There is already a lot of speculation that the profit margins on various of these cars is either negative or very thin. I don't want to raise that debate in this thread, and I know it depends on how the accounting is done, ZEV credits, etc. But the point is that there is only so much that a manufacturer is going to be able to do on the price lowering side before it is just not worth it to make the cars anymore. I doubt all the affected models can absorb the full $7500 loss that way. I think there will be a combination of price reductions (or various kinds of discounting), consumers paying more, lower sales volumes and some models being dropped.
Or of course there could be some other market disruption that might offset the tax credit issue, such as ZEV credits becoming more valuable (unlikely) or a breakthrough in the cost of batteries, etc.
The repeal of the credit could actually be seen as a good thing from the perspective of the companies who would have run out earliest. This would prevent that scenario where they have to compete against other makers who have up to a $7500 price advantage due to still having unexpired credits.
Also remember that there are two Republican senators from South Carolina where BMW assembles vehicles and two Republican senators from Tennessee where Nissan assembles its vehicles. Given the financial interest of Nissan and BMW in preserving the credit, the fact that Republicans can only afford to lose two votes, and the fact the credit isn't a big line item, I'm thinking the chances of the credit surviving are fairly high.
59,991 miles/12 bars/289 Gids/68.54 AHr/101% SOH/101.64% Hx 7May15 w/ new Lizard (barely made the warranty).
71,770 miles/12 bars/256 Gids/59.04 AHr/88% SOH/87.92% Hx 3Mar16 at lease return.
Now driving a 2019 Tesla Model 3.