tesleaf
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:44 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Oct 2018
Location: Vancouver, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:41 pm

GlennD wrote:
WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:This was a pretty frequent worry of people on the Tesla forum *before* they took ownership of the car. Now it is never talked about except to say that the concern turned out to be a non-issue and they *prefer* the way it is setup in the Model 3.

The way to reduce car ownership costs is to keep the car a long time. Once you accept that reality the Model 3 is moderately priced. People who gauge car costs by a 5 year timetable are not prioritizing cost of ownership.


Some of us might well keep a LEAF well beyond 5 years. Some of us see no additional value for the extra money for a Model 3. Some of use actually love our LEAFs, and might well replace the LEAF with a new LEAF if it dies, is totaled, etc. As I already have.

Would you please take the Tesla sales pitches someplace else? Please?


I am holding out for the promised 35K actually 37K in white. It may never happen but Elon promised . I am not holding my breath. They say that currently they can not make a 35K car without loosing money.


Even Chevy says they lose $9K-10K on each Bolt they sell.
Tesla will lose money on $35K TM3.
The demand seems to be high for mid and long range models. Why would they make $35K short range model if they lose money?
I have no reason to FUD Tesla, and I don't think $35K Tesla will ever get produced.
2015 Leaf S w/ QC . I have Leaf Spy Pro.

SageBrush
Posts: 2917
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:55 pm

Elon has been consistent in saying that the $35k Model 3 will be profitable to manufacture when Tesla is able to produce 10k Model 3 a week. He estimates that will happen early 2019 so I figure mid 2019 until deliveries in substantial volume
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:42 pm

tesleaf wrote:Even Chevy says they lose $9K-10K on each Bolt they sell.
Tesla will lose money on $35K TM3.


Nissan says they make money on LEAFs, selling for rather less than a Bolt or a TM3. I expect that GM might well have lost $9k, as rumor had it, on the first Bolts including fixed costs and amortization of development costs, but as production costs decline and the development costs are fully amortized, the Bolt has a real chance of making money.

tesleaf wrote:I have no reason to FUD Tesla, and I don't think $35K Tesla will ever get produced.


I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

golfcart
Posts: 170
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:26 am

WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.
2015 S with Charge Package

SageBrush
Posts: 2917
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:47 pm

golfcart wrote:
WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.

Never is a long time, but since the Federal tax credit drops to $3750 as of Jan 1st you are on safe ground regarding this Model 3 SR iteration ... unless other tax credits come into play. Colorado e.g. has a $5,000 state tax credit, and a handful of other states offer $2,000 - $2,500. And you never know, GM might use its lobbying might to renew the Federal credit.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

tesleaf
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:44 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Oct 2018
Location: Vancouver, WA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:17 pm

SageBrush wrote:
golfcart wrote:
WetEV wrote:I do think the $35k M3 will be produced.

But not as long as Tesla can sell all the more expensive and profitable LR and MR it can produce. Only once the lead time for LR and MR is down to zero days or below.


It'll probably get made but the tax credit will have long expired by then. There will never be a Tesla that sells for under $30k net IMO.

Never is a long time, but since the Federal tax credit drops to $3750 as of Jan 1st you are on safe ground regarding this Model 3 SR iteration ... unless other tax credits come into play. Colorado e.g. has a $5,000 state tax credit, and a handful of other states offer $2,000 - $2,500. And you never know, GM might use its lobbying might to renew the Federal credit.


I wish I had a relative in Colorado...
I could get $12500 off on a EV.

A Leaf S 60 kwh will be under $30K after tax credit. TM3 SR loses in my book.
And Hyundai Kona will beat both of them in terms of value.
2015 Leaf S w/ QC . I have Leaf Spy Pro.

golfcart
Posts: 170
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2015
Location: Virginia Beach, VA

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:15 pm

tesleaf wrote:A Leaf S 60 kwh will be under $30K after tax credit. TM3 SR loses in my book.
And Hyundai Kona will beat both of them in terms of value.


I went and drove a 2018 Leaf SV with cold weather and tech packages as well as a base 2018 Volt with the comfort package. Both were advertised at ~$33k.

Both were very nice cars and felt similar in terms of acceleration and throttle response. I thought the Volt was a better looking car with a nicer infotainment system that handled better than the leaf but lacked space in the back seat, had no QC capabilities, and had poor visibility . I loved the lines on the car, I liked the drivers position, and I thought the buttons were laid out well in intuitive places.

The leaf was more spacious than the Volt especially in the back seat, had the cool e-pedal system, and had more overall bells and whistles than the Volt but still has limited range and uninspired handling. It felt a little roomier than my 2015 S and I thought the cabin looked much more modern with a nicer display, better console layout, and nice integrated features like android auto and bluetooth streaming. I really liked the looks of the exterior compared to my 2015. It looks less like a tree frog and more like the typical modern Nissan design. It is a nice car and if I didn't already have the 2015 it would definitely be a good buy if I needed a car NOW.

The big takeaway from all of these test drives was that neither blew me away in comparison with my gen1 leaf and that I think I am probably committed to full electric rather than a phev because I just don't want to deal with all of the ICE issues that come with one like oil changes, emissions testing, exhaust leaks, etc... Obviously the range is my big issue with the 2015 which both cars would solve but neither made my current leaf feel slow, clunky, or outdated aside from the infotainment system which I could easily fix with a $300 head unit upgrade. The 2015 is far uglier IMO than both of these cars but I'm used to it by now and can deal with it a couple more years.

My conclusion... unless the dealership is gonna give me some ridiculous <$27k out the door and pay off my trade I don't think I'm gonna go for either. I don't want the added complexity of the Volt drivetrain and I think there is a good chance that the leaf eplus or kona EV is gonna make the 2018 leaf look like poor value over the long haul... Especially if the eplus S really gives you 200hp and 225 miles of liquid cooled range for $35k like it is rumored to do. I actually used to be big into the import tuning scene in the early 2000's and my favorite car was the old school Sentra SE-R so I might actually pony up the cash for a NISMO leaf if they every bring it to the U.S. especially if it handles well, looks more aggressive, and goes 0-60 ~6 seconds.

So I guess it is planB for now which is to QC on my way to work when it's cold out or I need to run errands and just consider it part of my morning commute. It'll save me cash and spending 10 minutes a day 4 days a week to charge for free really isn't enough of a headache to go drop $25k on a new car that isn't much of an upgrade from what I have.

Thanks for all the thoughts and advice.
2015 S with Charge Package

GerryAZ
Gold Member
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Jun 2011
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:47 pm

SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:Some of us

Change that to "at least one of us" and I'll agree with that part of your post.


Make that at least two, and I live in a hot climate.
Gerry
Silver LEAF 2011 SL rear ended (totaled) by in-attentive driver 1/4/2015 at 50,422 miles
Silver LEAF 2015 SL purchased 2/7/2015

SageBrush
Posts: 2917
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:14 am

GerryAZ wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:Some of us

Change that to "at least one of us" and I'll agree with that part of your post.


Make that at least two, and I live in a hot climate.

Who has a use profile case that is distinctly uncommon

Let's agree on "at least 1.000001 of us."
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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