2016 Leaf or wait for the 2017?

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r06ue1

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
Messages
4
I live in a cold climate (Cleveland) with a relatively long commute (65 miles both ways, mostly highway) which is why I haven't bought a Leaf (yet!), been waiting on a range I feel more comfortable with due to the harsh winters we typically get here. Anyways, been contemplating the 2016 model; I'm a Prius owner and do a pretty good job of hypermiling (65 mpg summer, 55 mpg winter, average 60 mpg year round, keep speeds at 55 MPH on highways, don't use the heat in the winter) so just wondering if anyone else is in the same predicament and believe that the 2016 is good enough or should wait for the 2017. I am looking to keep my Leaf for ten years, would like the battery to get me by for that long or close to it and allow me to still make my daily commute in the winter without recharging. What are your thoughts?
 
130 miles round trip? You have to wait. The 2016 won't do that in winter without recharging, new, let alone in 10 years.

Did you mean 65 miles round trip? I'd still wait.
 
I have a 64 mile round trip (90% highway) which I can do with no issues with my 2014 S. I try to keep my speed no more than 70 (maybe a few minutes of 75) for half the commute and then it drops to 30-50 mph in the HOV lane. Even if you would factor in the significant difference in our weather, I would think that a 2016 SV/SL would work for you.

I wish Nissan had a three day loaner program so that people can try it before they sign the dotted line. You may want to check on Turo or with other rental agencies to see if there rental leaf available in your area.
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
Did you mean 65 miles round trip? I'd still wait.

Unless you have dedicated, reliable charging at both ends of the commute, I'd agree.

Even L1 (120V) at one end would make this work. And having a warm car when leaving work would be a joy...

However, the "No Worries Range" of a 30kWh 2016 Leaf SL is more like 45 to 60 miles. What I mean by no worries range is this: in bad weather, with the car cold, car getting near end of battery life (70%), and with a reserve so you don't need to worry, and also helps to keep the battery healthy. The exact value to use would depend a bit on the local climate, how windy and hilly the commute is, how fast the commute is, and more.

As for 10 years from now, I'd suggest reading this:

http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss

I'd plan on more like 7 years in Cleveland to 70%.
 
Yeah, if you were just leasing, I'd say go for it, it'll work for you for a few years anyway, but less so as you get close to 10 years. Of course, many more workplaces could have stations by then.
 
Either way I say wait. You have Tesla announcing their Model 3 in about 6 weeks and Chevy Bolt coming in less than a year. Right now you'd likely just overpay for a lower range car if you bought a 2016 SV/SL. Even if the 2016 leaf works for you, just wait until later this year because you may find them blowing them out at discounts too good to pass up.
 
do it. you have it made. drive it like your Prius and you will be fine for AT LEAST 2 years. I say that because I have a lowly 2013 that is almost 26 months old and just drove 85 miles yesterday. it was not cold but it was rainy and heavy rain is the #1 range degradator. (wow, didn't think that was a word!) Rolling resistance is your nemesis. cold air is denser so will create more wind force against you but rain on the roadways is twice as bad.

Now, I will have to admit that there was some pretty heavy traffic which means about 12 of those miles on freeway were at 15-20 mph and there was also another stint of nearly 20 miles of surface streets at 40 mph so not all freeway. With the rain conditions, my range is closer to 78-80.


FYI; in cold dry temps, range is 87-90 miles and I only use steering wheel and seat heaters with just enough defrost to keep windshield clear.

I have to say you get a 2016 with 30 kwh batttery, you will have nothing to worry about for at least 3-4 years
 
I'm a Prius owner and do a pretty good job of hypermiling (65 mpg summer, 55 mpg winter, average 60 mpg year round, keep speeds at 55 MPH on highways, don't use the heat in the winter) so just wondering if anyone else is in the same predicament and believe that the 2016 is good enough or should wait for the 2017

Why don't you use the heat in Winter?!? Is it a PIP?
 
LeftieBiker said:
I'm a Prius owner and do a pretty good job of hypermiling (65 mpg summer, 55 mpg winter, average 60 mpg year round, keep speeds at 55 MPH on highways, don't use the heat in the winter) so just wondering if anyone else is in the same predicament and believe that the 2016 is good enough or should wait for the 2017

Why don't you use the heat in Winter?!? Is it a PIP?

Lowers the mpg; don't really feel I need it either since I'm bundled up for the cold weather and its not like I have a window down or anything so it is comfortable. I do turn it on to defog the windows if they get fogged up but other than that it stays off 99% of the time.
 
I'll probably wait, just seems like I have been waiting forever (wanted one ever since 2003 when there were none). Maybe with three 200+ range vehicles on the road, they will need to compete for customers and further lower the prices? :D
 
r06ue1 said:
I'll probably wait, just seems like I have been waiting forever (wanted one ever since 2003 when there were none). Maybe with three 200+ range vehicles on the road, they will need to compete for customers and further lower the prices? :D

Got you beat: I wanted one since 1993 (when I finally had a garage to charge one in)! Never regretted jumping in early.
 
Lowers the mpg; don't really feel I need it either since I'm bundled up for the cold weather and its not like I have a window down or anything so it is comfortable. I do turn it on to defog the windows if they get fogged up but other than that it stays off 99% of the time.

I'd guess that there is some setting - 68F, maybe? - that would not run the engine any more often than it would run anyway. You could also switch the heat on for 1 or 2 minutes when the engine starts on the highway.
 
I wouldn't wait. The 200 mile cars are going to be significantly more expensive. How much does $7K add to lease cost? Over time they will drop in price, but by then you can have lease expire.
 
I guess I missed the part where the OP says he wants to keep the car for 10 years which would mean he wants to buy it and not lease it. I would not buy a 2016 SV/SL at time and would prefer to lease as:

- This car will drop sharply in value once the cars with 200 mile range hit the market. (As it is the the depreciation is pretty steep on EVs.)

- No proven track record for the the longevity of battery life. What OP needs would be doable for first few years (3-4) but there's no surety after that.
 
200 mile EVs are going to be way more expensive for a while as everybody is going to want one. If higher cost isn't a concern and you are patient then I'd just wait. I didn't want to wait plus I didn't want to pay a premium for the 200 mile EVs so I leased a '16 SV.

You could lease and if 3 years from now the battery hasn't degraded much then buy the car at the end of the lease and keep it another 7 years.
 
WetEV said:
As for 10 years from now, I'd suggest reading this:

http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss

I'd plan on more like 7 years in Cleveland to 70%.

Thank you for that excellent link!

I've been wondering how to anticipate capacity loss over time and that pretty much answers that. It looks like I should be able to keep my Leaf in the family another 6-9 years before I need to spring for a battery replacement. Hopefully by then, it won't be so expensive. Of course it helps that I rarely charge to 100% and rarely discharge below 20%, have a moderate climate and park in the garage. :mrgreen:
 
I would not buy a 2016 SV/SL at time and would prefer to lease as:

- This car will drop sharply in value once the cars with 200 mile range hit the market. (As it is the the depreciation is pretty steep on EVs.)

- No proven track record for the the longevity of battery life. What OP needs would be doable for first few years (3-4) but there's no surety after that.

The way Leaf leases are currently configured, you are going to pay for that depreciation throughout the lease instead of avoiding it. The residuals are set so low that when the lease ends the only way to make out well financially is to buy the car, which at that point will be reasonably priced, since you have paid so much of the car's value in lease payments. So the usual approach of leasing for a couple of years to end up spending less, while waiting for a better car, isn't going to work out so well. People contemplating leasing a 2016 Leaf who have no intention of buying it should wait for the end of the year, when the cars will be less valuable to the dealers.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I would not buy a 2016 SV/SL at time and would prefer to lease as:

- This car will drop sharply in value once the cars with 200 mile range hit the market. (As it is the the depreciation is pretty steep on EVs.)

- No proven track record for the the longevity of battery life. What OP needs would be doable for first few years (3-4) but there's no surety after that.

The way Leaf leases are currently configured, you are going to pay for that depreciation throughout the lease instead of avoiding it. The residuals are set so low that when the lease ends the only way to make out well financially is to buy the car, which at that point will be reasonably priced, since you have paid so much of the car's value in lease payments. So the usual approach of leasing for a couple of years to end up spending less, while waiting for a better car, isn't going to work out so well. People contemplating leasing a 2016 Leaf who have no intention of buying it should wait for the end of the year, when the cars will be less valuable to the dealers.


Deals will be better end of year but they're pretty good now too. $288/month with only $500 down isn't bad at all. Worked out a lot better then if I purchased since I don't have enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. Buying a used leaf is definitely smarter financially, only problem is you're getting a car with capacity loss. You almost have to buy or lease new with this car for that reason unless you don't care about having a degraded battery.
 
$288/month with only $500 down isn't bad at all. Worked out a lot better then if I purchased since I don't have enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.

Is that for an S, a Base SV (no Premium Package) or an SV with premium? What's the residual? How long is the lease term? The payment isn't outstanding, but the low down payment is.
 
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