2012 SL purchased used 2/'16
2013 S w/QC purchased new
Juicebox Premium 60a L1/L2 EVSE, Ebusbar 16a L1/L2 EVSE
'12 EVSEupgrade'd 20a L1/L2 EVSE, '13 EVSEupgrade'd adjustable 6-20a L2, 6-13a L1 EVSE
Zencar 13, 20, 30a L1/L2 portable EVSE
GE Durastation 30a

jjeff
Posts: 1363
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:10 am
Delivery Date: 13 Jul 2014
Leaf Number: 422121
Location: MSP MN

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 16, 2017 11:27 am

hyperionmark wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.

Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.

+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.
2012 SL purchased used 2/'16
2013 S w/QC purchased new
Juicebox Premium 60a L1/L2 EVSE, Ebusbar 16a L1/L2 EVSE
'12 EVSEupgrade'd 20a L1/L2 EVSE, '13 EVSEupgrade'd adjustable 6-20a L2, 6-13a L1 EVSE
Zencar 13, 20, 30a L1/L2 portable EVSE
GE Durastation 30a

User avatar
IssacZachary
Forum Supporter
Posts: 499
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:57 am
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 420789
Location: Gunnison, CO, USA

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Fri May 19, 2017 10:08 pm

Last edited by IssacZachary on Sat May 20, 2017 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 SL 45,000 miles.
12 bars until 44,300 miles on June 2, 2017. :D
11 bars current. :)
The Nissan Leaf is the fourth best long distance car for highway driving. >>Best Long Distance Cars<<

LeftieBiker
Posts: 6563
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Sat May 20, 2017 1:33 am

Let's try this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrQqCLRXl2w


The 'youtube' html doesn't seem to work here. Just highlight links and select "URL".
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Posts: 5817
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Sat May 20, 2017 9:40 am

LeftieBiker wrote:Let's try this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrQqCLRXl2w


The 'youtube' html doesn't seem to work here. Just highlight links and select "URL".



I had one of the first reservations. Too bad the "*&^" that took over the company ran it into the ground, biggest bunch of clowns. Almost seemed intentional. Those who know the Aptera saga and all the details remember it well. Anyone that ever drove the car knew how cool it was at the time.

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Sat May 20, 2017 1:42 pm

jjeff wrote:
hyperionmark wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.

Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.

+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.

Surprised you have to do 5k oil changes. I can go 7.5k on my Nissan Titan. I would think the Prius engine could go 10k or more as it is less stressed and not even running for all those miles. But yeah, it would be hard to get rid of a (probably paid for) efficient/reliable car like that.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

User avatar
IssacZachary
Forum Supporter
Posts: 499
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:57 am
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 420789
Location: Gunnison, CO, USA

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Sat May 20, 2017 1:59 pm

Firetruck41 wrote:
jjeff wrote:+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.

Surprised you have to do 5k oil changes. I can go 7.5k on my Nissan Titan. I would think the Prius engine could go 10k or more as it is less stressed and not even running for all those miles. But yeah, it would be hard to get rid of a (probably paid for) efficient/reliable car like that.

I wonder if car manufacturers don't add more maintenance than necessary to make up for the lack of maintenance these types of cars normally need. For an example, why do Nissan Leafs need so many brake fluid changes? I can't remember the exact numbers but I seem to recall every year. What other car needs brake fluid changes every year?

On the other hand if your like me and have driven family cars with over 300,000 miles on the original engine(Ford Aerostar 300k, Honda Civic 400k and VW Golf 500k) then you know how much those regular oil changes end up paying off in the end.
2013 SL 45,000 miles.
12 bars until 44,300 miles on June 2, 2017. :D
11 bars current. :)
The Nissan Leaf is the fourth best long distance car for highway driving. >>Best Long Distance Cars<<

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