Leaf Arbitrage?

I noticed that I can buy a 2018 S for ~$16.9k, after rebates, before sales taxes and such, in Colorado. However, I see that neighboring states rarely even have used 2017s for that price, probably because Colorado has a very generous tax credit that only applies to new vehicles.

That makes me wonder - could you buy a 2018 S for $16.9k in Colorado, put a ton of miles on it (30k or so), and then sell it for around $16k in California or any other non-rebate state? That seems like it'd still be a pretty competitive price, even used.

Don't know about other states, but California has rebates. When I check Autotrader here, used are going for less than what you propose - and most of those are the dealer list prices. As a private party seller you would get less. Perhaps taking the car to another state would allow you to sell your used car for about what you paid for it new. But I wouldn't count on it.

Now moving the car to another state for sale might get you a better price than you would get in your own state and be worthwhile if you were selling anyway. I suspect that has been happening a lot, especially moving from Phoenix to the Pacific Northwest where buyers might not realize the battery has been fried.

DarthPuppy said:

Don't know about other states, but California has rebates. When I check Autotrader here, used are going for less than what you propose - and most of those are the dealer list prices. As a private party seller you would get less. Perhaps taking the car to another state would allow you to sell your used car for about what you paid for it new. But I wouldn't count on it.

Now moving the car to another state for sale might get you a better price than you would get in your own state and be worthwhile if you were selling anyway. I suspect that has been happening a lot, especially moving from Phoenix to the Pacific Northwest where buyers might not realize the battery has been fried.

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Huh? The cheapest '18 on AutoTrader is $27k or so. I don't think you can look at a '16 or '17 and trend it out the same way considering the battery is considerably larger and the car has undergone a complete redesign.

In fact, the cheapest 30kWh Leaf I can find on AutoTrader is around $14k, which kinda seems to support my idea.

Your original post is the one that referenced 2017 prices and so that is what I used in my local Autotrader check.

It would be relevant to compare the 2017 used price vs. what a new 2017 sold for in 2017. That 'may' give you a reasonable estimate in drop in value of holding and driving a car for 1 year. With the 2018 being a completely new model, it may not match up. But you were the one pointing to 2017 price data as the basis for your plan.

you are right.. we are all jealously looking at Colorado and the rebates for EVs. if only I had some family and friends over there who don't want a new Leaf.. would be willing to get one and ship it to me in Utah.

I bought my very first new car after nearly 40 years of car ownership last year since a new 2017 Leaf S was cheaper than any used Leaf that I could find on CL. After never owning a new car I was a little surprised at the taxes, registration fees, etc but those are now behind me and I've switched the insurance to liability only so that's no longer an issue either.

^^ PM me if you are serious. I might be persuaded to buy another Leaf and sell it to you but it would have to be zero cost to me and I would need all the details ironed out first. I'm also not interested in being a negotiating agent so there would be no bargaining to be had at the dealer from me.

I've never driven a 2018 Leaf and I don't need the added range but a friend of a friend claims to have sold his 2017 and bought a 2018 as a straight exchange after all the rebates. If I wasn't so happy with my 2017 I would consider this but frankly I don't need the hassle.

The IRS has some rules on the federal tax credit, regarding reselling the EV. The credit isn't applicable to a new EV being purchased for the purpose of reselling it. It's a fuzzy area, and I don't know all of the fine print details, though:
https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i8936
Maybe an accountant can help with the details.

Good point - the governments usually have a way of spoiling these ideas. In California for instance, you have to keep the car registered in your name in the state for at least 3 years or refund a portion of the rebate. I'd be surprised if Colorado allowed you to take their rebate and run - but I could be wrong.

For Federal, I doubt the state the car is in matters. But they probably do have a certain ownership requirement to prevent people from churning the tax credit.

eatsleafsandshoots said:

I noticed that I can buy a 2018 S for ~$16.9k, after rebates, before sales taxes and such, in Colorado. However, I see that neighboring states rarely even have used 2017s for that price, probably because Colorado has a very generous tax credit that only applies to new vehicles.

That makes me wonder - could you buy a 2018 S for $16.9k in Colorado, put a ton of miles on it (30k or so), and then sell it for around $16k in California or any other non-rebate state?

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Remember that you will pay Colorado sales tax and ownership taxes for one year of use, and will probably incur costs to sell out of state. Moreover, expect the LEAF to depreciate like a rock. You will also be on eggshells, worried about every nick and scratch. Wear and tear is discounted heavily in almost new cars. If that is not enough, remember that you will have to sell the car privately. That is one big PITA. For the one person who bought my private sale car, 5 wasted my time with low-ball offers and 20 were scammers.
I would not play that game.

On the flip side though, the 40 kWh LEAF can probably be relied upon to keep a 100 EPA mile range for 10 years. If that range matches your use profile then $17k (+ TT&L) for 10 years of use is a a fine deal.

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All that said, it is possible with the right car. I bought a Toyota Prius Prime and used it for 15 months and 20k miles before selling it to an out-of-stater. I pocketed about $2500 NET but if I had to guess, I'd say that the buyer was unaware of the federal tax credit on a new car.

I mean, the Leaf doesn't depreciate like a rock in this situation though. I'm paying $16.9k net, I could literally take that car to any other state and sell it at that price even with 10k or 20k miles on it, if it were in great condition.

DarthPuppy: that's a good thought, and exactly what lead me to this one. I bought my 2017 S for $5k with a bunch of cosmetic hail damage, but it *should* have cost $11.5k or so without it. At the time, barely used 2017 S were going for like $16-17k in nearby states.

The real question is why I can only get a good deal on the Leaf, though. The deals on the Bolt, which is what I really want, absolutely suck in Colorado.

Next 2-3 years...California will be a good market for used EVs from out of state. This has mainly to do with the new HOV legislation...every new EV or any used EV which has never been issued a CA HOV sticker in the past..will be eligible for 3-4 years of HOV lane access max.

Californians who want an EV for HOV lane access but don't want to buy a new one...can always get a used EV from out of state and since it would never have had a CA HOV issued in its history...it will be eligible for the same 3-4 year period as a new EV.

I don't need to tell you...what that will do to the demand for used out of state EVs imported to CA.
On the other hand, Californians like to buy the latest and greatest and are more willing to spend on it...almost more than any other state in the US..so that might dampen the demand a little bit...but I would love to pick up a used 2018 Leaf from out of state next year..since the lease on my 2016 Leaf will be up.

mihird said:

Next 2-3 years...California will be a good market for used EVs from out of state. This has mainly to do with the new HOV legislation...every new EV or any used EV which has never been issued a CA HOV sticker in the past..will be eligible for 3-4 years of HOV lane access max.

Californians who want an EV for HOV lane access but don't want to buy a new one...can always get a used EV from out of state and since it would never have had a CA HOV issued in its history...it will be eligible for the same 3-4 year period as a new EV.

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Yes, will be interesting.

As for the last point, one needs to be a little careful with that. Before buying, one needs to make sure that it was never registered in CA. I checked a few Leafs at Platt Auto (in Oregon) for kicks the other day. They free have Carfax links and all the ones I happened to open up had been registered and serviced in CA.

cwerdna said:

Yes, will be interesting.

As for the last point, one needs to be a little careful with that. Before buying, one needs to make sure that it was never registered in CA. I checked a few Leafs at Platt Auto (in Oregon) for kicks the other day. They free have Carfax links and all the ones I happened to open up had been registered and serviced in CA.

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Likewise...used EVs from California will start getting dumped out of state..starting early next year.

So much, for this weird HOV lane legislation that got passed in CA.

You are right...used EVs from neighboring states (Oregon, Arizona and Nevada)...one has to be careful....they could have had CA HOV sticker history on them....

You are right...used EVs from neighboring states (Oregon, Arizona and Nevada)...one has to be careful....they could have had CA HOV sticker history on them....

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Companies like Carvana ship them all over the country from hotter states, so it won't matter where you are if you are using a service like theirs.