SageBrush
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Tue May 29, 2018 5:14 pm

bartable wrote:But what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time.
Now I’m considering paying a bit more ($12-$13K for a 2015 with less than 20K miles) in the hope I can sell it for $9k in 3 years.

The market pays attention to MY and odometer. Given that sad and uninformed market reality, the only rule you can rely on is that depreciation slows down as the car ages.

It also tells you how to shop smartly: Buy an older leaf with high(er) miles and a good battery for cheap.
I'd look for 2013/4 with 40k miles and 12 bars capacity. Pay $6 - 7k
In 3 years you might be able to sell your future 10 bar LEAF for $4k
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
Posts: 5218
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Tue May 29, 2018 6:13 pm

Off-topic:

bartable wrote:...Now after paying close to $4/gallon for our SUV we’re looking at a used Leaf as our around town car...

A lot of people have had the same idea recently, which is why the older LEAFs have actually appreciated in value over the last year or so:

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-tre ... Leaf-d2077

bartable wrote:...what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time...

If that makes you nervous, you need to stop reading MNL posts immediately, as you have already been infected with the psychological malady which has led many posters here to pathetically suffer from obsessive chronic and severe range anxiety, capacity loss anxiety, and depreciation anxiety.

There is zero evidence that at some age, or at some lower-than-new capacity level, LEAF prices will drop to "next to nothing".

I expect more than half the ICEVs in the Bay Area are virtually never driven more than forty "around town" miles a day, and most LEAFs with the reasonable miles on them you suggest will likely still be able to that when they are ten years old, at a small fraction of the cost per mile of any ICEV.

TCO of any LEAF compared with TCO of an ICEV over the next three years will probably depend largely on what gas prices do over the next three years, just as it has for the last ~seven years.

And if you need to worry about that, be nervous about the danger of possibly cheap gas to the planet, not its effect on your BEV's resale value.
no condition is permanent

briscobully
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:04 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2018
Leaf Number: 315457
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 31, 2018 9:45 am

SageBrush wrote:
bartable wrote:But what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time.
Now I’m considering paying a bit more ($12-$13K for a 2015 with less than 20K miles) in the hope I can sell it for $9k in 3 years.

The market pays attention to MY and odometer. Given that sad and uninformed market reality, the only rule you can rely on is that depreciation slows down as the car ages.

It also tells you how to shop smartly: Buy an older leaf with high(er) miles and a good battery for cheap.
I'd look for 2013/4 with 40k miles and 12 bars capacity. Pay $6 - 7k
In 3 years you might be able to sell your future 10 bar LEAF for $4k



Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K? A search in Cars.com with 'all miles from me' selected shows a few 11'/12' models, most below 10 bars already starting at that price range? Prices seem to be going up not down. Due I'm sure to the Summer gas prices rising and the lack of available high bar Leafs in the market. The higher lease price for the 2018 Leaf seems to be sending more people to the older models as well. I actually had a dealer quote me a $575/mo lease price with $2999 down; SERIOUSLY!
2015 Leaf 'S' w/ QC package - Brilliant Silver - 12 Bar / ODO- 13,845 miles/ Ahr =60.81 / SOH= 91.52 / QC = 10 / L1/L2 = 420

SageBrush
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 31, 2018 10:33 am

briscobully wrote:Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K?!

E.g.,

https://carportal.co/buy/1n4az0cpxdc424931/
This car is a bit more but it has QC (and I presume a back-up camera.)

If you are a serious buyer you probably have to buy from outside the Chicago area and ship. That is what I did, and actually from carportal.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
IssacZachary
Forum Supporter
Posts: 826
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:57 am
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 420789
Location: Gunnison, CO, USA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 31, 2018 1:32 pm

edatoakrun wrote:A lot of people have had the same idea recently, which is why the older LEAFs have actually appreciated in value over the last year or so:]

That's good to know. I think I might try to sell my Leaf again this summer since I need to drive farther than before and it isn't quite making it.

edatoakrun wrote:If that makes you nervous, you need to stop reading MNL posts immediately, as you have already been infected with the psychological malady which has led many posters here to pathetically suffer from obsessive chronic and severe range anxiety, capacity loss anxiety, and depreciation anxiety.

I know! Right? The Leaf isn't perfect, but it buying one doesn't mean you sold your soul to the Devil either.

For a anyone who is either an EV enthusiast or who has a short drive to work or school, especially in a cool climate, and doesn't mind having a multi-car family a used Leaf would be just about perfect.
2013 SL 50,000 miles.
12 bars until 44,300 miles on June 2, 2017. :D
11 bars current. :)
The Nissan Leaf is the fourth best long distance car for highway driving. >>Best Long Distance Cars<<

briscobully
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:04 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2018
Leaf Number: 315457
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 31, 2018 2:00 pm

SageBrush wrote:
briscobully wrote:Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K?!

E.g.,

https://carportal.co/buy/1n4az0cpxdc424931/
This car is a bit more but it has QC (and I presume a back-up camera.)

If you are a serious buyer you probably have to buy from outside the Chicago area and ship. That is what I did, and actually from carportal.



SageBrush-

Saw that vehicle on CarPortal already and called them on it... Sold! They told me that they have been having some trouble updating their website inventory and a lot of cars are not on there anymore. In fact, the same 23 cars have been showing up on their site for the last 3-4 weeks. Also, a lot of the 'S' models don't have a QC port.

The other problem with buying out of town cars (not CarPortal) is that you can't check the battery with LS. I also will have to add about $1,000 to my purchase price for shipping so the car HAS to be a good deal in order for me to take the risk!
2015 Leaf 'S' w/ QC package - Brilliant Silver - 12 Bar / ODO- 13,845 miles/ Ahr =60.81 / SOH= 91.52 / QC = 10 / L1/L2 = 420

alozzy
Posts: 1004
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:49 pm

Tesla predicts $100 kWh battery cells by the end of 2018:

https://evobsession.com/tesla-aiming-to ... this-year/

At that comes to fruition, perhaps there is still hope for replacement, after market LEAF packs at a reasonable price.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

SageBrush
Posts: 2489
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:18 pm

alozzy wrote:Tesla predicts $100 kWh battery cells by the end of 2018:

https://evobsession.com/tesla-aiming-to ... this-year/

At that comes to fruition, perhaps there is still hope for replacement, after market LEAF packs at a reasonable price.

That is the Tesla Gigafactory battery cell production cost. All their production is used in Tesla products.

No other battery cell manufacturer comes close, and their profit margin jacks the price up further.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

alozzy
Posts: 1004
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:18 pm

@SageBrush Yes, I am aware that it's the Gigafactory battery cell cost - it's still relevant. Tesla won't maintain indefinitely a competitive advantage with respect to battery cell costs. My point is that the trend is towards lower $/kWh and that eventually (hopefully soon), there will emerge a market for affordable EV replacement packs that currently doesn't exist.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

MalcolmReynolds
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:39 am
Delivery Date: 04 Jul 2017

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:45 pm

What Nissan has effectively just done is signaled the end of the first gen 24kwh Leaf. Price increase on a battery that should be decreasing in price. A price tag that is as high or higher than the value of the older cars. Any plans I had of replacing the battery on my car when it needs replacement have just been terminated. Nissan is effectively telling gen 1 24khw Leaf owners to go away or buy a new car from us.

Well it will be a cold day in a very hot place now before I will buy another Nissan. Thankfully my car is fine for now, but when it becomes effectively useless due to battery degradation it will be off to the salvage yard. That is PATHETIC! My car is still in very good condition and nothing wrong with it. The idea that the battery degrading to the point of uselessness and no effective way to fix it is beyond my breaking point of pissed off.

Nissan had better reverse course on this decision or this will be the last Nissan I ever own. Period.
=======================================
"Serenity" 2013 SL 12 bars 39k+ miles and counting
Zencar 32a EVSE

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