cmwade77
Posts: 129
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2017

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:06 am

RonDawg wrote:
cmwade77 wrote:Umm, where do you live that gas prices are low? I can't get gas anywhere near me for less than $3.00 a gallon, I do not call that low by any standard.


$3.00/gallon is expensive by US standards today, but again isn't exactly dissuading some Californians from buying bro-dozers. Even in this state, with rare exceptions like the Prius, smaller high-MPG cars don't sell as well as larger and more thirsty models. GM and Ford sell far more light duty pickups than compacts. Ford just discontinued the Fiesta here in the US because sales just don't support continuing to sell it here. Even Toyota sells more Camrys than Corollas year after year.

And it's low compared to what we were paying 10 years ago, when some gas stations had $5+/gallon pricing. According to https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/driving ... e-50s.html, gasoline in 1956 was an average of 30 cents/gallon. That's worth $2.77 in today's money....California is more expensive, but not that much more expensive. A quick Google search shows the average price right now is around $2.53 for regular. So as a country, we're paying less than we did 62 years ago.

And remember that's an average of the entire country. When some parts of Oregon finally got self-serve gas, a popular meme being distributed shows a clip from Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds" of a gas station exploding; the prices that were posted were in the mid 30 cent range. The scene was filmed in Marin County, so that's likely what prices were in that area at that time.

Honestly, the lowest right now anywhere near me is $3.09 a gallon, not cheap at all. But even $2.53 a gallon is expensive compared to an EV, especially when you live near free EVSEs. I usually spend around $15 a month to charge and I drive about 1,500 miles a month. That works out to about $0.001 per mile. Now, add in the fact that I bought my Leaf used for about $6,000, I got a brand new battery in December under the capacity warranty. So I should easily get 100,000 miles out of that $6,000, so that adds $0.06 per mile to the cost. Add in tires and minor maintenance at around $0.005 per mile (assuming 70,000 miles on the tires) and total cost of ownership breaks down to about $0.066 cents per mile.

Figure on average vehicles get about 26 MPG at present, at $2.53 a gallon, that means they cost $0.0973 per mile just for gas, add in tires at $0.004 per mile, maintenance at $0.01 per mile for oil changes, tune ups, etc. and the cost of the vehicle, even used, you are usually looking at around $12,000 and it will get you probably about 60,000 miles before needing major mechanical repairs to the point that it is better to replace it, so that adds in about $0.20 per mile. Add in some minor mechanical repairs that the Leaf and other EVs won't generally have and if they do, definitely not as often and you add about another $0.05 per mile for a grand total of about $0.3613 per mile driven and this is on the cheap end, consider that AAA and the Federal government estimate the costs over $0.50 per mile driven on this one.

I dare you to find me ANY other type of vehicle that can come anywhere close to $0.066 per mile for total cost of ownership, including the cost of the vehicle. Now, let's say that you have to pay for your electricity for every single charge and you are in the expensive area that I am where it will run you $0.18/kWh. At about 4 miles per kWh, that breaks down to $0.045 per mile instead of $0.001, making total cost of ownership about $0.11 per mile.

Now, just a quick note, these numbers do not include cost of insurance, as the cost is about the same on both types of vehicles if you shop around. Literally the difference was about actually about $10 cheaper for the EV for us than our old gas car.

TheLostPetrol
Posts: 46
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 21 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 307105
Location: Greater Chicagoland

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:43 pm

cmwade77 wrote:...when you live near free EVSEs. I usually spend around $15 a month to charge and I drive about 1,500 miles a month. That works out to about $0.001 per mile. ...

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that's closer to $0.01 per mile. And without the free EVSEs would it be $0.02/mi or so? [$0.10/kWh / (5.0 mi/kWh)]
2017-12-16 New Prius Prime
2018-02-21 Used pearl white 2015 LEAF SV Mfd 2014-07 In-service 2015-02-27
2018-02-21 26,938 mi AHr=60.22 SOH=96.98% Hx=90.73% 1 QC 988 L1/L2
2018-07-01 31,601 mi AHr=58.05 SOH=93.48% Hx=87.03% 11 QC 1223 L1/L2

RonDawg
Posts: 2825
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:46 am
Delivery Date: 11 Jan 2013
Leaf Number: 027089
Location: SoCal

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:17 pm

cmwade77 wrote:Honestly, the lowest right now anywhere near me is $3.09 a gallon, not cheap at all. But even $2.53 a gallon is expensive compared to an EV, especially when you live near free EVSEs.


I'm sure folks who live in Europe will disagree with your notion of "expensive" gasoline.

Again, EV's are fighting an uphill battle. MSRP's are higher than an equivalent ICEV even when you figure in government incentives. If it weren't for manufacturer-subsidized leases, sales numbers will be even smaller than they are.

Again look at the sales figures for manufacturers who have pure EVs in their lineup: which sells better, the EV or the gas guzzling pickup or SUV? Whether or not you think gas is "expensive" right now, apparently lots of Americans disagree with you, based on their automotive purchasing choices. Nissan sold a bit over 11k Leafs in 2017, but sold nearly 36k Titan pickups that get just 15 MPG City in just the first 9 months: http://www.thedrive.com/news/15541/niss ... -last-year And as mentioned in the article, those sales numbers don't even come close to touching that of the Ford F-150.

My EV costs me around $40 to drive 1,000 miles. If I drove a car that got 40 MPG Combined, my cost at your $3.09/gallon figure is now $77.25. So while it's almost twice as expensive, with the ICEV I don't have range anxiety worries. Some folks spend the difference or more to feed their caffeine addictions, so it's not a big difference in practical terms. I have a second car, an ICEV, so I don't have range anxiety at all, but not everybody can afford to have two cars. Oh and BTW that second car is a 2017 whose insurance premium is actually LESS than that of my 2015 EV. So whatever fuel savings I get from driving an EV are eaten up in higher insurance.

And there is NO way I would rely on free charging as my main charging source. Too many of them are hogged by people. And most for-pay charging solutions in my area cost more per kWH than what I am paying at home, sometimes MUCH more.

So again my point is: take away solo HOV access, and watch sales figures for non-Tesla EV's plummet in California.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

cmwade77
Posts: 129
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2017

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:19 pm

TheLostPetrol wrote:
cmwade77 wrote:...when you live near free EVSEs. I usually spend around $15 a month to charge and I drive about 1,500 miles a month. That works out to about $0.001 per mile. ...

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that's closer to $0.01 per mile. And without the free EVSEs would it be $0.02/mi or so? [$0.10/kWh / (5.0 mi/kWh)]

Yes, that's what I get for trying to do the math quickly, but our electric rate at home is $0.18/kWh, expensive, I know, but that is SCE and that's the discounted rate for us. And I based it off 4 mi/kWh, as that seems closer to average. Hence the $0.045 per mile number, I wish we could convince SCE to bring our rates down, around us only commercial businesses get that low of a rate. But the point remains that no mater what an EV is a lot cheaper than an ICE vehicle to operate.

cmwade77
Posts: 129
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2017

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:36 pm

RonDawg wrote:
cmwade77 wrote:Honestly, the lowest right now anywhere near me is $3.09 a gallon, not cheap at all. But even $2.53 a gallon is expensive compared to an EV, especially when you live near free EVSEs.


I'm sure folks who live in Europe will disagree with your notion of "expensive" gasoline.

Again, EV's are fighting an uphill battle. MSRP's are higher than an equivalent ICEV even when you figure in government incentives. If it weren't for manufacturer-subsidized leases, sales numbers will be even smaller than they are.

Again look at the sales figures for manufacturers who have pure EVs in their lineup: which sells better, the EV or the gas guzzling pickup or SUV? Whether or not you think gas is "expensive" right now, apparently lots of Americans disagree with you, based on their automotive purchasing choices. Nissan sold a bit over 11k Leafs in 2017, but sold nearly 36k Titan pickups that get just 15 MPG City in just the first 9 months: http://www.thedrive.com/news/15541/niss ... -last-year And as mentioned in the article, those sales numbers don't even come close to touching that of the Ford F-150.

My EV costs me around $40 to drive 1,000 miles. If I drove a car that got 40 MPG Combined, my cost at your $3.09/gallon figure is now $77.25. So while it's almost twice as expensive, with the ICEV I don't have range anxiety worries. Some folks spend the difference or more to feed their caffeine addictions, so it's not a big difference in practical terms. I have a second car, an ICEV, so I don't have range anxiety at all, but not everybody can afford to have two cars. Oh and BTW that second car is a 2017 whose insurance premium is actually LESS than that of my 2015 EV. So whatever fuel savings I get from driving an EV are eaten up in higher insurance.

And there is NO way I would rely on free charging as my main charging source. Too many of them are hogged by people. And most for-pay charging solutions in my area cost more per kWH than what I am paying at home, sometimes MUCH more.

So again my point is: take away solo HOV access, and watch sales figures for non-Tesla EV's plummet in California.

Well, first off they aren't taking away carpool lane access, they are changing it so you basically get three full years and a partial year, which means sales will go through the roof in January of each year now.

Honestly, I wouldn't buy a new vehicle, either ICE or EV and used EVs are an even better deal than used ICE vehicles.

As someone who grew up with gas that was always under $1 a gallon, yes, I do consider current prices to be very high.

As for relying on free charging, there are actually quite a few of us in my area that rely on it and for the most part we all watch out for one another by plugging each other in when we are done, etc. Yes, there are always those couple of jerks that don't do the right thing, but they are minimal. Even the drivers of VWs that lock the charger to the car no matter what will leave their car in such a manner that those of us in the know can unlock it. Yes, we use free charging as our primary charging source and then use paid chargers as a backup. EvGo's new plan puts it just a little above what I can get at home, but I have no way to charge at home at all due to how old the wiring in our apartment is. Yes, I could pay to have it upgraded, but I don't see the point when I have so many charging options available near me. There are several other chargepoint and greenlots that charge $0.17/kWh. I will end up having to wait 30 minutes for a charger once every 3 months or so.

As for range anxiety, if you live anywhere in Southern California you rarely more than 10 miles away from at least a Level 2 charger. The excepti9n to this is near Magic Mountain for some reason there aren't many chargers up that direction. Seriously, I do trips from Long Beach to San Diego fairly frequently. Depending on how much of a charge I started with and exactly where i am going, I may have to stop once to charge along the way, but that usually works out to about where my wife needs to stop and use the restroom anyway and so we go where there is a quick charger.

As for people buying gas guzzlers, it isn't that they want gas guzzlers, it is because they need larger vehicles for whatever reasons, i.e. larger families, etc. EV manufacturers need to step up in the U.S. and fill this need.

I will also say this, it is the smart consumer that buys an EV in the next year or two, as we will likely be seeing has over $5 a gallon by 2020.

cwerdna
Posts: 8081
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:48 pm

cmwade77 wrote:As for people buying gas guzzlers, it isn't that they want gas guzzlers, it is because they need larger vehicles for whatever reasons, i.e. larger families, etc. EV manufacturers need to step up in the U.S. and fill this need.

I will also say this, it is the smart consumer that buys an EV in the next year or two, as we will likely be seeing has over $5 a gallon by 2020.

Often people buying guzzlers don't care about gas mileage and all the other side effects of ridiculous fuel consumption. Most of them have no actual need probably 80 to 90% of the time. And, some of them are likely terrible w/finances and not realize that impact to their pocketbook.

As I've posted about many times like at viewtopic.php?p=469677#p469677
cwerdna wrote:I've visited Japan 5x and spend ~3 weeks in Europe. Battering ram of death class guzzler SUVs (e.g. size and weight of guzzlers like Tahoes, Suburbans, Expeditions, Escalades, Navigators, etc.) are virtually unseen on those roads. In comparison, come to my neighborhood and watch the insane # of those pull into and out of the supermarket parking lot, almost always been driven solo and/or w/minimal cargo and passengers.

Over there, I also pointed to figures about how little savings many Americans have.

viewtopic.php?p=257013#p257013 was my post from 2013 about the BRoD phenomna.

And, the amount of needless idling some folks (in non-EVs, non-hybrids and anything WITHOUT auto start-stop systems) do at say In-N-Out Burger drive thru I've also posted about at viewtopic.php?p=416314#p416314 and viewtopic.php?p=398018#p398018 is crazy.

'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

cmwade77
Posts: 129
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2017

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:52 pm

There is a lot of truth here as well, especially for those that buy trucks, but there are many that buy Subs and Minivans because they have a familynof 6 or 7 people. This is something that EV manufacturers have failed to address in an affordable manner.

RonDawg
Posts: 2825
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:46 am
Delivery Date: 11 Jan 2013
Leaf Number: 027089
Location: SoCal

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:54 am

cmwade77 wrote:Well, first off they aren't taking away carpool lane access, they are changing it so you basically get three full years and a partial year, which means sales will go through the roof in January of each year now.


But if they DID take away access, sales will fall if EV prices remain at current levels. Oh and BTW unless the Federal Government acts to extend it, solo HOV access ends in 2025 for everybody.

As someone who grew up with gas that was always under $1 a gallon, yes, I do consider current prices to be very high.


I'm old enough to have experienced not one but TWO energy crises: the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, and the one in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution. For the former, I remember getting up well before the sun to keep my father company while he sat in line to fill up his gas-guzzling Plymouth station wagon. Granted, I ended up going back to sleep while in the car. For the latter, there was (and still is) a gas station near my junior high school and I recall the long lines that snaked out of there past my school which was two blocks away.

Remember too that while gas may have been <$1/gallon, wages were correspondingly low too. $20 bought a lot more in 1973 than it does now; today you'd need over $116 to have the same purchasing power. It's called inflation, and the 1970's were particularly known for it in the US.

As for relying on free charging, there are actually quite a few of us in my area that rely on it and for the most part we all watch out for one another by plugging each other in when we are done, etc. Yes, there are always those couple of jerks that don't do the right thing, but they are minimal. Even the drivers of VWs that lock the charger to the car no matter what will leave their car in such a manner that those of us in the know can unlock it. Yes, we use free charging as our primary charging source and then use paid chargers as a backup. EvGo's new plan puts it just a little above what I can get at home, but I have no way to charge at home at all due to how old the wiring in our apartment is. Yes, I could pay to have it upgraded, but I don't see the point when I have so many charging options available near me. There are several other chargepoint and greenlots that charge $0.17/kWh. I will end up having to wait 30 minutes for a charger once every 3 months or so.


I'm glad to hear that you find it easy in your neighborhood, but that's not universal. The free EVSE's at Whole Foods near my work for example are almost always occupied whenever I drive by. And 17 cents/kWH is what I pay at home, but I don't have to wait to use it and it won't be ICED.

As for people buying gas guzzlers, it isn't that they want gas guzzlers, it is because they need larger vehicles for whatever reasons, i.e. larger families, etc.


Sorry, but that's a crock. I see too many pickups out there hauling nothing but air, and their beds are way too pristine to have been used on a regular basis. I rarely see a large SUV with all 3 rows occupied. People buy them as status symbols.

I will also say this, it is the smart consumer that buys an EV in the next year or two, as we will likely be seeing has over $5 a gallon by 2020.


I thought we'd be back to $5/gallon a gas by now, but so far that hasn't happened. But Americans have short memories; the last time gas was that expensive was 10 years ago, and it contributed if not led to the real estate collapse.

cmwade77 wrote:There is a lot of truth here as well, especially for those that buy trucks, but there are many that buy Subs and Minivans because they have a familynof 6 or 7 people. This is something that EV manufacturers have failed to address in an affordable manner.


Minivans tend to be used more closely to their design specs, but that's largely due to the fact that minivans are considered un-cool, so almost everybody who buys one has a real need for it.

I will agree that the EV market needs to start building more plug-in minivans.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

Garba
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:38 am
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2015
Location: Santa Clara, CA

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:52 am

Like a lot of people, I will be in same boat where I will lose access to HOV lane on Jan 1, 2019. Does anyone know if 2019 Leaf will be around by that time, so 2018 becomes cheaper to lease/buy?

Currently the total cost of lease for 2018 leaf in California seems to be too high around $12K for 36 months and 36Kmiles (I don't think I am eligible for CVRP rebate).
Santa Clara, CA
2015 Leaf S

mihird
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:48 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Mar 2013
Location: East Bay CA

Re: CA HOV Stickers Expiring Year End?

Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:09 pm

I have a 2015 & a 2016 Leaf in the household....slated to lose access on both cars on Jan 1, 2019 :)

Can't wait for 2018 Leaf prices to drop a bit...why are 2018 Leaf lease prices so comparable to the Chevy Bolt? I would guess, a 150 mile range Leaf should come to at least $50/month cheaper to lease than a 238 mile range Bolt.
1st Leaf : 2013 SV (2013-2016) acquired - Feb 2013 (Slate Grey)
2nd Leaf : 2016 SV (2016-?) acquired - Jan 2016 (Electric Blue)
3rd Leaf : 2015 SV (2016-2018) - acquired - Jun 2016 (Black)
4th Leaf : 2018 SV (2018-?) acquired - Jun 2018 (Scarlet Ember)

Return to “General / Main Owners Forum”