## Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

BuckMkII
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:04 am
Location: Seattle

### Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

Sorry if my Google-fu is weak. I tried several search terms and don't seem to be able to turn up an answer.

I'm shopping for an April+ 2013 or 2014 Leaf. I need to convince my spousal critter of the long-term wisdom of this choice, since we like to drive our cars into the ground (I usually keep an ICE car until it's at least 20 years old).

For that generation battery, assuming the car was/is kept in the benign climate of Seatte for its whole service life and uses primarily 120 V charging (at least after we get it), how many years are expected before the range on a charge drops to 20 miles, on 30-35 mph surface streets.? What about to 10 miles, which we could handle if we can get on the power cables at work every day?

We would probably drive the car about 5000 miles per year if we used it for all our work commuting and some errands on evenings and weekends, at least as long as we could rely on >25-30 miles per day.
2013 SV no QC, built July 2013
car grew up in San Jose CA, purchased 5/31/17 in Seattle
on 6/16/17: AHr = 56.4; SOH = 86%; Hx = 84.3; ODO = 39,250
bar 12 lost 8/21/17
on 8/23/18: AHr = 54.6; SOH = 83.5%; Hx = 78.2; ODO = 49,746

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

BuckMkII wrote:...how many years are expected before the range on a charge drops to 20 miles, on 30-35 mph surface streets.? What about to 10 miles, which we could handle if we can get on the power cables at work every day?

We would probably drive the car about 5000 miles per year if we used it for all our work commuting and some errands on evenings and weekends, at least as long as we could rely on >25-30 miles per day.

It only requires ~ 3 kWh to drive a LEAF ~"20 miles, on 30-35 mph surface streets".

That means you will be able to do that after your LEAF's pack has lost ~85% of original available capacity, far more than any LEAF pack has lost to date, even after the most miles driven, and under the most extreme conditions of use.

As long as You buy one with a reasonable number of miles, the battery will probably still meet your needs when you decide to sell the car for other reasons.

Of course, depending on your health and age, you might not survive the battery pack, or the LEAF...
no condition is permanent

BuckMkII
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:04 am
Location: Seattle

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

I'm 52, in good shape with no known major health risks. My dad made it to 89 and my mom is still doing OK in her early 80s. I work at a state university so my workplace is unlikely to move or go broke. My expectation is that my commute is unlikely to change in the next 15 or so years.

If the car doesn't become an elaborate lawn ornament until almost 2030, that would be acceptable.
2013 SV no QC, built July 2013
car grew up in San Jose CA, purchased 5/31/17 in Seattle
on 6/16/17: AHr = 56.4; SOH = 86%; Hx = 84.3; ODO = 39,250
bar 12 lost 8/21/17
on 8/23/18: AHr = 54.6; SOH = 83.5%; Hx = 78.2; ODO = 49,746

alozzy
Posts: 1078
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

Truth is, I don't think anyone can accurately speculate on how long a Leaf will go before it dies. They simply haven't been around long enough.

Buy one if you can live with it lasting for the next five years, with anything beyond that a bonus. That was my mentality when I bought my Leaf, but I likely wouldn't have done so if I lived in Seattle rather than Vancouver. Your gas prices are way cheaper.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV

jlv
Posts: 844
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:08 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

BuckMkII wrote:For that generation battery, assuming the car was/is kept in the benign climate of Seatte for its whole service life and uses primarily 120 V charging (at least after we get it), how many years are expected before the range on a charge drops to 20 miles, on 30-35 mph surface streets.? What about to 10 miles, which we could handle if we can get on the power cables at work every day?
My 3-year-old 2013 has 27K miles, is 12 at bars (AHr of 59.5), and easily gets over 70 miles of range (when not using heat or a/c). My commute is 20 miles RT and I will have no problem with range for at least a decade.
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17) 32K mi
Tesla S 75D (3/17) 25K mi
Model 3 reservation (still undecided)

Reddy
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:09 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Aug 2011
Leaf Number: 006828
Location: Pasco, WA

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

Your use case is probably the "best" for long-term viability, especially due to being in Seattle. Here's a worst case estimate: I drive a 2011 SL about 7000 mi/yr in the Tri-Cities and have lost two bars. This is with the old battery chemistry, slightly higher mileage, and much higher summertime temperature. Most of my driving is in town at 35 mph, but lately some freeway driving at 70 mph. I have been monitoring my battery and expect it to be around 75% at 6 years (in August). So, multiply 0.75x0.75x0.75x0.75=0.316 or 31.6% or the original battery in 24 years (2035). Since the original EPA range was about 75 mi, that works out to an estimated range of 23.7 mi. Now you should figure that winter range is about 75% for mild Seattle winters, so you are at just under 18 mi. Again, this is just a worst case scenario. I'll estimate that 2013-2016 Leaf will easily have a range of 30 mi in 20 years.
Reddy
2011 SL; 9 bar, 45.80 AHr; 45,000 mi; rcv'd Aug 18, 2011
Long: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... al#p226115"
Cold: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p243033"

Reddy
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:09 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Aug 2011
Leaf Number: 006828
Location: Pasco, WA

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

Oh, I forgot to mention: There's no way you'll still be driving it in 2035 because all of the newer ones will be SOOOOOOO enticing. Once you experience EV driving in town, you'll want one to go out of town.
Reddy
2011 SL; 9 bar, 45.80 AHr; 45,000 mi; rcv'd Aug 18, 2011
Long: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... al#p226115"
Cold: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p243033"

BuckMkII
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:04 am
Location: Seattle

### Re: Prediction of future range for 2013/2014 Leaf

Reddy wrote:Your use case is probably the "best" for long-term viability, especially due to being in Seattle. Here's a worst case estimate: I drive a 2011 SL about 7000 mi/yr in the Tri-Cities and have lost two bars. This is with the old battery chemistry, slightly higher mileage, and much higher summertime temperature. Most of my driving is in town at 35 mph, but lately some freeway driving at 70 mph. I have been monitoring my battery and expect it to be around 75% at 6 years (in August). So, multiply 0.75x0.75x0.75x0.75=0.316 or 31.6% or the original battery in 24 years (2035). Since the original EPA range was about 75 mi, that works out to an estimated range of 23.7 mi. Now you should figure that winter range is about 75% for mild Seattle winters, so you are at just under 18 mi. Again, this is just a worst case scenario. I'll estimate that 2013-2016 Leaf will easily have a range of 30 mi in 20 years.

That's the kind of fearless prediction I like to see!
2013 SV no QC, built July 2013
car grew up in San Jose CA, purchased 5/31/17 in Seattle
on 6/16/17: AHr = 56.4; SOH = 86%; Hx = 84.3; ODO = 39,250
bar 12 lost 8/21/17
on 8/23/18: AHr = 54.6; SOH = 83.5%; Hx = 78.2; ODO = 49,746

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