eyedrop
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:46 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Oct 2016
Leaf Number: 312554
Location: Prescott Valley, AZ

Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 02, 2017 9:47 pm

I own a 2015 Leaf S and love it. Its the perfect vehicle for commuting, and is capable of road trips with some extra time and careful planning. It really fits my needs perfectly.

I dont own any gas cars (no need to). However, my workplace has recently given me a driving job where I do 350+ miles a day using their company vehicle. Its a 2016 Ram Promaster city. The thing smells, its loud, vibrates, has no power, and just feels archaic like an old relic.

But one thing that has impressed me is the refueling time. I can do my 350 mile route without having to stop and refuel. And when I do refuel, it only takes a couple minutes. I had forgotten how nice of a luxury it is... The thing gets more range than my leaf on a quarter tank of fuel, and you can basically just wait until the fuel light comes on and your pretty much guaranteed to be close to some sort of gas station, where you can stop for just 5 minutes and go another 400 miles.

Its not so much the range that impresses me. Its more about the refueling time and the sheer number of available stations. Its not often you hear people complain that their new car only gets 200 miles to the tank vs. 300. When you can refuel in 5 minutes, and stations are everywhere, range doesn't really matter that much..

I feel like the range issue with EV's is blown out of proportion. The real issue is recharge time IMO. And to a somewhat lesser degree, a lack of stations...

I understand that some Tesla's can get 300+ miles per charge, which is fantastic. But your still spending atleast an hour at the supercharger just to fill it to 80% charge.

My question is, are there any plans to upgrade these charging networks to provide 5-10 minute fueling times, in line with combustion engines? It seems like as EV's become more popular, there will be a need for not only more charging stations, but faster charge times as well. Even if they come out with 500 mile range EV's, nobody is going to want to sit for hours waiting for a charge. For alot of businesses, time is money. You see long haul truck drivers easily cover 800 miles in a day. Imagine how long it would take to recharge that Tesla semi truck with its massive capacity battery, and how huge and congested the lines would be at the charge stations... I just dont see it working on a mainstream level. We will have to totally upgrade the power grid, which would be a massive undertaking. Everyone would need special breaker boxes and power nodes throughout the city which will cost a fortune and take years to implement. Heck, even a standard L3 DC fast charger costs $100k to install. It takes special permits, special installation and wiring, etc...

There are other great ideas, such as magnetic roads that charge your car as you drive. Or roads with built in solar panels to take pressure off the main grid. But again, your talking big $$$ and lots of time to redo our current infrastructure, which has taken decades for our society to build. Its just not ideal or realistic. There has to be an easier solution...

And as a side question, does anyone have insight on what current prototype/proof of concept battery designs are doing capacity wise? What kind of range will we see in 5-10 years? Maybe it will be possible to eventually far exceed the range that gas powered cars are getting. Pretty much nobody drives more that a 1000 miles in a day before sleeping. So maybe mega range batteries will help solve the recharge time issue in the sense that people shouldn't need to be inconvenienced in their waking hours to charge.

Imagine batteries that could go thousands of miles on a charge. You could basically get away with charging it at home with your 110V any time your not using it, and have such a large reserve that a spontaneous road trip across country would be no issue.

There is also the quick battery swap concept that is genious, but none of the manufacturers seem to want to go that direction for some reason. Its a real shame!
Last edited by eyedrop on Wed May 03, 2017 7:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.

JohnKuthe
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:49 am
Delivery Date: 22 Mar 2017

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Tue May 02, 2017 10:04 pm

eyedrop wrote:I own an MY 2015 Leaf S and love it. Its the perfect vehicle for commuting, and is capable of road trips with some extra time and careful planning. It really fits my needs perfectly.

I dont own any gas cars (no need to). However, my workplace has recently given me a driving job where I do 350+ miles a day using their company vehicle. Its a 2016 Ram Promaster city. The thing smells, its loud, vibrates, has no power, and just feels archaic like an old relic.


Oh heavens yes! I have a 2013 Leaf and also a 2006 Grand Caravan that I drove today for the first time in more than a week, and it's bloody huge and wasteful with insufficient "pickup" compared to the almost instantaneous max torque that electric motors get!

But one thing that has impressed me is the range. I can do my 350 mile route without having to stop and refuel. And when I do refuel, it only takes a couple minutes. I had forgotten how nice of a luxury it is... The thing gets more range than my leaf on a quarter tank of fuel, and you can basically just wait until the fuel light comes on and your pretty much guaranteed to be close to some sort of gas station, where you can stop for just 5 minutes and go another 400 miles.

I understand that some Tesla's can get 300+ miles per charge, which is fantastic. But your still spending atleast an hour at the supercharger just to fill it to 80% charge.


Elon Musk actually demonstrated the battery pack changing for Tesla cars that operates faster than filling the average gas tank!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE81S26XG8c


My question is, are there any plans to upgrade these charging networks to provide 5-10 minute fueling times, in line with combustion engines? It seems like as EV's become more popular, there will be a need for not only more charging stations, but faster charge times as well. Even if they come out with 500 mile range EV's, nobody is going to want to sit for hours waiting for a charge. For alot of businesses, time is money. You see long haul truck drivers easily cover 800 miles in a day. Imagine how long it would take to recharge that Tesla semi truck with its massive capacity battery, and how huge and congested the lines would be at the charge stations... I just dont see it working on a mainstream level. We will have to totally upgrade the power grid, which would be a massive undertaking. Everyone would need special breaker boxes and power nodes throughout the city which will cost a fortune and take years to implement. Heck, even a standard L3 DC fast charger costs $100k to install. It takes special permits, special installation and wiring, etc... There are other ideas, such as magnetic roads that charge your car as you drive. But again, your talking big $$$ and lots of time to redo our current infrastructure,m which has taken decades for our society to build. Its just not ideal or realistic. There has to be an easier solution...

And as a side question, does anyone have insight on what current prototype/proof of concept battery designs are doing capacity wise? What kind of range will we see in 5-10 years? Maybe it will be possible to eventually far exceed the range that gas powered cars are getting. Pretty much nobody drives more that a 1000 miles in a day before sleeping. So maybe mega range batteries will help solve the recharge time issue in the sense that people shouldn't need to be inconvenienced in their waking hours to charge. Imagine batteries that could go thousands of miles without a recharge. You could basically get away with charging it at home with your 110V any time your not using it, and have such a large reserve that a spontaneous road trip across country would be no issue.

There is also the quick battery swap concept that is genious, but none of the manufacturers seem to want to go that direction for some reason. Its a real shame!


Proofs of concept!ome may go into production at different times. The battery pack swaps would require a very standard battery pack to be adopted.

John Kuthe...

cwerdna
Gold Member
Posts: 6640
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Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 12:11 am

JohnKuthe wrote:Proofs of concept!ome may go into production at different times. The battery pack swaps would require a very standard battery pack to be adopted.

As for the bolded part, that's rather unlikely between competing automakers. They can't even agree on a single DC FC standard and plug.

Locking multiple automakers into a specific form factor, capacity, mounting methods, connectors (e.g. for power, signal, cooling lines, etc.), chemistry, discharge curve, communications protocols, etc. for who knows how long isn't really going to fly. Each automaker wants to have a competitive advantage and distinguish their product from the others.

What happens when improved batteries come out or there are future generations? What will the stations need to stock?

There are also huge problems in terms of the economics (e.g. utilization rate, staffing needed, batteries needed to be kept on hand, electricity to charge them, cost of the batteries, etc.), placement of stations and how much could be charged for swapping.

This topic has been discussed extensively either here or on definitely very extensively on "TMC" (e.g. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... hed.16730/ and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ion.18124/).

Tesla's battery swapping experiment is dead. Please see replies at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 47/page-28.

Better Place tried to do battery swapping w/fleets of identical cars. They went bankrupt after blowing thru $800+ million. See viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8040&start=30 and the page that follows.

There was an attempt between Better Place, Coda and FEV to do battery swapping w/Codas and use them as taxis. Well, Coda went BK as well, and it seems we never got any Coda battery swapping taxis: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... xis.10664/.

OTOH, I did physically see these at CES possibly in multiple years: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... s-not-cars. Not sure how these are doing. No special expensive buildings, machinery and "stations" are required. Humans can easily lift those packs (I did).
Last edited by cwerdna on Wed May 03, 2017 2:50 am, edited 5 times in total.

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2k1Toaster
Posts: 392
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:45 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 420903

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 1:16 am

350mi / day routes are not the normal. It is foolish to make 1 vehicle that does every job. For the extremely few people who do 350miles a day, current BEVs and likely no BEV will be a good replacement. Charge time is irrelevant, that's just not what they are meant to do.

My "fill up time" is only counted by the time it takes to plug in at night, and disconnect in the morning. Way faster than a petrol car, and it is always full every morning. Having a fictional battery that goes 2000miles is a waste of resources. If I want to go large distances, I fly. If i have to drive, I use a petrol powered car. I see that as the best solution. BEVs everywhere within town, and dino powered rental vehicles for when you need to go far.

When you are flying in a plane with 140 other people, you are "carpooling" and the resources used per mile are actually pretty favourable and in most cases better than driving comparable distances. Airlines don't fly empty planes anymore, every flight is a full flight. Just makes it better.
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LeftieBiker
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Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 2:45 am

A Prius Prime would probably do ok for that many miles. You'd charge it once a day, and leave it in Hybrid mode, allowing the car to use the extra kwh only as needed. It would probably average about 65MPG per day.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

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jjeff
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Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 7:11 am

IMO there will always be a need for ICE vehicles, just not to the degree we use them now. I mean 95%?? of peoples daily drives are within even the range of the Leaf or other BEVs, use them for that purpose and a ICE for longer trips or when you need 100+ miles at a shot. I suppose the ideal all in one vehicle would be the PHEV with say a 30-50 mile EV only range, EV for 90% of your trips, ICE for the other 10%. Unfortunately there aren't all that many decent options for PHEVs, the new Chrystler Pacifica PHEV is nice but at ~$40K and 30 mile EV range, it's on the spendy side. If Mitsubishi ever gets their act together, their Outlander PHEV might be nice and then theirs the new Prius Prime, low 20s for EV only miles and very good highway mileage, kind of the best of both worlds for a smaller car. Lastly the Volt on paper seems to have most everything, 50+ EV range and decent(although not Prius great) hwy mpg, although it's a rather cramped tight car in most every respect, personally I'd have NO interest in one.
IMO if you need more range than say 100 miles or maybe 200 with some of the new EVs coming down the pike, I'd say to get a decent PHEV, much more practical than carrying around 1000s of pounds of batteries and probably better for the environment in the long run. EVs aren't the end-all, but they do a nice job 95% of the time :)
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eyedrop
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:46 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Oct 2016
Leaf Number: 312554
Location: Prescott Valley, AZ

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 12:49 pm

I wonder whats up with the Tesla semi truck, and how the heck they will be able to pull that one off. The batteries have got to be massive, with a ridiculous recharge time. Maybe they have something new and groundbreaking up their sleeve? Otherwise, I just dont see it happening... Maybe for a daybcab style truck it would work. But long haul? No way...

RonDawg
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Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 3:45 pm

jjeff wrote:IMO there will always be a need for ICE vehicles, just not to the degree we use them now. I mean 95%?? of peoples daily drives are within even the range of the Leaf or other BEVs, use them for that purpose and a ICE for longer trips or when you need 100+ miles at a shot. I suppose the ideal all in one vehicle would be the PHEV with say a 30-50 mile EV only range, EV for 90% of your trips, ICE for the other 10%.



This is where I personally think motoring will go in the future, at least short-term. A battery large enough for the overwhelming majority of your driving needs, but a small engine (perhaps 1 liter displacement or less) for those few times you actually need to go further, or need to charge away from a plug.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar on 11/21/2015 at 26,435 miles.
Lease returned on 12/23/2015. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL

DanCar
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Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 5:15 pm

eyedrop wrote:... batteries have got to be massive, with a ridiculous recharge time...
The batteries are just a combination of smaller batteries. There is no reason you can't just break the problem down to smaller pieces. With multiple charge cords it will charge just as fast as today's batteries or faster if they decide to increase the voltage or amperage.

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Future EV predictions, anyone?

Wed May 03, 2017 5:20 pm

DanCar wrote:
eyedrop wrote:... batteries have got to be massive, with a ridiculous recharge time...
The batteries are just a combination of smaller batteries. There is no reason you can't just break the problem down to smaller pieces. With multiple charge cords it will charge just as fast as today's batteries or faster if they decide to increase the voltage or amperage.


This gives me an image of a Tesla Semi pulling into a Supercharging station and plugging every single cord into his truck. Like a mother pig feeding her young, only in reverse.

:lol:
~Brian

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