JohnBysinger
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:16 am

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:15 pm

webb14leafs wrote:I don't see how this business model would attract long term investors. It relies on packs without active thermal management systems. Degradation on packs WITH active management is far too low for this type of model to make sense. With that said, your market is limited maybe a couple hundred thousand nissan leaf owners. This market will ONLY shrink in the future as ALL EVs adopt active management systems, or solid state batteries.

Maybe this model makes more sense for residential and grid scale energy storage, but I certainly would not invest in it.


The Leaf solution is definitely a market with an expiration date, we're quite aware of that. And yes other EVs do include thermal management, however, there are a few other things they all come with: An expiring warranty, a high battery replacement cost, and a manufacturer who likely won't offer an upgrade path. We will be developing products for both EVs that are past warranty, and offering our components available Ala Carte for custom EV shops and conversions as well.

And yes, we are already in discussions with investors interested in residential and commercial storage using this same model along with a number of other storage markets not mentioned here. To make this solution sustainable, we have to serve a portfolio of markets and are actively developing those efforts already.

JohnBysinger
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:16 am

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:20 pm

davewill wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:As I understand it, and I could be wrong, the Fenix packs will use TMS. However, I do agree with wondering how viable this product will be. Are there really that many people out there with first gen Leafs who would want this? I would imagine most people who can afford a new EV would simply trade and move on to something else. I'm still seriously considering a used Leaf (might be going to look at one or two today) since it's about the only way I will ever be able to get into an EV. Knowing what I know about the car, I would be interested in the Fenix pack since I would invariably be in need of another battery at some point.


It doesn't matter whether the original owner would do this or not. The traded LEAF doesn't just disappear, it becomes someone else's LEAF. That goes for every single EV out there. If there's a good way to keep these older EVs on the road, then people will buy and refurb those cars instead of them going to the crusher. In fact, I think it's safe to say that people who buy new EVs probably WON'T do this, it will be the people who buy them used.


Dave that is exactly right, we're going after vehicles past warrant, first with the LEAF then others. We do have the intention to try to get manufacturers to offer our system as an option or standard with a new car as we believe that decoupling the battery cost from the purchase can make an EV not only cost competitive with ICE, but likely even under-cut them in price. But that's down the road, for now, we focus on keeping past-warranty EVs on the road longer, and affordably.

JohnBysinger
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:16 am

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:23 pm

webb14leafs wrote:
powersurge wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:I don't see how this business model would attract long term investors. It relies on packs without active thermal management systems. Degradation on packs WITH active management is far too low for this type of model to make sense. With that said, your market is limited maybe a couple hundred thousand nissan leaf owners. This market will ONLY shrink in the future as ALL EVs adopt active management systems, or solid state batteries.

Maybe this model makes more sense for residential and grid scale energy storage, but I certainly would not invest in it.


This guy certainly likes to ruffle feathers... He was probably thrown out of the Tesla forum.. His continued poo pooing of non-active cooling batteries is tiring and old... The benefit of this thread is to keep our (according to him) obsolete "non-cooled" Leafs on the road long-term...

I probably would not invest in this business, but I would welcome this service nationwide for all cars with batteries in them...


I don't intend to ruffle feathers.

I own a 2014 Nissan Leaf, currently with ~80% SOH. I'm a prospective customer. I'm not saying it's a bad idea. I also never said my car or my battery was obsolete. I'm saying that at some point in the future, they will be.

As someone who's interested in the service, I'm putting thought into the likelihood of the company staying around long enough for me to get my moneys worth.

It just seems like too much of a niche market to sustain itself. Hopefully I'm wrong.



Well you didn't ruffle my feathers, in fact quite the opposite. We're looking for as much customer feedback as we can get at this stage, as learning from them AFTER we're in production gets quite a bit more expensive. Stay skeptical, ask tough questions, and hopefully when you're ready, we'll be able to show you that we're ready and driven for the long haul with you as well. Thanks for the feedback!

JohnBysinger
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:16 am

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:32 pm

webb14leafs wrote:I agree 100%. I'm just considering whether this is a sustainable business that won't go bankrupt 2 years after I pay a deposit.


Of course, this is where i'm supposed to promise that we'll be here for you always and forever, you're absolutely right that there is some risk at this stage. If I was able to predict the future like that, I'd have retired years ago! Instead, I'll tell you a bit more about the tech, so you can make an informed judgement and weigh your options better.

We're designing both the backend and the pack/modules to work in concert and operate more like Netflix than a VHS tape, but we have heard, for years now, from customers who simply want to buy the battery and not be tied to a subscription. So the hardware is designed with that in mind. If the pack loses connectivity with the service, it doesn't stop working. We're designing the data connection to primarily just be a feed of statistical data back to our service. We can't replace a module "in the cloud", that's a physical change, so we're making the pack easy to remove modules, replace them, and yes, even to service the module itself. We will be using cylindrical cells, and assuming Fenix does go bankrupt, a motivated DIY individual will be able to open the modules, test and replace the cells themselves if they needed to. You may lost us, but you'll be able to keep your LEAF on the road without us if need be.

webb14leafs
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:08 am

JohnBysinger wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:I agree 100%. I'm just considering whether this is a sustainable business that won't go bankrupt 2 years after I pay a deposit.


Of course, this is where i'm supposed to promise that we'll be here for you always and forever, you're absolutely right that there is some risk at this stage. If I was able to predict the future like that, I'd have retired years ago! Instead, I'll tell you a bit more about the tech, so you can make an informed judgement and weigh your options better.

We're designing both the backend and the pack/modules to work in concert and operate more like Netflix than a VHS tape, but we have heard, for years now, from customers who simply want to buy the battery and not be tied to a subscription. So the hardware is designed with that in mind. If the pack loses connectivity with the service, it doesn't stop working. We're designing the data connection to primarily just be a feed of statistical data back to our service. We can't replace a module "in the cloud", that's a physical change, so we're making the pack easy to remove modules, replace them, and yes, even to service the module itself. We will be using cylindrical cells, and assuming Fenix does go bankrupt, a motivated DIY individual will be able to open the modules, test and replace the cells themselves if they needed to. You may lost us, but you'll be able to keep your LEAF on the road without us if need be.


Thank you for your responsiveness John. Your business is intriguing, but the cost seems excessive. Is it possible for the cost to go down as your business scales?

Over a 5 year period, the cost of a deposit plus monthly "premiums" is equivalent to a new battery pack (24kWhr), but over that time you will certainly not have provided an equivalent number of cells. You will have likely replaced anywhere from 20% to 50% of the individual cells. Finding enough car owners who 1 - Need or desire 100% of the original capacity for the entire period they own it, and 2 - Are willing to offset their fuel cost savings with a battery "subscription" service seems unlikely.

I wish you luck, but as an avid investor in new and emerging technologies and services, I'm lost. What am I missing.

I'm wondering if you see this as just the tip of the iceberg, and you are really just getting your foot in the door of what's to come. V2G, Micro-Grids, Energy Storage...

webb14leafs
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:50 am

JohnBysinger wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
powersurge wrote:
This guy certainly likes to ruffle feathers... He was probably thrown out of the Tesla forum.. His continued poo pooing of non-active cooling batteries is tiring and old... The benefit of this thread is to keep our (according to him) obsolete "non-cooled" Leafs on the road long-term...

I probably would not invest in this business, but I would welcome this service nationwide for all cars with batteries in them...


I don't intend to ruffle feathers.

I own a 2014 Nissan Leaf, currently with ~80% SOH. I'm a prospective customer. I'm not saying it's a bad idea. I also never said my car or my battery was obsolete. I'm saying that at some point in the future, they will be.

As someone who's interested in the service, I'm putting thought into the likelihood of the company staying around long enough for me to get my moneys worth.

It just seems like too much of a niche market to sustain itself. Hopefully I'm wrong.



Well you didn't ruffle my feathers, in fact quite the opposite. We're looking for as much customer feedback as we can get at this stage, as learning from them AFTER we're in production gets quite a bit more expensive. Stay skeptical, ask tough questions, and hopefully when you're ready, we'll be able to show you that we're ready and driven for the long haul with you as well. Thanks for the feedback!


John,

Sorry to bug you so much, but I am really interested in this service. Not so much for what it is now, but what it could be in the future.
The cost of thermal battery management exceeds the monetary value of the avoided degradation. Replacing this initial cost with a “service” cost for ALL battery powered cars would be a real value. Assuming battery costs get to ~$100/kWhr, or lower, and the average passively managed battery loses 1-2kWhr of capacity per year, this becomes an affordable, viable and scalable solution.

Tesla could stop spending $3K-$7K (depending on what you read) on their battery cooling mechanism and off-load this cost to customers who are already accustomed to paying >$100/year on routine maintenance. Topping off your battery capacity could be the equivalent of swapping out your engine coolant or transmission fluid.

We are entering a battery powered world and those batteries will need to be maintained.

tattoogunman
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:06 am

I'm also interested in the fact that so many of the EV owners that I talk to actually think they will be keeping their cars indefinitely, something I don't hear very often from other groups. That's not a jab at anyone, but given the kind of money we are talking about (in addition to mechanical issues obviously), it would just seem that trying to do this in the long run is going to cost more money than it's worth to keep the cars. If a lease option was available up front at the time of purchase (similar to what Renault offers on the Zoe), I think it would make much more sense. But again, seeing as how I may be picking up a Leaf this weekend, I am interested in seeing 3rd party companies stepping up to help out the EV community if the OEM abandons customers.

webb14leafs
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:37 am

tattoogunman wrote:I'm also interested in the fact that so many of the EV owners that I talk to actually think they will be keeping their cars indefinitely, something I don't hear very often from other groups. That's not a jab at anyone, but given the kind of money we are talking about (in addition to mechanical issues obviously), it would just seem that trying to do this in the long run is going to cost more money than it's worth to keep the cars. If a lease option was available up front at the time of purchase (similar to what Renault offers on the Zoe), I think it would make much more sense. But again, seeing as how I may be picking up a Leaf this weekend, I am interested in seeing 3rd party companies stepping up to help out the EV community if the OEM abandons customers.



I agree, and it seems like auto companies should think about manufacturing cars so that individual cells can be easily swapped and dropped. The cost of "lease" programs does not make sense on a cost/kWhr basis, but that's probably because the labor involved with getting to the pack is very high.

tattoogunman
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:42 am

webb14leafs wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:I'm also interested in the fact that so many of the EV owners that I talk to actually think they will be keeping their cars indefinitely, something I don't hear very often from other groups. That's not a jab at anyone, but given the kind of money we are talking about (in addition to mechanical issues obviously), it would just seem that trying to do this in the long run is going to cost more money than it's worth to keep the cars. If a lease option was available up front at the time of purchase (similar to what Renault offers on the Zoe), I think it would make much more sense. But again, seeing as how I may be picking up a Leaf this weekend, I am interested in seeing 3rd party companies stepping up to help out the EV community if the OEM abandons customers.



I agree, and it seems like auto companies should think about manufacturing cars so that individual cells can be easily swapped and dropped. The cost of "lease" programs does not make sense on a cost/kWhr basis, but that's probably because the labor involved with getting to the pack is very high.


I think it's more from a peace of mind perspective and it also reduces the initial purchase price of the vehicle. So for example, that $30K Leaf S is now $21,500 without you actually buying the pack and then you make a lease payment for the pack, etc. When/if the pack goes bad, you take it back to the dealer and have it swapped out no questions asked. That way you are not on the hook for an $8500 replacement battery, etc. I guess it just depends on what each individual purchaser wants to do you know?

powersurge
Posts: 1127
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Fenix Power: A new third party battery replacement?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:26 am

I think that the main problem is that the EV companies need to have an "open sourced" battery design so that owners can have the batteries replaced as a maintenance item. Not have batteries with computers and serial numbers that must be married to the car only by Nissan.

Most battery powered appliances (except Apple) allow people to replace the batteries easily. We need to lobby to have this made into the designs of new cars... Its like saying that Nissan cars can only run on Nissan gasoline available ONLY at Nissan dealers... Ridiculous..

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