GRA
Posts: 9487
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:32 pm

SageBrush wrote:
golfcart wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I certainly understand the desire to not waste money on cars but I view cost in terms of total cost of ownership and safety while striving be a positive member of society.


I notice you keep saying safety... Is there a reason you consider a 2018 model 3 to be substantially safer than a 2018 leaf given that the new leaf has automatic emergency braking, blind spot detection, propilot, etc...?

https://insideevs.com/nhtsa-tesla-model ... le-tested/

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/20/1788 ... ety-rating

NHTSA hasn't tested the 2018 LEAF yet, but Euro NCAP has. Comparing across different test procedures isn't the best idea, but:
2018 Nissan LEAF Wins 5-Star Safety Rating In New, More Rigorous Euro NCAP Crash Tests
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/01/2018-nissan-leaf-wins-5-star-safety-rating-in-new-more-rigorous-euro-ncap-crash-testing/

I suspect the safety difference between the two on the same test regime will be fairly marginal, but we'll see.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

golfcart
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:47 pm

SageBrush wrote:https://insideevs.com/nhtsa-tesla-model-3-safest-vehicle-tested/

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/20/1788 ... ety-rating


That's pretty impressive to be the safest ever tested.
2015 S with Charge Package

golfcart
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:49 pm

GRA wrote:https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/01/2018-nissan-leaf-wins-5-star-safety-rating-in-new-more-rigorous-euro-ncap-crash-testing/

I suspect the safety difference between the two on the same test regime will be fairly marginal, but we'll see.


That's good to know too, definitely a point in favor of a 2018 over my 2015.
2015 S with Charge Package

kosjet
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:05 pm
Delivery Date: 29 Sep 2018
Leaf Number: 317089
Location: Delaware

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:01 pm

SageBrush wrote:As an owner of a Tesla and a LEAF, I can tell you that the Tesla has a LOT more than 1% additional marginal utility:

    Safety
    Enjoyment
    Superior engineering
    Expected long life
    *Full replacement of an ICE*

I paid $46k for the two cars net out of pocket and pay trivial fuel costs. No back-up ICE crap rusting in my driveway while I am forced to pay carrying costs. It would be difficult if not impossible to have better value.


True, my 1% was purely a measure of my number of days of reasonable utility and did not account for other factors of value. There is no doubt that the Model 3 is a better car. The question is how much extra are you willing to pay for that extra. For me, I did not value those additional factors over the Leaf at their current price points. It's a personal value calculation.
2018 Leaf SL w/Tech delivered 9/29/2018

LeftieBiker
Posts: 9776
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:25 pm

In my case a Model 3 would have far less utility than a Leaf (because of the lack of a heated steering wheel, more difficult access, harsher ride, etc), and the additional range and track performance would be of no additional benefit. In fact, the rougher ride would be a definite negative point for me... the real car to compare a Model 3 with is the Bolt.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:26 am

LeftieBiker wrote:In fact, the rougher ride

The ride in my Model 3 is wonderful.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

NJLeaf75
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:38 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Feb 2018

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:22 am

If I were in your shoes I would wait until the 60 kWh Leaf hit the market and then trade in your 2015 Leaf for a 2018 Leaf. The 60 kWh Leaf should be on the market by Spring/Summer 2019 and around that time you should see some solid deals on the 2018 Leaf's remaining inventory. Not only will the 2018 Leaf be competing with the 60 kWh Leaf, it will also be competing with the 64 kWh Hyundai Kona and the 39.2 kWh Kona. If Telsa starts selling the 35k version of the Model 3 around that time, then the market should soften for the 2018 Leaf.

I bought a 2018 Leaf SL with everything included back in February of 2018. I have therefore experienced driving the 2018 Leaf in the winter, summer and autumn. It is a solid car. My work commute is only 30 miles round trip, so the 150 miles of range that the vehicle offers is more than enough to suit my needs. I am a techie, so I love the additions of Pro-Pilot and 360-degree view cam. I purchased the vehicle to serve as a commuter car...and has not disappointed. Lots of instantaneous torque, and not a bad looker (I was not a fan of the looks of older versions of the Leaf). It is a perfect commuter car for me. But it is not just limited to use as a "local" car for me. I have found it to be a good "regional" car as well. With the recent increase in charging stations, I can easily travel from Northern NJ to other regional cities like Philadelphia, New Haven, and Hartford. I have also trekked out to Boston (twice) and Washington, DC. It is a solid regional car.

However, if you plan on taking any regional trips that require to charge more than twice enroute, then you may want go for a 64 kWh Leaf or a 64 kWh Kona. The third charge really does trickle in at a slow rate. I understand why it does so, but it gets a bit frustrating if you area road tripper like me. My second vehicle is a 2017 Prius Prime, and I am sort of spoiled by having the ability to travel from Northern NJ all the way to Montreal Canada with out having to stop more than once for gas. I am now caught in that awkward evolutionary phase where I love EV driving so much that I loathe using any gas, but I still have a primal urge to take road trips. Therefore, I am probably going to have to upgrade the 2018 Leaf. If I were to re-do my February 2018 purchase, I would have put a bit more emphasis on a car with 200 plus miles range and a liquid cooled battery. I did not like the seats in the Bolt (nor the price), so I would not have gone that route. I also would not have gone for the Model 3 as I am not a fan of its minimalist interior or lack of dealerships for those times that my car needs to be serviced. That leaves me somewhere in between the 64 kWh Leaf and the 64 kWh Kona. The decision between those two for me will come down to, in order of priority: (i) backseat legroom, (ii) the rate at which the vehicle can fast charge, and (iii) usable cargo/trunk space. The Kona's ability to suck in electricity at a rate of 72 kWh is about as good as I will be able to get on my budget, so that may sway my decision since I road trip a bit. I am also staring to think that the CCS fast charging standard may be a better option since Electrify America is installing a network of chargers that is clearly biased towards that standard. Accordingly, the I will give the Kona a detailed look...even though in my heart I will be rooting for the long range Leaf.

golfcart wrote:I am just going through this exercise in my head now and was curious what other leaf owners think or have done.

I have a 2015 Leaf S with 43,000 miles on it. My latest leafspy stats show 83% SOH and 52AHr on the battery. I just dropped my first bar last week. I have a 52 mile round trip commute and a child with activities a few days a week. Right now I can manage pretty well but it is getting tight on some cold days to get the kid after work and get them where they need to go without having the charge first (which is not always an option).

I don't think there is any chance of me getting my battery replaced for free based on my rate of degradation current my commute which will likely cause me to hit 60,000 miles sometime in late 2019 or early 2020.

I originally paid $23,400 for the car with the QC Package and Winter Package. That came out to $15,900 after the tax rebate. We financed at 0% so this car didn't really cost me that much.

Here is my dilemma... Do I unload the car now while I can get about $10k for it or just drive it until it can no longer make my commute in the winter and sell it/trade it in then (which will likely be the 2019/2020 winter).

If I got $10k for the car early in 2019 (which I think I could) I would have spent $5900 net for 3 1/2 years of maintenance free driving. That is pretty great in my opinion. I could use that money to put towards a 2018 SV with winter package and tech package that has been sitting on the dealer lot for the last year (assuming it's still there). Then, given the 40kWh battery pack and 8 year warranty, never have to worry about range again. Even if the battery dropped to 60% in 8 years I'd still be able to get to work and back no problem. Plus I'd get the pro-pilot, hybrid heater, android auto, e-pedal, etc...

If I hold on to the current car, I risk the vehicle becoming a real hassle for me sometime next winter and having questionable resale value at that point. I mean, who wants a car that only goes 55 miles in the winter (probably 45 if you turn the heater on)?. I suppose at that point I could trade it in on a 2019 or used 2018 but I am unsure how much resale I will lose between now and then. Given the number of other EV and PHEV options coming out it just makes me feel like the GEN1 leaf is gonna look like a dinosaur soon and nobody will want it.

I guess my final option is just drive it into the ground and QC it on my lunch break every day once the range gets to low. That is probably the cheapest since the dealership is right by my office and I can charge for free since I bought it there. That just sounds like it'll get old real quick.

Any thoughts? Anyone sold a 2015 recently or upgraded from a GEN1 leaf to a GEN2 leaf? If so, do u think it was a good choice? What would y'all do in my situation? There are no bad opinions, I am just mulling over my choices and would appreciate any input.

SageBrush
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:30 pm

kosjet wrote:
SageBrush wrote:As an owner of a Tesla and a LEAF, I can tell you that the Tesla has a LOT more than 1% additional marginal utility:

    Safety
    Enjoyment
    Superior engineering
    Expected long life
    *Full replacement of an ICE*

I paid $46k for the two cars net out of pocket and pay trivial fuel costs. No back-up ICE crap rusting in my driveway while I am forced to pay carrying costs. It would be difficult if not impossible to have better value.


True, my 1% was purely a measure of my number of days of reasonable utility and did not account for other factors of value. There is no doubt that the Model 3 is a better car. The question is how much extra are you willing to pay for that extra. For me, I did not value those additional factors over the Leaf at their current price points. It's a personal value calculation.

I am 60 years old. My hope is that our Model 3 will be the last car I buy. Say .. 20 years of use, trivial fuel costs. If it works out that way the value will have been tremendous.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

LeftieBiker
Posts: 9776
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pm

SageBrush wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:In fact, the rougher ride

The ride in my Model 3 is wonderful.


You like it, but that doesn't make it soft enough for those who prefer ride comfort over enhanced cornering capability. The somewhat harsh ride has been mentioned in several reviews of the 3 now. It's a sports sedan, whereas the Leaf is a family car. Again, the Model 3 should be directly compared with the Bolt, not the Leaf.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

golfcart
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:11 pm

NJLeaf75 wrote:If I were in your shoes I would wait until the 60 kWh Leaf hit the market and then trade in your 2015 Leaf for a 2018 Leaf.


That seems to be the consensus unless I get charging at work then I'll probably just keep the 2015. I appreciate the detailed review of the 2018 it seems like a solid car for my needs.

NJLeaf75 wrote:However, if you plan on taking any regional trips that require to charge more than twice enroute, then you may want go for a 64 kWh Leaf or a 64 kWh Kona.


The wife has a car we can take on longer trips the leaf is my commuter, golf cart, grocery getter, bike hauler, kid taxi, and surf wagon. All those things are within 30 miles of my house.
2015 S with Charge Package

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