SageBrush
Posts: 4581
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 10:09 pm

91040 wrote:@peted
Regarding the capacity loss mentioned in your first post, and in case you are not aware of the following:
The capacity bars for the 2011 & 2012 model Leafs were not linear. The top bar represented 15% capacity while each of the others represented 6.25%.* I think that this was the same for the 2013 model. Hopefully, your car’s battery capacity is not dropping as fast as you thought.

*I know that doesn’t add up to 100% but that is what the original service manual listed.
IIRC the last bar is 15% also

15*2 + 6.25*10
I'm not sure about the missing 7.5%. Perhaps that is the unusable amount to prevent battery bricking.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Lothsahn
Posts: 404
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:35 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2018
Leaf Number: 007797

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed May 08, 2019 10:11 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Lothsahn wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
$9,000 / 24 kWh = $375 a kWh pack price. Tesla is at somewhere in the range of $125 - $150 / kWh pack price.
Is this price for Tesla to build or to consumer? How much is a 60 or 100 kWh pack replacement from Tesla?
That is the price for Tesla to build. This would be an apples to oranges comparison if not for Nissan saying that the retail price is their cost.
Where did Nissan say the $9,000 was their cost? Firstly, you rounded up and included installation and shipping. I recall an article years ago saying that they weren't making money on $5,500 (installed), and prices of battery production have gone down since then.
SageBrush wrote: Regarding the powerwall -- that device has cooling, electronics, integration and an inverter in addition to the battery. Oh ... and Tesla profit too.
Yeah, and the battery has a BMS, heater, and other electronics too... and Nissan profit too, I bet. Powerwall, like many announced Tesla products, is almost impossible to get. Tesla is so constrained on cell production that they're not selling many powerwalls. It's all going to cars and utility storage.

Perhaps you would like to consider a RESU10H which doesn't have an inverter? Those can be had immediately for the low low price of $444/kWh.

My original question stands. What does Tesla charge for pack replacements, per kWh? Because the frequently quoted Tesla cell production price is apples to oranges when compared with the Nissan battery retail price.

Btw, the price of a Leaf plus is $589/kWh... including the car. If you assume the car construction and markup is $20k, then the battery cost is $266/kWh.
2011 Silver SV, purchased 2018, lives in Missouri (previously in CA)
LeafSpy Pro + BAFX Products OBDII dongle
Battery swap 2019/04/24 (87% SOH, 12 bar)

cwerdna
Posts: 9574
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 12:29 am

Lothsahn wrote:Where did Nissan say the $9,000 was their cost? Firstly, you rounded up and included installation and shipping. I recall an article years ago saying that they weren't making money on $5,500 (installed), and prices of battery production have gone down since then.
We don't know Nissan's cost but yes https://insideevs.com/news/322310/nissa ... ney-loser/, states that they were losing $ at $5500. Perhaps they are tired of losing $?

Just because price per kWh over the whole industry has gone down doesn't mean it's gone down or by as much for AESC. Carlos Ghosn did say LG Chem is the "best battery maker" eventually: https://insideevs.com/news/327800/nissa ... wait-what/ and there was https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschm ... 90d0012c73. Nissan finally dumped most of AESC: https://insideevs.com/news/343669/nissa ... ion-group/. Not sure what kind of deal they can score.

As I posted earlier, it seems like the cost to replace the battery with labor seems to be somewhere north of low $7Ks and we're obviously hearing figures as high as $8500+. I'm not a aware of any official Nissan statement on why the price is so high now. There can be any number of reasons (e.g. to cover their (too high) costs, they don't want people to buy it, etc.)

edit: fixed typo
Last edited by cwerdna on Thu May 09, 2019 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
Posts: 4581
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 1:19 am

Cwerdna found the quote I was going to post.
Isn't the module produced for the 62 kwh pack different than the 24 kWh pack ? That would make a 24 kwh pack a one-off (or thereabouts) custom assembly. If correct, I'm only surprised the price increase was so modest.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Evoforce
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 2:33 am

cwerdna wrote:
Evoforce wrote: You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.
Peted appears to be in the US (I really wish the location field were mandatory) judging by his gas prices (e.g. $3.50/gal), use of mpg, mentioning Honda Clarity, etc.

Model 3 SR starts at $35K "off-menu" (https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup) until Tesla decides to yank it. Colors other than black will cost more (see https://www.tesla.com/model3/design for an idea of how much more). Tax credit is still $3750: https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives.

20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.
When Tesla batteries have been replaced, it was not degradation but usually faulty contactors. Even though none have gone 20-25 years to 70%, that is what the numbers are extrapolating out to. You can disagree but the current numbers are not supporting your position. The point is, the battery will last longer than most people would care to own the old steed.

Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack. Tesla also intended for cars to mate the original pack back in after repair. That hasn't always happened but this is inconsequential. The batteries very well may last longer economically than the rest of the car. But if the car is scrapped earlier for its metals, the batteries have value also to be re-purposed.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14027
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 6:43 am

SageBrush wrote:Cwerdna found the quote I was going to post.
Isn't the module produced for the 62 kwh pack different than the 24 kWh pack ? That would make a 24 kwh pack a one-off (or thereabouts) custom assembly. If correct, I'm only surprised the price increase was so modest.
Cells for nearly "every" model year are different. The biggest difference is how they are connected in a module, how the module is arranged and the actual size of the cell. On the latter, the difference is quite small, smaller than most would expect. That being said; it is still not a challenge to manufacture various types of cells.

But cells are batch processed very much like microprocessors. So they bake a batch and in a month, they have a finished cell so they are not "one offs"

Now, we all complained about Nissan's "4 to 8 weeks" for exchange comment when getting the battery replacement then read reports where someone people had a new pack in a week. It was simply good timing on their part. Batch done, cells packed, pack built. Other times, you might be the unlucky one and cells are still baking...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

peted
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 8:46 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2013
Leaf Number: 404867
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 8:07 am

Evoforce wrote:You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!
FYI: I'm in the Seattle area.

An SR doesn't do it. We're cheap, but we also enjoy our luxuries, and if we're buying a brand new car, it's not going to be baseline, or even close to.

And I'd love to see these Model S 85s you're talking about. We did a lot of shopping, and the only 85s we saw in that price range had major deficiencies. An 85 worth buying, even an old, high mileage one, was generally at least $45K, and often higher than that. That's why we were willing to pay $37K for a 60. If I'd been able to find an 85 for sale at that price (never mind $10K lower), I certainly would've bought that instead.

As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)

I haven't made up my mind about anything yet, but I certainly haven't seen that it's a foregone conclusion that there's zero justification for anyone paying the exorbitant cost of a LEAF battery replacement. Even at that price, you are still getting a car that is at least as useful as the car was when brand new, so if that's not a car that's good enough, one probably shouldn't have bought the LEAF in the first place. I know for sure, in our specific case, that is definitely not true. The LEAF has been a fantastically useful car for us, in spite of the current dilemma.

SageBrush
Posts: 4581
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Location: NM

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 8:20 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:That being said; it is still not a challenge to manufacture various types of cells.
I have no idea what a "challenge" means in this context but I'll be surprised if a production line is not explicitly designed for ONE specific type of cell, placed into ONE specific type of module.

If AESC (or whatever its new owners have named it) has to change the automation line for a few packs then those packs are going to cost like a one-off. They have no economies of scale. That approach sounds so expensive I am willing to gamble a few dollars it does not happen that way. I think much more likely AESC either takes cells off the production line (or from a stock made years ago if the cell is different) and hand assembles modules that are then hand assembled into a pack. The module assembly happens this way because Nissan agreed in the consent decree to use the latest, best cells they produce for warranty claims. I presume that one day that decree mandate will lapse and then AESC will stock modules.

This also suggests that manufacture date we note on a pack is the final assembly date and does not inform us when the cells were manufactured.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Evoforce
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 1:54 pm

peted wrote:
Evoforce wrote:You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference. We are now understanding it appears you may have already made up your mind and are just venting about the cost of Leaf replacement batteries. I know it angered me when my Nissan service manager told me not to buy the Leaf because it was being built as a short lived disposable vehicle. I like to own my vehicles a long time also. I would guess that I currently own more vehicles than most on this forum although my oldest car is only a "65". I'm sure some own older... Good luck!
FYI: I'm in the Seattle area.

An SR doesn't do it. We're cheap, but we also enjoy our luxuries, and if we're buying a brand new car, it's not going to be baseline, or even close to.

And I'd love to see these Model S 85s you're talking about. We did a lot of shopping, and the only 85s we saw in that price range had major deficiencies. An 85 worth buying, even an old, high mileage one, was generally at least $45K, and often higher than that. That's why we were willing to pay $37K for a 60. If I'd been able to find an 85 for sale at that price (never mind $10K lower), I certainly would've bought that instead.

As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)

I haven't made up my mind about anything yet, but I certainly haven't seen that it's a foregone conclusion that there's zero justification for anyone paying the exorbitant cost of a LEAF battery replacement. Even at that price, you are still getting a car that is at least as useful as the car was when brand new, so if that's not a car that's good enough, one probably shouldn't have bought the LEAF in the first place. I know for sure, in our specific case, that is definitely not true. The LEAF has been a fantastically useful car for us, in spite of the current dilemma.
Check out the TMC forum. There have been many older Model S 85, as of late, sold under $30,000. Once you go on that forum you can find many links to info and many forum members selling as well. I have been so tempted to buy one of those but my wife wants a smaller car like the 3 or the Y.

The SR is currently getting most of the interior features of the SR+ including the software limited long range battery that could be unlocked in the future for a fee should you ever need it.

We wish the 3 had a hatch as we have to accommodate a wheelchair. I don't have to share the S because she thinks it's to much for her to handle. If she drove it even once we would be arguing over who gets to drive it! So I don't push my good fortune. :D Luckily she currently has a short drive to work and the Leaf still works for that.

You are in the Seattle area so you have one of the best climates for longevity of your Leaf battery. We also find the Leaf a very comfortable car to drive.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

cwerdna
Posts: 9574
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 09, 2019 10:13 pm

peted wrote: As for the Bolt, I've been in one. I don't really care how big someone else is, or whether the seats are a problem for them or not. I already know whether the seats work for me.

(For the record: "big" is a very imprecise way of describing someone's size. A tall person like me has bone structure that's scaled up all around, including significantly wider hips. A shorter, overweight person may have the same width dimensionally, but that width is made of structure that's a lot more compressible. And indeed, the issue with the Bolt is that I can feel my hip bones squeezed by the side supports of the driver's seat. If I had more built-in padding, maybe it'd be different.)
Did you try an '18 or '19 Bolt. If you only tried a '17, there were improvements to the seats that began on the '18: https://insideevs.com/news/339196/updat ... uspension/.

That said, I rented a '17 Bolt via Turo (there were none beyond model year '17), was very likely a Premier trim and felt the seats were terrible. I have a '19 Premier and feel that seats are better, but definitely not great. I think there's less bolstering on the bottom cushion now so that wide people aren't hosed. Both the seat back and bottom portions could use more padding and be shaped better. (I'm not a large person.)

Some folks have reported on things they said have improved seat comfort like https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076XXDL38 from https://www.facebook.com/groups/4544586 ... 636539391/ (a closed Bolt group).

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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