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Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:42 am
by cwerdna
garsh wrote:
cwerdna wrote:"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003 ... ations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.

They cancelled the 40 kWh S and delivered the few that ordered at the time they could 60 kWh S software limited to 40.

As for "really good", it depends what you're looking for. In terms of straight line performance, range and performance, performance on standardized crash tests, (and an excellent DC FC network) yes. It helps that they're doing this by pricing their (already expensive) vehicles in a way that causes them to lose billions of $ every year.

In terms of reliability, not so good like the folks who were on their 7th or 8th drive unit on their S: viewtopic.php?p=531626#p531626 or the laundry list of repairs on Edmunds's S: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... ap-up.html including 3 DU replacements. Replacement rate of DUs on early years of S was terrible: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1279598. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... histories/ at the bottom has average problem rates for vehicles for a given model year within a 12 month window, except for the latest where it's shorter.

The Model X is an expensive engineering and reliability disaster in large part due to the front and rear doors. I avoid vehicles with worse than average reliability rating. Model X was dead last at https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... able-cars/. The previous year, X was in the middle of the bottom 10: https://web.archive.org/web/20170706025 ... able-cars/.

Edmunds's X was terrible from a reliability POV: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2 ... ap-up.html. I have many pointers to terrible X reliability and those are just a fraction of the posts on TMC about it.

Edmund's 3 had a rocky start: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... -2018.html but seems to have gotten better. I have pointers to over a dozen causes of drive unit failure on the Model 3.

How many motor/gearbox replacements have we seen here on MNL for any reason? It's virtually nil since the Leaf came out.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:39 am
by garsh
cwerdna wrote:It helps that they're doing this by pricing their (already expensive) vehicles in a way that causes them to lose billions of $ every year.
Each S and X sold is a money-maker. The only reason why Tesla "loses" money is because they're investing in future development and production.
In terms of reliability, not so good like the folks who were on their 7th or 8th drive unit on their S
Yep, bad drive units in the beginning. They've been replaced under warranty. Current drive unit warranty is 8 years, unlimited mileage. There aren't many reports of bad drive units in S or X lately. Those initial growing pains are long over.
How many motor/gearbox replacements have we seen here on MNL for any reason?

How many battery degradation threads have their been?

The Leaf is a decent little car, but it has a HUGE FLAW - the battery. I understand why Nissan chose the cell chemistry that they did - It's extremely safe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz37WycW-7E
There have been zero reports of a Leaf battery catching on fire. But that's the only redeeming quality. It degrades terribly with heat, and the pack has no thermal management to speak of. I've seen no indications that Nissan has taken steps to improve their batteries yet. That's why I didn't buy a second Leaf to replace my first one.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:46 am
by lorenfb
garsh wrote:The only reason why Tesla "loses" money is because they're investing in future development and production.


Right! A typical corporate phrase used when near Chapter 11, e.g. a phrase used by Sears a few years ago.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:19 pm
by Dooglas
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
garsh wrote:Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.
Amazing, that some still believe this!
don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.

I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:57 am
by Oils4AsphaultOnly
Dooglas wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Amazing, that some still believe this!
don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.

I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.


You might want to check your notices more closely. The Model 3 MR ( medium range ) isn't the base model, and is available for order now for $46 (premium interior required). The $35k base model 3 is awaiting a newly designed smaller battery pack, and that's expected to be built in February.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:48 am
by garsh
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Dooglas wrote:I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.


You might want to check your notices more closely. The Model 3 MR ( medium range ) isn't the base model, and is available for order now for $46 (premium interior required). The $35k base model 3 is awaiting a newly designed smaller battery pack, and that's expected to be built in February.

Yep. Tesla hasn't been able to ramp up production enough for the SR ($35k Standard Range) version to be profitable yet. They created the MR ($46k Medium Range) car so that people who are waiting for the SR might be able to afford an MR now before the full federal rebate expires (making it $38.5k after rebate).

Dooglas may end up being right and they'll never get production at a high enough rate to make the SR profitable. But I wouldn't bet on it. I do think it may end up getting delayed until summer. We will see in about 6 months time.

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:21 am
by Dooglas
garsh wrote:Yep. Tesla hasn't been able to ramp up production enough for the SR ($35k Standard Range) version to be profitable yet. They created the MR ($46k Medium Range) car so that people who are waiting for the SR might be able to afford an MR now before the full federal rebate expires (making it $38.5k after rebate).

Dooglas may end up being right and they'll never get production at a high enough rate to make the SR profitable. But I wouldn't bet on it. I do think it may end up getting delayed until summer. We will see in about 6 months time.

As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:57 pm
by WetEV
Dooglas wrote:As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).


Tesla says the gross margin of Model 3s is over 20%
What in the rest of the numbers turns that into a loss?

At an average Model 3 production rate of about 4,300 per week in Q3 (excluding planned shutdowns), Model 3 gross margin grew
very significantly to above 20%. The mix of the Model 3 Performance version was only slightly higher than the Performance mix of
Model S and X. This strong margin growth was driven by a higher production rate while keeping fixed costs stable, significant
reductions in manufacturing costs through lower labor hours per unit, lower scrap rate, lower material costs, and higher average
selling price.


http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970 ... 2d4045f799

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:39 am
by garsh
Dooglas wrote:As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).

Tesla was actually overall profitable last quarter. That's right - they actually made money. They plan on being profitable in Q4 as well. As WetEV points out, the current versions of Model 3 being sold are already over 20% gross margin. You can argue that they won't be able to sustain that if you like, but to say that they haven't figured out how to turn a profit on the Model 3 is just straight-up lying. They're doing it.

Getting back on topic, now that the weather has gotten colder, the Leaf doesn't even try to provide regen anymore. I probably wouldn't be as upset about the 50% decrease in range so much if it wasn't for the fact that Nissan basically turns off regen for a degraded battery. I just replaced the brake pads at about 90k miles, so hopefully I won't have to replace them again before I get rid of the car (in ~3 years most likely).

Re: I've joined the 7 bars club

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:22 pm
by alozzy
Don't know what creative accounting Tesla used to convince some people that they made profit in 2017 but they definitely did not:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16986 ... production

Not being a hater, but it's misinformation that needed correcting