SageBrush
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 10:17 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote: Unlike stockpiling parts packs don't have a shelf life. Should be interesting to see how they handle that.

Yup.

This is actually why I am skeptical of the entire idea of buying a replacement pack aside from cost.
@DaveInOly likes to say that packs are a JIT production item but is that really true, and even if true in the past, will it be true here on out ?

Only the new owners of the battery plant know for sure.


Made no such claim. Cells are produced in batches that takes SEVERAL weeks to complete before the assembly process can begin. This is the likely reason for the "4-8 week" delivery window for pack replacements where we see anywhere from a few days to 2 months. It all depends on where the next batch is in the process.

Cells will be using the most recent chemistry but are still different in build, layering, etc. than current cells by default.

+/- a couple of weeks is JIT so far as I am concerned.

So, same question: how do you know the cells are only (up to) a few weeks old ?
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 12:00 pm

SageBrush wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Yup.

This is actually why I am skeptical of the entire idea of buying a replacement pack aside from cost.
@DaveInOly likes to say that packs are a JIT production item but is that really true, and even if true in the past, will it be true here on out ?

Only the new owners of the battery plant know for sure.


Made no such claim. Cells are produced in batches that takes SEVERAL weeks to complete before the assembly process can begin. This is the likely reason for the "4-8 week" delivery window for pack replacements where we see anywhere from a few days to 2 months. It all depends on where the next batch is in the process.

Cells will be using the most recent chemistry but are still different in build, layering, etc. than current cells by default.

+/- a couple of weeks is JIT so far as I am concerned.

So, same question: how do you know the cells are only (up to) a few weeks old ?


Since I have made no such claim, I don't know. Again; cells are processed in batches eventually being part of whatever size pack they see fit to build. Due to some 3 day turnarounds on pack replacements, they are obviously NOT built to order.

So this means some packs will be fresh off the assembly line and some won't. How old will they be? who knows but doubting they would be much over a few months if that and with proper storage, the time wouldn't be a factor anyway.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 1:29 pm

Do you know when a pack was assembled, or do you know how to tell when a pack is assembled ?
Last edited by SageBrush on Sat May 26, 2018 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 1:35 pm

SageBrush wrote:Do you know when a pack was assembled ?


No. guessing they just build batches based on estimated demand. with the "up to 8 weeks" disclaimer, they cover their bases.

Report of someone who took car to dealership on Monday, got new pack yesterday.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 2:28 pm

Ok, lets summarize:

You do not know how old the cells in a pack are,
And you do not know when the pack was assembled.

But you are sure that shelf life is not an issue.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 2:39 pm

SageBrush wrote:Ok, lets summarize:

You do not know how old the cells in a pack are,
And you do not know when the pack was assembled.

But you are sure that shelf life is not an issue.


Li packs stored in optimum conditions lose what? less than 1% per year, right?

But we are primarily talking about cells in a highly controlled environment. I will check around but seems to me I remember being told that cells can sit for 2 years or so without "any" degradation in storage. So what stops Nissan from creating big batches? Well, its like any other long term tool. Why put XXX away and possibly risk not using some of it when you could put away X and have the high likelihood of using all of it?
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 3:44 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Ok, lets summarize:

You do not know how old the cells in a pack are,
And you do not know when the pack was assembled.

But you are sure that shelf life is not an issue.


Li packs stored in optimum conditions lose what? less than 1% per year, right?

I have no idea how these cells/packs are stored, but below is the opinion of battery U
http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_prolong_lithium_based_batteries of shelf life capacity loss for Li-x:

Image

As an aside, I read the third row and think "Phoenix."
Last edited by SageBrush on Sat May 26, 2018 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 3:54 pm

SageBrush wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Ok, lets summarize:

You do not know how old the cells in a pack are,
And you do not know when the pack was assembled.

But you are sure that shelf life is not an issue.


Li packs stored in optimum conditions lose what? less than 1% per year, right?

I have no idea how these cells/packs are stored, but below is the opinion of battery U of shelf life capacity loss for Li-x:

Image

As an aside, I read the third row and think "Phoenix."



:P Yeah, Phoenix really should be row 3½
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat May 26, 2018 4:03 pm

Just a thought --
I'm still unsure why Nissan jacked up the price of the replacement pack but perhaps shelf life is the answer:

A warranty replacement can supply a pack with some shelf life degradation and be adequate for customer satisfaction but it would be (rightly) criticized if sold as a replacement pack. So perhaps bought replacement packs really are "one off" items that would be more expensive now that Nissan has moved on to other packs and other vendors.

This general notion that replacement packs are going to be good value has always been suspect in my mind and I think Nissan has just provided the first proof of my skepticism. Nissan can change its motto to:

"Pay a little less now, and a lot more later."

This is not a business strategy, but a side-effect of using tech with poor battery longevity.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

techiefan
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 2:22 am
Delivery Date: 27 May 2018
Leaf Number: 304600

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sun May 27, 2018 3:35 am

Just leads to third party options in the long run, if I had the knowledge, resources and finances I would open an EV battery business. Pricing is key but if you can offer longer range, faster charing etc etc they would fly off the shelves. Now I understand that if it's not a Nissan offering one could cause warranty issues so ideally one would replace after that has expired and they are faced with a battery replacement.

Return to “General / Main Owners Forum”