mxp
Posts: 734
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Location: Fremont, CA

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:55 pm

YGM.

But I am not sure if another service advisor will be able to give you any advice on how to deal with your own local dealership rep. No harm in just having a conversation...

IIRC, when he was previously processing my 80/20 paperwork for Nissan, my local service rep makes references to "NRS". I can only guess it means Nissan Regional Support. I think NRS will be different for all parts of the USA. Good luck anyways.

garsh wrote:
mxp wrote:If only you were here in the SF Bay Area, I would have directed you to my local service advisor whom I have worked with in getting both our 2011 Leafs replaced on 80/20 split. One caveat, I did have ALL my battery checks done (regardless how silly it was) and this was a key factor.
It's worth a shot. I've had my battery checks done each year, and they've always given me a 5-star report. We'll see if that's worth anything. I need to stop by my dealer tonight anyhow - I'm dropping off the Leaf to get a new inspection sticker (just had to have the windshield replaced due to a crack) and a brake fluid flush (it's been 86,000 miles - I think it's due now).

Is there any chance you can send me the name & number of your service advisor? If the dealership is willing to work as my advocate, maybe they can give my guy some advice for dealing with Nissan corporate.

webb14leafs
Posts: 146
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Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:02 am

SageBrush wrote:
cwerdna wrote:
SageBrush wrote:consider what it costs just in carrying charges to build out a Supercharger network, a Gigafactory, and a massive overhaul of a car factory to support 10x production.

But all of that is from cash and their depreciation is spread out over tim1.e as part of cost of automotive revenues.

Per http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605
Cost of automotive revenue includes direct parts, material and labor costs, manufacturing overhead, including depreciation costs of tooling and machinery, shipping and logistic costs, vehicle connectivity costs, allocations of electricity and infrastructure costs related to our Supercharger network and reserves for estimated warranty expenses. Cost of automotive revenue also includes adjustments to warranty expense and charges to write-down the carrying value of our inventory when it exceeds its estimated net realizable value and to provide for obsolete or excess inventory.

Those things I quoted aren't a big part of what's causing Tesla to be not profitable because they're already part of the ">20% profit" on each Model S webb14leafs alluded to. Interest expense is also listed in the above SEC filing.

If you quote specifics from the filing, we will at least be talking about the same thing. E.g.,

Total Automotive revenue: 2.289B
Total Automotive Cost of revenues: 1.662B

That works out to ~ 37% margin on cars. If and when Tesla sells 500k cars a year their filing is going to look golden.... until they take their mountain of cash and build more factories.


Have you seen what the margins on the Model 3 are expected to be? I'm sure it will vary wildly between the stock model and the fully upgraded models. I haven't seen anything though. My assumption is that they will initially take a loss on the stock model, with hopes to eventually make a profit on it.

One note on their earnings (I know it's off topic) is the realization that they only have enough cash to get through a couple more quarters at their current burn rate. Granted, their burn rate will decrease substantially once they get production stabilized, and they'll start making some money off of sales. The concerning thing is how long will it take them to shore up enough cash to design and build a new model - which they desparately need. I suppose if the Model 3 sells well investors will line up to give them cash, but it was still a concerning item.

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:28 am

webb14leafs wrote:Have you seen what the margins on the Model 3 are expected to be?

25%, per yesterday's Q3 financials call.
Elon said yesterday that they do not have large CapEx expenditures coming up through the next 12 months, so the current delay in the Model 3 ramp is not hobbled by cash flow. As soon as the ramp is clearly on the rapid upswing, this talk of a cash crunch will go away from the combination of revenue and confidence in the company by lenders if Tesla wants to borrow more money.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

powersurge
Posts: 768
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Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:38 am

Regarding the original poster.. We do not know the year of the Leaf.. 2011-12? What warrantee just expired? In end of 2017, the end of the three year warrantee would have started in the end of 2014...

If a 2011 or 2012 has been sitting around for 6-7 years and has only 34K miles, you cannot expect a new battery. First, on a battery product, the amount of use does not determine battery life... The amount of time in service is the true factor. Also, not using a battery, and leaving the battery at a high or low rate of charge will also kill the battery. fair is fair.

Regarding Tesla and profits.. Tesla will never be profitable, as some posters say, even if they make a good profit, that profit will be eaten up by building more infrastructure factories and suppliers. I am not an expert in the Tesla "experience", but I cannot see Tesla staying in business more than 4-5 years. A small company like that, and their "exclusive luxury product" a is low volume, high short-term profit product model. What will kill Tesla is 1) being able to mass produce cars in high numbers, 2) Handling "RECALLS" and poor quality and fit and finish issues on previously sold cars (which YouTube is full of), 3) Having an exclusive repair monopoly on mechanical repairs AND only doing body work with "authorized" body repair companies. (I have seen a small dent on a Tesla rear quarter panel cost $34,000 to repair), and finally, 4) manufacturing and stocking spare parts on the entire line of previously sold cars. I have heard that a guy with a windshield defect could not get a replacement windshield for a LONG time... Only available directly from Tesla.

cwerdna
Gold Member
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Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:42 am

SageBrush wrote:http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

The short range EVs (and the Bolt!) are leasing for under $6k for 3 years. I paid $8300 for my off-lease car to a dealer. He told me (after the sale) that he picks them up for under $6k a car. I know that Nissan pockets the tax incentive(s), but that does not come even close to making this a profitable car for Nissan. The CARB credit is a good point -- do you know how much it is worth ?

You have an S trim. I had an SV with both packages. I now have an SV w/premium (which my used car dealer won at auction for $8K + $325 auction fee in July 2015). Values change over time, as well.

Given that it seems used Leaf values and prices have gone up, it seems that Nissan... errr... or an invisible hand has been able to stem the supply of Leafs on the auction market. Some of them seem to have been shipped out of the US.

Just because used values can be or are crap here doesn't mean that it's universal. In some other parts of the world, Nissan did offer the choice of leasing the battery (e.g. https://web.archive.org/web/20161228222 ... tions.html).

As for ZEV credit values, I've not found definitive answers. It seems to vary over time and has gone down, over time. There also need to be buyers of them.
Last edited by cwerdna on Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

'13 blue Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 blue Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

cwerdna
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Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:49 am

powersurge wrote:I cannot see Tesla staying in business more than 4-5 years. A small company like that, and their "exclusive luxury product" a is low volume, high short-term profit product model.

That's an interesting prediction. Let's see if they go under by the end of 2022.

FWIW, per https://www.tesla.com/about, they were founded in 2003. As for "high short-term profit product model", heh, they've had what 2 profitable quarters ever and now they've had accumulated net losses of over $3.8 billion now?

SageBrush wrote:Elon said yesterday that they do not have large CapEx expenditures coming up through the next 12 month...

Uhhh, the Q3 2017 shareholders letter at http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-3Q.pdf says
Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in Q3. The majority of capital expenditures were attributable to Model 3 and Gigafactory 1
production capacity increases...

Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $1 billion in Q4, driven largely by milestone payments on Model 3 production equipment, as well as Gigafactory 1, and further expansion of stores, service centers, delivery hubs and the Supercharger network.

'13 blue Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 blue Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

topaz420
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:49 am

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:11 am

I got a Consumer Affairs agent to escalate me--they were supposed to call by EOD 10/31/17 but haven't reached out yet

Based on replies, looks like my next best move is BBB complaint?

SageBrush
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:18 am

cwerdna wrote:
powersurge wrote:I cannot see Tesla staying in business more than 4-5 years. A small company like that, and their "exclusive luxury product" a is low volume, high short-term profit product model.

That's an interesting prediction. Let's see if they go under by the end of 2022.

FWIW, per https://www.tesla.com/about, they were founded in 2003. As for "high short-term profit product model", heh, they've had what 2 profitable quarters ever and now they've had accumulated net losses of over $3.8 billion now?

SageBrush wrote:Elon said yesterday that they do not have large CapEx expenditures coming up through the next 12 month...

Uhhh, the Q3 2017 shareholders letter at http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-3Q.pdf says
Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in Q3. The majority of capital expenditures were attributable to Model 3 and Gigafactory 1
production capacity increases...

Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $1 billion in Q4, driven largely by milestone payments on Model 3 production equipment, as well as Gigafactory 1, and further expansion of stores, service centers, delivery hubs and the Supercharger network.


Right. $1B in a quarter is peanuts :mrgreen:
Elon was talking about expansion plans.
IIRC Tesla has about $3B in reserves, so they better have the Model 3 ramp on display within two months or so or Tesla will be looking for cash from a vulnerable position.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

topaz420
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:49 am

Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:38 am

"Escalation" line was just the EV 877-line all over again, repeating the same thing, that it's a "hard no" and that there's no one to speak to any higher than them

I guess BBB is my next (last?) resort

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Good Will Program over--Lost 4th bar 10 days after warranty expired, Nissan: 'too bad'

Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:02 am

topaz420 wrote:I guess BBB is my next (last?) resort

I suggest an unemotional factual account of your experience posted to Nissan's Facebook pages... over and over and over...
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue

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