I've got a 2016 SV that has been in service for a little over 2 years, it has 35k miles on it. I have a 3 year lease at 15k per year and I've been using miles faster than my 15k per year lease allowance. I also leased a 2013 which i drove 45k miles and returned with 12 bars. My 2016 is definitely
degrading faster. I currently have 11 bars and have an SOH of about 81%. I've plotted out my SOH as a function of miles driven and it looks to me like I should hit 66% at about 65k miles or so, which I would expect to do in about 2 additional years. It is my understanding that 66% SOH is approximately the 4th bar drop. I believe the car would still meet my commute needs comfortably at that time. Even if the rate of SOH deterioration should slow it does not appear to me that I'd have any problem getting in under the 8-year, 100k battery capacity warranty.
If I get a fresh pack at 65k or 70k miles it seems to me that it might be a good idea to buy this car at lease end, or perhaps buy it out now and plan on enjoying a "second leaf life" and maybe getting 150k miles out of this car.
Does this seem reasonable? Any thoughts on this strategy?